Its 6am and I have just arrived home after a large night out, enjoying the company of several returnee friends.
On the 25-minute taxi ride home, I fell into an indepth discusion with my driver about the China-Taiwan stand-off.
His views, with which I tended to agree, are that a war between China and Taiwan is less likely now than it was 3 or 4 years ago, for one major reason on each side of the dispute.
China: With its economy booming, China now has more to lose if war broke out - and it knows that, assuming the current trend in global economics continues, Taiwan is going to want to be more and more associated businesswise with China so will move slowly but surely in it direction.
Taiwan: The island will calm its rhetoric as it is becomes less sure of itself because of the above shift in ties and, perhaps as importantly, it is now (in the current geopolitical situation) much less likely to get a stretched and battle-stung United States to come to its rescue in a fight - especially one provoked by Taiwan.
I’m certainly in the camp that there is a much smaller chance of outright hostilities now that ever before.
I would add to the China side, a new generational leadership has taken over.Whilst they are not doves (Hu Jintao made his bones in Tibet), they are of a much more modern, educated and international mindset.
Also keep in mind that China could “invade” Little Jinmen Island, which you can basically hit with a rock from Xiamen, at any time if they really wanted to go down the path of brinkmanship. It’s also worth remembering the live fire exercises in the Taiwan shipping lanes during 1996 - nothing has occured like that since.
I think the cabbie is off base regards Taiwan (and he’s probably never even been there). The average Taiwanese doesn’t think about the geopolitics of US support. Most accept the current don’t rock the boat and remain de facto if not de jeure independant.
IMHO, within 10 years and probably within 5 years, an economic integration and political reproachment of some sort will be achieved. There are estimates of anywhere from 500k to 2 million Taiwanese living and working in China at any one time - that’s up to 10% of the entire Taiwanese population. There is massive investment in China from big Taiwanese corporates to multitudes of small business owners. Look to the example of the EU, where France and Germany gave up their sovereign currency.
I also think the best thing to help cross straits relations is for Taiwan to open up to Mainland tourism. People in the Mainland simply have nothing but the propaganda they grew up with when evaluating Taiwan. I remember the huge sea change that occured in Taiwanese perception of China when they started to freely visit China in the late 1980’s.