China vs. Russia--who would win? And would the U.S. step in?

Great Debates
1

Suppose China decided it wanted Siberia, the part where they’re discovering all the minerals and petroleum, now that the Soviets can’t keep private enterprise out anymore. Suppose the Chinese just decided to go in and take it. They’ve always had their eyes on that section of Asia anyway.

  1. Would Russia fight for it? I say yes.
  2. Would Russia win? I say no. I say the Chinese would just steamroller right over them. The Russians are too disorganized and demoralized, besides which all their power base is west of the Urals, and just the sheer logistics of trying to conduct a war in Siberia from a place 5,000 miles away would be very difficult. Also, their infrastructure (railroads, highways, etc.) is crumbling fast. They wouldn’t even be able to get men and munitions to where they needed them, in time.
  3. Would the U.S. step in? Very tricky question. Russia just joined NATO, yes? No? I lost track of it, sorry. Anyway–would Uncle Sam decide to once again play the World Policeman, upsetting our new Chinese trade friends? Would we impose economic sanctions (look how well those are working with Iraq)? I say yes, Uncle Sam would once again (stupidly, IMHO) decide to stick his long nose in. Next question then becomes–
  4. Would this provoke the use of Chinese nuclear weapons? Would they be threatened/annoyed enough to use them? Would we shoot back? Are we looking at World War III over the issue of Siberian mineral rights?

What do you think?

2

  1. Russia would have to fight. National pride would demand nothing less.

  2. Russia would probably lose for the reasons you specified.

  3. The U.S. would almost certainly step in if for no other reason than to show China we will not tolerate a land grab like that. Small African countries grabbing mostly worthless land from each other is one thing. A world power making a land grab would have to be resisted if only to set a precedent.

  4. I doubt China would use them but I could see Russia using them. About the only way a country can maybe get away with using nukes would be on their own land defending their country. Unless someone was about to march on Beijing I doubt China would roll out the nukes. If China did use them against Russia they’d instantly find the world arrayed against them and not just the US and Russia. Besides, China knows if they nuked us they’d be turned into a glass parking lot in short order…nobody wins.

3

No Russia and NATO still do not generally get along well. Poland entered NATO, and I THINK Hungary?

Yeah, I think the US would come to Russia’s aid, just to keep China from being any more a pain in the ass than it already is.

4

I think Russia would fight aswell . I also agree with your assessment of who would win in a battle .
I do think that Russia would also weigh up their options and it could easily go nuclear . Since Russia has (even since the break up of the USSR ) a huge nuclear arsenal it could launch a significant attack on China . China would retaliate with it’s large arsenal of weapons . MAD ( mutually assured destruction ) would be the result . If the US intervened the attacks could escalate and although it to has a huge amount of nuclear weapons itself there would be enormous damage inflicted upon it . This would bring NATO into this conflict . After that it would be a case of "would the last person alive , please turn off the lights "

Or the UN could stop it before it all started :rolleyes:

5

it would be a huge furball for sure. But before you write off Russia, and before they used any nukes, they would use a great deal of chemicals, which are a large part of their land war doctrine (especially in a large conflict).

I don’t know much about China’s NBC capabilities or their counter-measures but I doubt they are up to any standard of what Russian doctrine trained for in a European War.

As for the US stepping in? Probably not at first, but by the time chemical and tac. nuke attacks started it would feel the need to, but for which side? The dirty land grabbers? The evil chem users?

And the US wouldn’t want to work alone, but they couldn’t do it as a UN force. Maybe get NATO to step in? Who knows?

6

Russia would definetly fight.

Russia has more bio/chem stuff, I think. And less reason not to use it. Russia has been fending off China for centuries. I doubt they are going to play nice now. China has a manpower advantage, and maybe a military one. I’m not sure if I trust everything a commie government puts out. The USSR certainly overinflated their military. :slight_smile:

Either way, it’s a big mess. Wouldn’t be worth it to go nuclear, as the US certainly hasn’t let all it’s arsenal go to pot, and wouldn’t stand for an escalation like that. We have more and more accurate nukes, which both Russia and China know. So they stay with the messy but less radioactive solution. The US holds back, hoping Russia wins. Clinton would whine and try to stop things. I’d let Russia stomp on them all they wanted (assuming things went Rosy for them), then come in and settle the problem peacefully.

