Wallace cheated Trump by letting the general topics out knowing the orange one wouldn’t bother looking into them. Sad!
Well, and the Clinton campaign could reasonably assume the debate itself would be a nice little win. If they have a tape of Trump using a horrible ethnic slur, why waste it now? Wait until halfway between now and the election and let it out.
I assume you mean a cancelled check from the Trump Foundation. 
The latest Ohio poll, from before the final debate, shows them tied in the Buckeye State: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-ohio-poll-tie/index.html
I think Hillary clinched it last night. I don’t think it’ll be a Reagan-Mondale landslide but she probably wins with 350+ EV.
If Trump drags this election on and people get hurt it will be the kind of ugly spectacle that people remember for a generation. Hopefully more sensible heads prevail.
Like Von Clausewitz’s attacks: you don’t waste your artillery. You fire and let them scatter in panic, and then, just as they’re beginning to regroup, fire away again.
Clinton doesn’t control shit, people just go and look. That Farenthold guy just sat down to the phone and did the fucking work, all there was to it.
They were waiting until after the debate to see if there was any room left after Trump dumped all those turds into his own punchbowl.
I just saw Steve Schmidt (McCain’s campaign manager) last night predicting 400+ for Hillary in the Electoral College, and that the Senate will flip, and there’s a solid shot at the House flipping too.
I started paying more attention to him a few months back, mostly because of Rachel Maddow’s respectful attention to him, and I was impressed at his perception. Also at seeing what appears to be genuine unhappiness at watching his preferred ideology at the service of a goon.
He wasn’t predicting disaster so much early on, it was more like “Keeps going like this, it ain’t gonna work!”. And Trump did, and it didn’t.
Back in the 2008 race, he was one of the Republicans who realized that the party had shot itself in the foot by putting the Wasilla Warblegarbler on the ticket.
In other news, Baby Jesus statue faces second beheading in downtown Sudbury, as reported by the Toronto Star. Such a refreshing change of pace.
Only after recommending her as the best choice for VEEP to McCain. He came to regret that.
Last two polls (Suffolk, Quinn) show Ohio tied although the two before that had Trump leading by +4 & +1. The polling analysts say Ohio is a bit older and whiter than the average swing state and so favors Trump.
As much as I’d like Clinton to win every state in the union, I’d half like her to win without Ohio just to help kill its mythical status. Which seems entirely likely to happen as states like Virginia and North Carolina become competitive for Democrats.
Steve Schmidt and his fellow-Republican Nicolle Wallace (who also appears regularly on MSNBC) are two of the best arguments the GOP has for the concept “Republicans can be smart and sane.”
Woody Harrelson played a very smart and sane Schmidt in the movie Game Change. Worth a look.
Ed Harris’s portrayal of McCain in “Game Change” was also quite good I thought.
Virginia isn’t really even competitive anymore, it’s a Democratic state.
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I don’t think it’ll be a Reagan-Mondale landslide but she probably wins with 350+ EV.
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I don’t think true landslides are possible anymore. Reagan won every state except Minnesota and he also lost DC. It’s very hard to imagine something like that happening again.
Reagan won the popular vote 58.8-40.6. Even if every undecided and third party voter were to switch to Clinton, giving her a similar popular vote landslide - let’s say the same margin - that’s a swing in her favour of an additional 11 points, give or take. If the estimated margins on 538 are to be believed, even with that massive a swing, she would still probably lose Idaho, Alabama, Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming and West Virginia, and Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee would be close calls. It would be the worst ass-kicking since 1988 but it’s not a slaughter on par with 1964, 1972, or 1984, and would be no more a massacre than Eisenhower’s elections.
Eisenhower’s 1952 election is instructive; he won the EV easily, 442-89. He won the popular vote by 11%, though. What popular vote spread would Clinton need to win 442 electoral votes? Seventeen, eighteen points, right?
If you look up the 1984 state by state election results you note Reagan’s vote share is generally kind of consistent from state to state. In a few red states it ranges up to 70 but in most states it’s between 53-65, basically around his national average. (Minnesota was a VERY close call. Poor Walter.) Mississippi went 61-37 for Reagan, not much different from the average. New Jersey, hardly a redneck state, went 60-39. North Carolina was 61-38; Vermont was 58-41. The numbers just don’t look as radically polarized as they do now.
Ezra Klein on how much Clinton had to do with Trump’s meltdown:
That is an excellent read. And it pretty much echoes what I’ve been thinking. Clinton is very good at getting under Donald’s skin.