$70 on the Democratic field
$30 on Bush
Same here. I figure Hillary is >98% certain to win the Dem nomination (and the remaining <2% is the possibility that she is incapacitated by stroke, heart attack, or whatever), so in this hypothetical, I’m all but guaranteed to come out with $126.67 from the Hillary part of the bet, and I’ll add either $10 or $0 from my bet on the R field, for an expected value of ~$129.
If I had a clear sense of who was going to win the GOP nomination, I’d put more money down on that side, but I figure whatever money I bet there, I’m equally likely to be wrong as I am right, so I’ll minimize my bets there. If I bet N dollars on the GOP side, whoever I bet on, my expected winnings from that bet are N dollars.
Run, Mitt, run!!
Nah, ain’t happening. The problem with the ‘Jeb drops out, Mitt steps in’ scenario is that Jeb won’t drop out unless he’s clearly not going to do well. And part of that process will be people deciding they prefer other candidates. So if Mitt were to jump in as Jeb dropped out, he wouldn’t just have an easy sell to voters who might’ve wanted Jeb if he’d been a more adept candidate. He’d have to pry them away from Scotty, or Rubio, or Cruz, or whoever.
OTOH, if he did jump in at that point, he’d have gotten to skip six months of pre-primary campaign hassle, which probably figures big in his mind.
I still don’t think it’ll happen, though I’m eager to be proven wrong.
Originally, it was a joke, but as time passes, it becomes more plausible. And I’m not thinking “Mittens steps in” but “Mittens is dragged in”. The Money Pubbies had a plan for Jeb, a money avalanche for Jeb like they did for his bro. Thing is, for his brother, it was shock and awe. You’ll remember, one day he wasn’t anyone special, couple days later, he was it! Didn’t work. He still has a strong chance, as the candidate by default, but that is Plan B.
Then there was the Pubbie plan to shorten the procedure and avoid the internal bloodbath, and that didn’t work either. So what I’m thinking is that after all the announced candidates chew each other up, the exhausted Party just says “Fuck it, Mittens. He almost won before!”.
I picked this because I think it maximizes my total winnings. Hillary will win, and Jeb won’t. About $198.
Gimme $50 on the Dem field and $50 on the GOP field.
I don’t gamble even in quatloos, but I predict it will be Hillary and Jeb.
$95 HRC, $5 on Jeb.
$100 says America loses.
I like this one most of all.
Keeping with the OP, I’ll take 90 on the Dem field (and if I tease the bet by saying it’ll be Warren, what odds will I get?), 10 on the GOP field.
5 clams on the Dem field.
95 clams on the Republican field.
3.5 months later, and I’m feeling pretty good. It seems less likely Clinton will get the nom than it did then.
According to the probabilities here you have chosen the least likely outcome and bet on it an inefficient way. The expected value of the ticket you hold is $95.60. This is not great since it cost $100.
Oddly enough. This bet is the maximum expected value ($123). Maybe I should start listening to Clothahump in political threads. He seems to know what he’s talking about.
Given the state of the race, I’ll put all 100 on the Republican field.
That’s not a legal bet per the rules in the OP. You must put at least $5 on each side.
Not to mention, the odds have somewhat shifted since mid-May.
I’d like to place bets on a lot of things at mid-May odds or prices.
Good point.
Current prices (based on predictwise probabilities linked above) are more like Clinton 13:37 and Bush 16:9.
Yes, that constitutes predictions about how people will bet, and how much, not how they’ll vote, but still.