Suppose China decided it wanted Siberia, the part where they’re discovering all the minerals and petroleum, now that the Soviets can’t keep private enterprise out anymore. Suppose the Chinese just decided to go in and take it. They’ve always had their eyes on that section of Asia anyway.
- Would Russia fight for it? I say yes.
- Would Russia win? I say no. I say the Chinese would just steamroller right over them. The Russians are too disorganized and demoralized, besides which all their power base is west of the Urals, and just the sheer logistics of trying to conduct a war in Siberia from a place 5,000 miles away would be very difficult. Also, their infrastructure (railroads, highways, etc.) is crumbling fast. They wouldn’t even be able to get men and munitions to where they needed them, in time.
- Would the U.S. step in? Very tricky question. Russia just joined NATO, yes? No? I lost track of it, sorry. Anyway–would Uncle Sam decide to once again play the World Policeman, upsetting our new Chinese trade friends? Would we impose economic sanctions (look how well those are working with Iraq)? I say yes, Uncle Sam would once again (stupidly, IMHO) decide to stick his long nose in. Next question then becomes–
- Would this provoke the use of Chinese nuclear weapons? Would they be threatened/annoyed enough to use them? Would we shoot back? Are we looking at World War III over the issue of Siberian mineral rights?
What do you think?