Since there’s not much chatter here, and I’m just thinkin’ and drinkin’, I thought I’d post this:
I’m just sitting around thinking about the plight of Iowa (who’s tenuous grasp on an undefeated season was lost by the loss of their quarterback) and the greatness of 'Bama; when I came up with this thought:
Many (I daresay most) teams have 1 star player, the loss of whom would turn an undefeated seanon into a 10-2 season; or a 10-2 season into a 7-5 season, etc… Alabama does not have that problem. (To be fair, Oregon apparently doesn’t either.)
Let’s take a hypothetical situation, where you pick any team you think could be 'Bama, and you get to remove one of their players, (Obviously, I hope nobody gets injured. Let’s just say it’s a suspension, [or just say that this is a ridiculous hypothetical ]) and I get to remove one of your players. Can anybody come up with that team that they think could beat 'Bama under these conditions?
I think what you are saying is that I get to eliminate a Bama player and you get to eliminate a player from the team of my choice, right? Ok, I’ll play your game. I’ll take Cincinnati to beat Bama. And I am going to suspend McElroy because (1) he’s not that good and (2) he’s clearly the best option for Bama or Saban would have thrown someone else in.
After you get done with that one, I’ll take USC. Same set of rules - I suspend McElroy.
Not really. I still want to see Cincy play a defense that will come after Pike/Collaros like a pit bull after a pork chop (although I hope it ain’t Bama. They need to play in a different game! )
Perhaps I was not clear on my hypothetical. 'Bama would have been able to send their backup PK’er out for those field goals. (So they would have scored 6 or 9 points.) OK, you still got me.
The only way an undefeated Cincy (which means beating Pitt) gets to the BCS bowl is if one or more of these unlikely scenarios happen:
Bama loses to Miss St and/or Auburn and beats Florida in the SEC Championship game.
Florida loses to USC and/or FSU and/or FIU and beats Bama in the SEC Championship game.
Texas loses one of their remaining games against Baylor, A/M and the token North Division patsy in the Big XII Championship game.
I don’t think TCU or Boise will overtake an undefeated Cincy team.
Is there a rule that prohibits more than two teams from a conference going to a BCS bowl? None of the bowl projections I’ve seen has LSU going to a BCS bowl. And they are ranked #8 in the BCS. Both OhSU and Iowa behind LSU in the BCS ranking and at least one projection has both going to a BCS bowl. And one of those teams will lose Saturday afternoon.
On reading the recap of the UC game, it appears that they did pretty well with their backup QB. So kudos there.
While I believe that my original point still stands (that a big part of Alabama’s strength, and chances of winning the NCG) is that their hopes do not rest on one single person, I’m realizing now that my hypothetical is pretty much impossible to defend. For example, what if someone were to pick Terrence Cody as the 'Bama player that they suspend? How in the hell do you quantify that? (yeah, I guess you could say that that’s +6 for Tennessee in the UT/Bama game. But then you’ve got to figure out whether or not they would have gotten in field goal range without Crompton.)
When I formulated this plot, I was thinking of the obvious: Florida without Tebow. Texas without McCoy. Etc…
* The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.
* The champion of a BCS conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid.
* The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if:
o It is ranked in the top twelve, or
o Ranked in the top sixteen and higher than at least one BCS Conference champion.
* No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year.
* A special case is made for independent Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.
** * No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference’s BCS bowl game.**
* The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference (and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths), if there’s room.
* If the third-ranked team did not require a berth using the previous provision, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference (and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths), if there’s room.
I didn’t realize that there was a way for 3 teams from the same conference to go to BCS games. LSU can make it: You just have to hope that every non-SEC team in the top 10 loses about 2 games each.
I think if you reverse the hypothetical it sounds better. Replace one player with their average conference counterpart. In Alabama’s case, replace McElroy with an average quarterback and the team’s dynamite. They’ve got receivers, rushing, blocking, defense, and special teams. Then Saban can mix up the play calling without wasting downs on incomplete passes and completions under 2 yards. Alabama has a weak spot, and it’s the guy who touches the ball every down. The wildcat is such an improvement.
In Tennessee’s case, they pulled this move when Crompton came alive during the Georgia game. With the new and improved Crompton, they probably get the win over UCLA and maybe Auburn.
]) and I get to remove one of your players. Can anybody come up with that team that they think could beat 'Bama under these conditions?
And one of those teams will lose Saturday afternoon.