Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread

Aren’t there at least some laws in some jurisdictions against cyberbullying? What he did is pretty much the cyberbully equivalent of shouting fire in a crowded theater. There will be a stampede.

General query: At what point are conservatives finally going to start admitting that they are part of the “political class”, the “highbrow press”, the “tv media”, and all the other “forms of media” as well?

We’ve got Fox News, we’ve got conservative talk radio, we’ve got Breitbart, we’ve got the Tea Party, we’ve got the corridors of power chock-full of influential conservatives, many of whom still support Trump.

But when a conservative politician steps on his own dick and starts garnering a bunch of well-earned contempt and criticism, many conservatives still try to play that tired old card about being the unsophisticated down-home underdogs who are getting ganged up on by the Machiavellian “insider” elites.

You’re not fooling anybody anymore, folks.

:confused: You don’t? Are you older than, say, 45? Most older adults can expect to have at least a general awareness of the sorts of things they thought and said when they were 30-years-younger adults. (With the usual “if you can remember the sixties you weren’t there” exceptions, I suppose. ;))

In any case, if you really have no idea what you were like 30 years ago, you probably at least have the common sense not to run for high public office and give the world a chance to find out.

What you are missing here is that all this IS a response to something said last week (if you call last Sunday “last week”)—

It was Trump’s “No, I have not” that led to people who knew that he had, in fact, done “those things,” deciding that they couldn’t let Trump’s claim go unchallenged.

The “media” did not force Trump to make that claim. It was his own choice.

The issue is not the distant past of “25-30 year old stories.” *The issue is what Trump said four days ago. *
http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/questioning-by-anderson-cooper-credited-with-clearing-way-for-new-trump-reports/308046

I think Clinton needs to do it. She’s better at debating and I’ve read several articles suggesting that Trump’s polling with women is in a tailspin – that’s an advantage that Clinton can exploit just by being in his presence.

The question is: Will Trump go there and how ugly will he get? Michelle Obama is about the one target he hasn’t sprayed vitriol at yet, but that’s almost certain to change, especially considering Breitbart is running the campaign and how hated FLOTUS is among the alt-right.

Have they got in a body language expert on that yet?

If this has been posted already in another thread, mea culpa.

A short but plausible (to me, who is not a shrink) article about what makes Trump tick. Written by David Brooks, no less.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/donald-trump’s-sad-lonely-life/ar-BBxgUbe?li=BBnb7Kz

Is that the same Miss Universe whom he called a fat pig?

“When someone shows you who they are believe them; the first time.”
― Maya Angelou

Of course it is. Even with Trump’s promise of giant tax cuts for the wealthy he would be a disaster for the elite power structure. Do you expect them to just twiddle their thumbs? Trump is a pathogen and the country’s immune system is rejecting him.

The best part is that Dobbs’ tweet was complaining that this is the dirtiest campaign in American history. Self awareness is not his strong suit, evidently.

Of course Fox won’t fire him.

Why would they? After all, we all know that there’s a conservative definition of cyber-bullying that hasn’t received fair and equal treatment in the liberal media and people need to be exposed to all viewpoints.

HA. That’s so me, right? I would blame posting from my phone, but no, not the case. I kill me.

Yeah, insert the word “HIM” into that sentence wherever it seems to be best fit, because obviously I’m just whacking at random keys here, and can’t be trusted to put it in the right spot.

Falwell Jr now claims Donald has email evidence that shows they’re all lying.

So basically in other words, the Trump dystopian army is going full-throttle after the accuses. Mother fucking hell – between this, Trump, and Dobbs, do people not realize that this is what happens in places like remote parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan?! “Prove you got raped, bitch! Or we’ll make your life hell!”

I want to believe that this will sink Trump but he’s like a bad, bad case of MRSA. He just lingers around. I worry that people are going to think of sexual assault from a political or authority figure as a perverse new normal.

Why does he just not throw a brick through her window himself, personally? He has just enabled others to do it. Gutless little worm.

Yes, of course they realize this.

Because THIS is their vision of a “Great” America. No shit. They want the power back. They are sad little men, who feel that they have been left behind, and would love to be members of the New American Taliban.

Yes, you cannot. Not to hijack the thread with numbers, but I saw some stuff that was a bit troubling. I was looking at electoral-vote.com, and the percentages were looking overall lower than one would expect. This is an unusual election cycle.

I d/led the data and compared the discrepancies (unreported preferences, AFAICT) with the polled margins and came up with 311 EVs below the fair certainty margin. For example, Ms. Clinton leads in Oregon by 13 percentage points, but the poll is 27% blank, leaving a total raw uncertainty of 14 percentage points. Mr. Trump leads in Texas by 6, but the unreported fraction is 12%, leaving an uncertainty of 6 points.

When I added up everything below the traditional 3-pt MoE most polls claim (above -3 uncertainty), I was left with only 175 solid EVs to Ms. Clinton. She obviously cannot win with that, but he is three times further short of the tape, at 52.

Of course, that is just one set of numbers, without any sensible adjustments. Of course, this is not a sensible election.

That story was posted almost two hours ago, and Falwell made a reference to Trump making a statement in “a few minutes”. I’m sorry to say that I missed this crushing counterattack. Anyone else catch it?

Any chance Twitter will give him the boot? They came out strongly against cyberbullying

For me to feel safe, he’d have to be doing horrible in the North, where I have more uncertainty over the turnout from angry white voters. In my 270 I gave Trump Florida and Ohio and all the wavering states except Nevada, and trump still has to win one of PA, MI, and WI, and that is possible if the “likely voter” metrics are wrong for those states. ETA: I also didn’t give him Colorado (will voters really vote for him when they have no idea what he’d do with legal weed?) and NH (while there are probably plenty of angry voters there, I don’t think they are angrier than usual.)