Okay, I’ll trust Nate Silver. Or someone with the same kind of high quality fact based track record. If they say the polls indicate we should replace Biden, then I’ll listen. Otherwise, it’s just the meaningless jabbering of internet strangers trying to pretend that their feelings are worth anything more than a pile of bull pucks.
Moderating:
You all have been far off the subject of this thread for awhile. This thread is to discuss Cenk Uygur’s potential run for president. Anything else is a hijack. Time to stop hijacking with discussions about early polls and what they mean overall in the 2024 election.
Not everyone who attempted to file for New Hampshire’s 2024 presidential primary succeeded.
Cenk K. Uygur, a progressive political commentator best known as the founder of The Young Turks, submitted a declaration of candidacy for the Democratic primary, but New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan returned the paperwork to Uygur, along with his filing fee.
“I do not accept the document and reject it as a declaration of candidacy,” Scanlan wrote in an Oct. 18 letter, notifying Uygur that his name won’t appear on the ballot.
…
“We’re definitely going to file a lawsuit and probably several lawsuits,” Uygur told the Globe. “Whether it’s going to be in New Hampshire is not determined yet.”
The next step in New Hampshire is for Uygur to go before the Ballot Law Commission to appeal Scanlan’s decision. That could happen as early as next week. If the commission affirms Scanlan’s decision, then Uygur could sue. But he’s facing a very similar situation in Nevada and said he expects to get blocked elsewhere as well, so it remains to be seen whether and where his lawsuits may ultimately land.
*… *
Uygur isn’t the first to make such a case. Abdul Karim Hassan, a naturalized US citizen from Guyana, filed several lawsuits ahead of the 2012 presidential election, including one against New Hampshire, unsuccessfully seeking ballot access on 14th Amendment and other grounds.
“If other people have not been able to make that case effectively, that’s on them,” Uygur said. “But we are going to make it very, very effectively.”
Ultimately, Uygur said his political goal is to prevent President Biden from being re-nominated because he believes Biden would lose in a rematch with former president Donald Trump.
“When democracy is on the line, you guys are going to run someone who is deeply, deeply unpopular? … The guy is at 37 percent,” he said. “Snap out of it.”
(I’ll be keeping an eye out for those lawsuits.)
Just FYI, @Superdude linked Hassan as an example, and of the multiple cases he attempted, all of which failed in the courts. I even copied a quote from said Wikipedia entry that had a familiar name as part of the denial.
But yeah, now he’s repeatedly tried to get on the ballot, but hasn’t filed suit, even though it’s been nearly 3 weeks since he was first turned down in Nevada.
I very strongly suspect he’s not filing suits because it’s expensive, or his lawyers don’t want to put their names on a case that has a clear precedent (see Hassan again) of failing on merits. But the fees for candidacy (even if not returned as they have been) are probably a whole lot lower.
So, considering all the above, it sure looks at lot more like cheap self-promotion, rather than a serious effort.
And who is this mythical candidate that’s guaranteed to win Cenk?
Start listing names of potential candidates (that actually want the job of course) that are deeply, deeply popular (other than Trump) or shut the fuck up.
I certainly can’t imagine you actually think it’s you.
Or he’s doing it for the reason he says he’s doing it: to try to provoke a genuine primary to happen. Why is this explanation off the table?
He has. He’s listed Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker and of course TYT is very fond of Bernie Sanders.
And while I’m sure that some posters here will quickly try to find something negative about all these candidates, the reality is that just about any of them should have higher ratings than Biden who is remarkably unpopular right now. According to the most recent CNN poll, for example, 67% of Democrat-voters think Biden should stand down.
So his campaign platform, then, is as thus;
Sure, if you want to see it that way. And it’s a very important message, because losing seems very likely, to a candidate whose rhetoric has only ramped up since Jan 6th e.g. the media doesn’t even blink now when he talks about executing generals that disagree with him.