Another thing to think of… a war sure would pull Russia together, wouldn’t it?

7

Well, I think it’s pretty much agreed here that Russia’s army is in disarray… what if China were to underestimate them? What if China marched in, expecting minimal, slow, and disorganized resistance, but met a counterstrike much stronger than expected?

A few more things to think about would be India, Pakistan, and Tibet. Those three areas certainly don’t like China a whole helluva lot, and China would want to retain enough troops in order to stave off a potential scuffle with either of those areas.

So… potential underestimate + potential problems with other neighbors = better chances for Russia.

I think the US probably would get involved, even if not overtly. I would imagine that the military would be willing to “lend” Russia weapons, ammo, supplies, etc., and maybe (minimal) access to less-secret intelligence sources, if it would mean the opportunity to layeth the smacketh down on China’s candy ass. Another plus: This would mean that Russia would owe us one (although it’s really easy for them to not care on that one… oh well).

8

I see a couple of people assuming that China’s mind works the same way our minds work, that they would care what the rest of the world thought, as to whether they’d use nukes or not. I see China as frankly not giving a damn what the rest of the world thinks; if they think they need whatever’s in Siberia, I see them going after it hammer and tongs, and Nellie bar the door.

I think India and Pakistan have enough on their plates with each other to worry about, I don’t think they’d be interested in getting involved. I think the Himalayas make a pretty good psychological barrier between India and China.

I don’t think Tibet has the right mindset to be able to organize any kind of armed resistance, not without heavy U.S. aid, both military and in the form of encouragement.

Ultimately, I think China would just scoop up whatever they wanted, and after a bit of sabre-rattling, the rest of the world would shrug and go on with business. I can’t see Uncle Sam risking WWIII, when it’s so comfy here with the Dow Jones average pumping away. WWIII would risk all that. Also, policy is being set now in the U.S. by an aging Boomer population, with all of their knee-jerk Vietnam-era anti-war feelings. Look at the outcry at the prospect of sending land troops to Bosnia. Clinton had to do that sucker in the air if he was gonna do it at all. How in the world would a U.S. president persuade people to send their sons to save the remains of the Soviet Union from the remains of the Cultural Revolution? “Give 'em each a knife, lock 'em in a room together, and let 'em fight it out.” People won’t buy the “Russia is our ally” line anymore, because they aren’t. They’re just another customer, and not a very good one at that–they never pay their bills. Ask McDonalds and PepsiCo.

The Prez would have to push the “we have to help Russia or else the Chinese might use nukes” button pretty hard, and even then I personally wouldn’t be convinced that it would do any good.

I know if my son were 18 and the Prez tried to draft him to go rescue Russia from China, the very next morning he’d be in the car and on the road to Sault St. Marie, no doubt about it.

And the United Nations? It is to laugh. Look what a good job they did in Bosnia. They’re a peacekeeping force, but when peace is already gone and it’s officially “war”, I don’t think there’s anything the U.N. can do except make speeches. I’m such a cynic, I know.

9

Russia’s war machine is quite dilapidated – probably more than even we realize.

But the Russian people would put up a good fight, out of pride if nothing else.

The heroism of the Russians in holding back the Nazis in terrible conditions was instrumental in the allies winning WWII.

Disarray goes away in a big hurry when your country has something to rally around, particularly a singular theme - protection of the motherland from the evil horde.

Would either side use nukes? Wouldn’t make a lot of sense for China, if they’re interested in the land to develop its resources. Wouldn’t make sense for Russia, either, because it would have to very much be a last resort to do such a thing to your own land.

Would the U.S. get involved? Probably, but only as a participant with NATO. That in and of itself would render ineffective the involvment of other parties besides Russia and China. We all saw how hamstrung the NATO forces were in doing anything effective in Kosovo. Too many politicians.

