I’d rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints.
Or better yet:
“I have a dream that our … children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the (orange) color of their skin (or hair) but by the [del]content[/del] absence of their character.”
Woulda been yuuge had she done that.
Nobody goes to hell anymore. My old man showed up there and it was closed.
I think it’s still winnable for Clinton - as I’ve said before, Obama won it twice before - but it’s maybe tilting to Trump right now. Clinton will need massive turnout in the cities to offset Trump’s strength downstate and out in the sticks.
Right you are - thanks.
Let’s take those claims in reverse order.
Polling aggregators current numbers:
538 PollsOnly - C+3.1
HuffPo Pollster - C+6.1
PEC meta-margin C+2.8 (states based only)
and the rolling average RCP C+2.6 in the four-way.
Average of the approaches is C+3.65.
Even RCP, with its heavier counting of the trackers than other methods, is more than 2.
So point the first, polling going into election day is going to “2 or so” only for a very generous interpretation of “or so” or if you decide that 538 and HuffPo, both historically quite good, don’t count. (And asahi’s predicted tie in the polling by mid-week? Well, someone had to make your predictions look good addie!)
Note that all except RCP were within 2.4% in 2012 and much closer than that in 2008. The track record of the true aggregators is such that 2.5% or more would be considered a very large polling error. RCP’s being off by 3.2 in '12 was a major outlier, both in that cycle and historically.
So point the second, it would need to be a major polling error, and of course one Trumpward.
Turnout being dramatically different than expected could do it, but it would have to include major increase in White non-college educated turnout coupled with both significantly decreased Black turnout, no increase in Hispanic turnout, and White college educated voters (especially women) staying home much more than normal.
My god, you’re right. I miss elections that were about policy positions. This one is whether or not she’s a criminal, and whether or not he’s entirely unfit to run a sewing bee, much less the most powerful nation on earth.
War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Ignorance is strength.
Back to the Comey thing- is the idea that the FBI would really really enjoy running a police state under a Trump administration? Is that what’s going on here? Tapping everyone’s phones and recording everyone’s internet activity without warrants isn’t enough?
The FBI has 35,000 employees. Of those, 99% have no particular influence on anything. They’re just cops and receptionists and data managers who work in places like Carson City and Providence.
All it takes for this nonsense is, well, James Comey, or him and one other high level employee. And it could come from nothing more than animosity.
Well, Wang said he’d eat a bug if Trump got over 240 EVS. Hope he doesn’t have to.
Be a shame if all that practice goes to waste.
A policeman’s job is only easy in a police state. - Mike Vargas A Touch of Evil
Positive (assuming you’re pro-D) battleground polls from PPP today:
NH: Clinton 48-43
NV: Clinton 48-45
WI: Clinton 48-41
PA: Clinton 48-44
NC: Clinton 49-47
PPP is a Democratic outfit but well regarded on the accuracy front (B+ from 538, 0.2 +R lean)
I’d much rather see him make good on his other promise to eat a bug if HRC wins Texas.
Assuming that Clinton wins, is it feasible that the GOP, as some are now promising, will be able to block any supreme court nomination of hers (starting with the one that they blocked from Obama, obviously) for four years?
I don’t know about easier. But I’m gonna bet it’s a lot more fun. For particularly nasty definitions of “fun”.
If the Democrats win the Senate (51+ or 50 w/ Kaine as VP) then no because whoever is leading the Senate then would likely threaten to change the filibuster rules.
If Republicans keep the Senate, they could easily block any nominees by refusing to bring up the vote although I can’t imagine that being a tenable position for the next four years.
You know, people say that, but historically speaking, I’m not sure it’s that true. Do police in police states work shorter hours? Are they better paid? Are they more satisfied with their jobs? I need numbers.
I didn’t think it was a tenable position for the past year when they’ve been doing it, but the did it and have suffered no discernible repercussions for it, and with the possibility of a Trump presidency still there, might still pull off stealing a supreme court justice. On that note, while I think the GOP blocking Clinton nominees would be grotesque, I don’t think it’s a bit hypocritical for Democrats to block the first Trump nominee unless it’s Garland.
Ooh, I didn’t know about that one; does sound good.
I guess this comes down to PEC being much more steady than 538 with numbers/predictions?
So, after the election, will anyone gather together all the polls/poll aggregates/psychics/etc. who predicted the states correctly (or close to) not only on Nov. 7, but on Nov. 1, Oct. 8, or even Sept. 8? You know, so we know who we’re supposed to pay more attention to a week or a month out?
OK, but what kind of bug? If it’s just one of those little gnats and it flies in oyur mouth and you swallow it you’re like “ew” but it happens. If Trump gets over 240 EVs, I want Mr. It’s All Over, Don’t Mind All The Polls Saying It’s Not, Everyone Else Is a Hobbyist to eat a big bug, something you gotta chew.