The strategy right now is: pray that the economy remains strong (most Americans seem to believe we’re in a recession regardless because Biden is struggling to clap back, but we have to hope no genuine bad news surfaces), protect him from debates, try to avoid showing too much of Biden talking because it harms him, and just hope enough people want to protect Democracy because it sure doesn’t look like there’s much enthusiasm for the candidate.
never mind
It’s possible, but in this case he’s delusional. So he’s either delusional or a shameless egotist. Or, perhaps more likely, both.
All of those would be fine presidents. Thankfully, none of them have shown any interest in shooting the Democrats’ feet out by trying to run against Biden.
As for their approval ratings, none of those people have had right wing influencers around the country focused on slandering them for the last 4 years, so it’s not really a surprise if their approvals might be higher. If, say, Newsom had been president since 2021, then Newsom would be the one with low-ish approval ratings, because that’s what presidents have to deal with these days.
The strategy is to trust that the proven winners of Biden’s campaign will run a good campaign and, like 2020 and 2022, focus on Trump’s lack of fitness for office. Like 2020 and 2022, Trump himself will probably work hard to assist this strategy.
All of the things you’re worried about with Biden could happen with Newsom, Whitmer, or anyone else (aside from the attacks on his age and energy, which he already survived in 2020). There’s nothing about Newsom or Whitmer that would guarantee they would be free from “bad news”, or perform error-free in debates (we already know Biden can handle Trump in debates – he did it in 2020), or guarantee they would have tons of this mythical “enthusiasm” that supposedly Biden can’t muster (despite mustering it in 2020 and getting the most votes in election history).
Further, kneecapping Biden could enrage millions of Democrats who like him and want him as president.
This idea that there’s something uniquely bad, or dangerous, or whatever, about Biden as an incumbent candidate is just made up. This is exactly the same as the arguments in 2012, except that the criticism of Obama was about arrogance, or unpopularity with working whites, or whatever. This is just the same old story – Democratic president has a successful first term, and a handful of worry-warts run around with their hair on fire for a bunch of silly ideas spread by egotists, the delusional, and grifters. You’re just following someone else’s script, but it’s the same script from 2012 and likely many times before. It’s not going to happen – Biden’s running, and he’s going to win the nomination, barring something truly unusual (and in truly unusual circumstances, Democrats will have to improvise, but nothing is unusual at all right now).
How so? We had someone upthread call him delusional, I explained how he isn’t, and the response was “well he’s dishonest then”. We’re going in circles here.
Please answer the question: Why can it not simply be the reason that he says he’s running?
Of course any candidate would be attacked by the right-wing media (yes there would be a “Newsom crime family” or whatever bollocks), but it is still noteworthy how poorly Biden is polling, even among Democrats. Plus how Biden is depicted on left-wing and international media.
Like I say, hope.
The election was far too close last time, and now Biden is 4 years older.
And I think what you aren’t saying is interesting here. It’s not like you’re coming back with “No, we want to get Biden as much screen time as possible, it’s great for him” or “Americans know the economy is going great, so a minor hiccup won’t be an issue”.
Sure, this could be so. And if he really believes this, then he’s delusional, because there’s no rational case for how his fake candidacy would lead to a real primary challenge.
I don’t find any of this particularly interesting or notable. I think this is just how it is now. Your feelings might be different, but these are just feelings (mine too). And as noted before, there’s zero evidence that general election polls this early have any correlation with election results.
All of this could apply to the other potential candidates. I think Biden generally does fine on screen. The more voters see, the clearer it should be that he’s still sharp, and clearly not incapable. It’s just the dishonestly edited snippets that make him look bad, just as they did for Obama (though in other ways).
You’re relying on hope too. It’s just a different hope, based on different feelings.
I’m going to trust the proven winners in Biden’s campaign. Not some fantastical series of events in which someone replaces him and this replacement is somehow the perfect Democratic candidate, immune to all the typical possibilities of mistakes and bad luck of presidential campaigns. It’s still feelings, but I still can’t understand how someone can think their feelings are rational if they’d rather trust this kind of fantasy over a proven campaign team.
Please stop talking about feelings.