Who would win? Nobody. China would have the manpower to take and hold Russian land, but unless they eradicated the Russian people, they would never be able to cease hostilities - both open military conflict and covert terrorism/guerilla warfare.

It would be a very long and very bloody struggle.

10

I agree with Milossarian. It would likely endup as a protracted guerilla struggle. Afganistan / Vietnam on a continental scale.

11

And I don’t think that China, even with their “fuck the world” attitude, would be so ambitious to go after more than a small sliver of Russia’s land. What I mean is, they wouldn’t immediately go out seeking to annex all of Siberia (a huge area), they’d go out and say, for example, that a few hundred square miles of land is theirs. If there were no overt reaction, they’d probably go after another small chunk.

Anyway, there’re dozens of ways something like that could be played out. Personally, I don’t think it would happen in the near future (the next year or two). However, given the fact that Russia’s economy is splat, I don’t think it too great of an unliklihood.

12

I think the US would step in, if for no other reason than those two have nuclear weapons and the winds would carry their fallout to American soil. It’s a valid consideration.

Also, I think Russia would fight, at a time like this, it would be too demoralizing not too. Their economy is collapsing, the government is under siege from within. They’d have to.

And China would win, if we let them.

13

Siberia? The Russians don’t even want Siberia! Thats where they send people they don’t like!

If Russia attacked Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?

14

Russia doesn’t want Siberia? That’s where they send people they don’t like? Do you have proof of this, Elucidator? :smiley:

15

Eh, maybe I read too many National Geographics and Smithsonians and Discovers, and watch too much PBS, but according to all these authorities, Siberia is clearly poised to be the Next Big Thing. Kamchatka’s the next big Tourist Destination, Outer Mongolia’s booming (yes, I know they’re a sovereign nation, but China has never been really persuaded of that), Lake Baikal is the Next Big Sierra Club/Greenpeace Hot Button Issue. Then there are all the “-stan” countries formerly known as Soviets, that are all north and west of China and Outer Mongolia. Look at a map–there’s a huge chunk of territory full of minerals, timber, and oil, with nobody really looking after it. Moscow’s too far away.

I give the Chinese 10 years, 20 years max, before they decide to go for it.

Siberian home page from friends-Partners.org

Siberian natural resources list from website

16

Unless I’m mistaken, Siberia is just BURSTING with profitable natural resources. Timber, coal, oil. Plus it can attract tourists (history + hotsprings…). It’s got plenty going for it.

17

Nothing pulls a country out of disillusionment and depression like a good ol’ fashion throw down. At the cost of millions of Russians I think it would do the country good. Besides, sacrificing millions of people is what Russia is best at.

18

DDG, you almost had it. China DOSEN’T think like us. They take an extremely long view of things. I do not see a conventional invasion as a short term posibility. While China’s army is HUGE, it is poorly equiped. Russia dosen’t have the moxy to stand against them conventionaly, but they would use chemical and persistent biological agents, and maybe tac nukes. They could kill millions of Chinese soldiers in a reletively short geographical distance. I would think they would view it as an extention of the “scorched earth” policy that has worked so well for the Russians for centuries, sacrificing a band of land a hundred or so miles wide to stop the Chinese. With the right persistent agents, the Chinese army could not even cross this area, because they don’t have the MOPP gear for all their soldiers. I am sure the Chinese know this. Their atitude is that if things are favorable today, they will be even more so in 10 or 20 years. They would wait. I HOPE that revolutionary forces in China will be able to gain more control in that time, softening China’s stance towards the rest of the world. With the right combination of circumstances, in 10-20 years China could be in the same mess that the former Soviet Union is in today.

19

If it ever did happen, you can be absolutely positive the United States would intervene, as they are absolutely unable to mind their own freaking business. I still don’t understand why there were US troops in Somalia.

20

If China were to invade, they would do it on such a massive scale that Russia would not be able to hold it back. I believe Russia would go nuclear immedietly. they would deem it the only way to stop China.

China would also have to be careful in planning an invasion so they wouldn’t be hampered by Russia’s winter.

The U.S. would almost definitely get involved as part of a NATO force, probably on the side of Russia. Screw the commie bastards in China.