Charlie Cook is touting the latest FOX News poll. It's a barnburner!

But when I saw it linked on Facebook by “The Pollsters” (Margie Omero and Kristin Soltis Anderson, who have a great podcast and appear regularly on cable news and the Sunday network shows), all they would say is that Cook (a legendary prognosticator and analyst) was touting it–not why.

Opening it up breathlessly, I expected maybe a huge Hillary blowout number. But it was surprisingly only a relatively mundane (by this point) seven point lead. The key is to look at the generic ballot, and especially the trendline. Go ahead, I’ll wait.

:eek: Holy fucking shit. Right?

Please, please let this carry through to November 8. This could be the best goshdarn holiday season ever! :smiley:

Would it be possible to copy and post the relevant part? It appears my browser is not letting me view the PDF at the moment for some reason…

The margin moved 5 points. But the MoE for the margin is +/-6.

That may still reflect a real shift, of course, but I wouldn’t build a narrative based on one poll.

I’m seeing a 62-page document. Can you be more specific? What page should we look at?

It’s also 62 pages. Could you point out the amazing part, please?

The only trend line I’m seeing is that no one knows what we’re supposed to be looking at.

I believe the trend of reading significance into the expected close polling in presidential elections continues.

I’m out and about now and on my phone. But it is the generic ballot: which party people prefer for their House race. Just a few pages in.

Be sure to look at how much it has changed just in the past few weeks. Also, re all the griping: I’m giving a lot more info than they gave on Facebook! Maybe I should have stayed more mysterious like they did (which is not normally their MO BTW).

I have followed Charlie Cook for 20 years and I only remember him predicting a wave election twice: 2006, and 2010. He was of course right both times. I’m not saying that’s exactly what he said–apparently he just advised people to look at this poll–but still.

I think all 62 pages are just the bee’s knees. Good stuff there. I have never seen a 62 page document that just nailed it like this. Sure, I’ve seen better 59 page documents. I once saw a 64 page document that was like tongue-kissing God every time I scrolled down.

I might request the mods change the title of the thread to, “Once you see this you won’t believe it!”

For those interested, I believe the trendline being touted is question 7 on page 6 of the document.

I’m still not sure what or why Charlie Cook is touting, and why his touting is a big deal.

FWIW today’s Cook Political Report:

Am i reading it wrong or are you? The list of dates for the polls only includes 2 from this year. So either you’re inferring a trend line from 2 polls or you mistook the others listed as being from this year. Or is it some other misunderstanding on my part altogether?

(It’s on page 6 btw)

That poll was made on Oct 10-12, i.e. Monday-Tuesday. Things might have changed a bit since.

I would note that a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 as Cook currently prognosticates would make the scenario of this OP pretty realistic: the GOP with a House majority but not enough cohesion to elect a Speaker. If anyone has speculations as to what happens then please comment there.

Correct. An 8-point margin in the generic ballot is probably what the Dems need to see to have a shot at House control.

Right now, the polls suggest it’s a 4-point margin. Maybe it will double and this Fox News poll is the harbinger of that. But pinning your narrative to a single poll is silly. The MoE is too big.

This poll funded by the DCCC by The Global Strategy Group (rated C+ by 538 with a D+1.9 lean) has been getting some talk.

Getting to that 8 point likely generic ballot lead needed range.

Give me a few polls like that from better rated houses without such a big D lean and I’ll take it seriously.

Unleash Michelle!

This term does not appear.

I didn’t think anyone unfamiliar with the terminology would open a Charlie Cook thread.