It’s pretty obvious that China’s intentions aren’t solely to plunder the planet for its resources and to churn out sub-standard, low priced exports. After all, Communists always have an agenda and are still red beneath their knock-off Armani suits.
With their soft push into the Asia-Pacific region; their on-going support of rouge, bellicose regimes like Burma and North Korea; how seemingly eager they are to saber rattle it any trifle they deem bravado worthy and their military secrecy, is this continent spoiling to be the West’s next adversary? Hypothetical: If North Korea makes a run for the South and Iran sees this as an opportunity to exhibit its nefarious wares in the Middle-East - both at the apathy-cum-blessing of China - who does the world turn to given the US are stretched form here to there scrapping for oil and mortgage repayments, the Russians are by and large drunk and Japan hasn’t perfected their Gundam mechs yet?
China has established it wants to be a regional power long before now. Nothing you mention is new or surprising. And it’s certainly not worth a pre-emptive attack. Especially since China is just too damned large to hit everything we’d need to and their military is too good to do it painlessly. Plus, of course, China has nukes.
Hypothetical: China wouldn’t be apathetic if NK started a hot war. They have as much reason to not let it get out of line as anyone does. In fact, keeping NK from going out of control is probably the reason they do actively support it.
Regardless of that, the answer is America. We’re obligated by treaty to defend several nations in the area if need be.
According to someone I know stationed in S. Korea, China regards the North as a sort of albatross around their neck. Noko goes hat in hand so often for such a wide variety of things - like food - that it’s getting old even for China. But the likely result of a breakdown in govt control would mean millions of Noko’s hoofing it to China - and that’s the last thing they want.
We have a few allies like that - countries we can’t abandon but which manage to piss us off on a regular basis.
I seriously doubt that China would support Noko in any pre-emptive attack. Also, common wisdom is that they are not at all happy about NK having a nuke - even a shitty nuke that only sorta detonates.
Your 1950s Communist bashing is pitiful. The Chinese weren’t ever really communists and now they’re closer to the pre-new deal US in many ways - Completely capitalist with a fair bit of corporatism thrown in. The party name is merely an anachronism to give the illusion of continuity and avoid confronting the propaganda and catastrophies of the Mao era.
How is this different from the US’s foreign policy for the last century? Increase economic and cultural influence while having a big military stick as a deterrant to keep people in line. Support whoever is in your interest without regard to morality and ethics. Lets just hope they’re a bit less militaristic and interventionist than the US eh?
China wouldn’t let NK invade South Korea. Like anybody who is already winning through economic power what they want is stability above all else. China would be more likely to ‘liberate’ NK themselves than let them start a war with the US.
They also have mine fields between them. And if we are talking about a general collapse, for most they’d have a nation full of chaos to cross before they got to the border.
Everything I’ve ever heard suggests that China’s biggest single concern in regard to North Korea is the aforementioned massive influx of refugees that would surely stream into China if North Korea’s regime collapsed.
China doesn’t like North Korea, but it doesn’t want to see North Korea fall apart because then China has to deal with millions of refuges coming in through their borders. China doesn’t want to just roll in and take over North Korea because that gives them the same problem of the refuges and only really alleviates it a little bit by keeping them in China proper.
China definitely doesn’t want to see South Korea invaded by North Korea, China is a major trading partner with South Korea and has no reason to see the entire Korean peninsula become an economic wasteland.
But it is also true that without the logistical and air assets the US brings to the table, the cost of doing it alone would be far to much for a small country like South Korea to pay (ie: every South Korean asset within cannon range of the DMZ being obliterated… like Seoul).
China has no ability or desire to directly confront the United States (except, perhaps, over Taiwan, but if they were to make a move it will not be in the near future.) China is very practical when it comes to foreign affairs, and we all do better as friends than we do as enemies. The saber rattling is just noise designed to appease internal nationalists- the Party manipulates their nationalism and needs their support, but recognizes that the extreme patriots could easily get out of control and pose a threat.
This is less true than the popular hype would have you believe. While the economic system has certainly shifted towards capitalism, the political structure has barely changed at all. The actual political organization of the country is strikingly Leninist. It’s important to remember that state-owned corporations still represent 1/3 of the GDP, and state influence on business currently seems to be growing, not shrinking.
Which has resulted in a massive soft counter move by the US over this past year, especially in regards to South East Asia (Vietnam in particular). I think this move really surprised China, even somewhat humbling their faith in blank check policies used to deal with third-rate Asian dictatorships
Soft power is more than just piles of cash and lavish VIP welcome parties. There is a big cultural component. Anyone who has traveled around Asia would know that Mainland Chinese culture isn’t embraced nearly to the level that American culture is…or Korean, or even Japanese.
They might want to shake down their A-list diplomats as well. Especially after this gem.
This has been going on slowly for more than a decade - at least back to the Clinton, and maybe Bush (1). I am glad that the Obama administration is continuing the push, though. Vietnam is a potentially valuable ally.
Um, what? The Chinese were “really communists” for the entirety of Mao’s reign and many years after. They did the seizing private property thing, the collectivizing farms things, the mass slaughter of dissidents thing, the state control of media and culture thing, and every other thing that’s generally expected from communists. It’s true that they’ve made quite a bit of progress towards freedom and democracy lately, but to say that they’re “completely capitalist” is flat wrong. The 2010 Index of Economic Freedom puts China at number 140 out of 179 nations, in the same league as Argentina, Vietnam, Bolivia, and other centralized economies.
It’s not. As far as foreign policy is concerned, China is taking a page from the USA’s playbook. Act by subverting democracy and propping up puppet dictatorships whenever possible. Engage in direct military conflict only as a last resort. Freely give truckloads of money and weapons to anyone who will be a temporary ally without regard to long-term consequences.
My guess is that any power bigger than China will get diplomats, while any smaller power, will get read the riot act and reminded about manifest destiny, china style.
You will notice that in the articles mentioned about soft power. The term itself brings to mind, influence, bribery, blackmail, and intimidation. As opposed to hard power, which is projecting military force.
To me , that simply means that China has pragmatically accepted that being an adversary to the US and allies will not have a happy ending, the rest of the world on the other hand is fair game.
Re Japan, this I would say is China picking a fight in a controlled arena. The point is to force a choice on Japan, make lots of money in contracts or be concidered the enemy, one of the ones that are well within range.
Minxin Pei on the recent Japan-China spat. He essentially infers that China cashed out their much of their regional goodwill and leverage over a very trivial affair.