Anyway, interesting piece on Morning Joe just now; mostly discussing running a spoiler candidate for Trump but also tacitly agreeing with much of Cenk’s point. And no, I don’t trust No Labels either but it was interesting to hear Joe and Mika relaying a lot of concerns about Biden as a candidate (go to 4:20)
MSNBC : What’s the Plan B if Trump is leading Biden next summer
Meh, their job is to get views, which means be “concerned” about Biden.
Yet they beat the drum for Biden on nearly a daily basis.
Anyway, since we’ve been warned about keeping on topic already, I would simply say this: Cenk is clearly not alone in his observation and opinion on Biden’s polling, and that it is alarming for the election.
Sure, as alarming as any other election. Nothing special about this one.
Then we need to take Sanders off the table, because he is older than Biden.
And I disagree. 2/3rd of democrats wanting Biden to stand down (in fact 75% in some polls) is not SOP.
But I guess we just have to agree to disagree.
I think Sanders is off the table, but I meant age in a relative sense here; Biden had lost a beat in 2020 and, sorry to say, I think there has been a noticeable decline since.
I relish watching Sanders on the debate stage; his appearances in hostile environments like FOX “town halls” have been fantastic. Whereas I would watch a Biden debate through my fingers at this point.
Sure, I’ll grant it’s possible but IMHO I feel what he has done, and How he has done it indicates far less noble purposes. For examples of the first, given some of his statements of wanting to have other, qualified candidates challenge Biden, he should be working WITH them, ideally BEFORE demanding such things. If he is the influential progressive he claims to be, then influencing said individuals (Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker and Bernie Sanders from your list) should be priority number one. But we have no evidence of such, or at least non that Cenk has reported.
Secondly in the “what he’s done” category, is that he keeps applying to run in various Primaries. This gets -him- free publicity, and funnels people back to him and his podcasts / channels, but I see little to no evidence he’s boosting the others. A quick quote from Cenk’s Facebook page:
We would love your support in New Hampshire! We are going in for an incredibly important meeting in front of the Ballot Law Commission to see if we can get my name on the NH ballot. Let the voters decide!
If you can show up, you’d obviously be an American hero. Arrive at STATE ARCHIVES BUILDING 9 RATIFICATION WAY CONCORD NH 03301 at 9:15am on Thursday. The hearing is at 10am.
If you can, bring signs saying either “Let Him Run” or " Let Us Vote." We would love some New Hampshire heroes to carry us to victory. Come and ask them to let you vote. Make your voice heard. Thank you!!
Now, to be clear, this is HIS Facebook page, one supporting / being supported by his show. Of course he can or should put his interests first by the principles of enlightened self interest. But it doesn’t support his periodic suggestions that he’s doing it just to get other candidates to join in for a challenge. It all just leads back to him.
Now we move on to the HOW he does things. The first is something we had all mostly agreed on upthread, in that if we did have a contested primary, that you don’t want to damage the possibilities of those who would then almost certainly have to face Trump. Using your own example @Mijin, compliment Biden, but boost the issues you feel are more important. But from @Hatchie’s quoted language, he’s instead talking about how deeply unpopular Biden is (and using an overall average, which while likely correct, does include Republican voters, who would likely have almost if not equally low popularity for ANY Democrat, and probably worse for any who knew about Cenk as a NOT random example).
Yeah, that’s very counterproductive if you’re trying to build any candidate who is going to Beat Trump, which is Cenk’s stated goal. And while running for President, even if there is clear precedent for his ineligibility isn’t wrong, doing it, and then claiming you’re going to challenge such rulings WITHOUT doing so is fundamentally dishonest. Sure, it’s not illegal, and it may even be clever from the sense of building brand, but it’s dishonest. So if he’s dishonest here, dishonest or, at best, ineffective at attempting to boost someone else, and being counterproductive to his own stated claims of Beating Trump, then the evidence supports my conclusions that he’s in this for himself first, even though he has some completely valid points as well.
You are absolutely free to give him the benefit of the doubt. I have zero reasons to doubt your honest feelings, but I have several to doubt his. I’m saying this because I want to be extra clear that I’m not doubting your intentions, good faith, or honest hope as a poster and my evaluation of Cenk as a candidate, news personality, or person.