Looks like it could be rather strange this year. If Clemson beats Miami in the ACC championship (they will), and Georgia beats Alabama (they might), then you’ve got a bunch of 9-1 teams OUT and 9-1 teams IN, all because of when in the season they had their loss. (Personally i’d love a Clemson/Georgia National Championship).
But would Alabama fall completely out of the top 4 if it was a close loss to Georgia? A one loss Alabama falling below a one loss Oklahoma? Of course it gets really strange if Auburn manages to win the Iron Bowl.
If I had to stake my life on it I’d probably say some combination of Alabama-Miami-Oklahoma-Ohio State, but I certainly don’t feel good about it (Alabama has a ton of injuries and might well lose to Auburn, and OSU needs help).
I feel like the SEC and ACC championships should basically be play-in games, with the winner getting in and the loser being left out. Not a fan of situations like 2012. But if Alabama were to lose a tight one to Auburn, and then Georgia beats Auburn convincingly, I think Alabama would still stay in the top 4.
Oklahoma seems like the surest thing right now.
SEC champ is in. Let’s say Bama.
ACC champ is in. Let’s say Miami.
And the 4th team is totally up in the air. If Wisconsin wins out, I think they’re in. For the sake of ease, I’ll just go with that.
I said it in the other thread, but I can’t see how you could reasonably argue Ohio State unless things go way, way off the rails for everyone currently ahead of them.
They’re a two-loss team right now, and even if they win out, go to the Big Ten Championship game, and beat Wisconsin, I’d have a hard time seeing them get an invitation.
For that matter, though I’m a Wisconsin fan (and alumnus), and I’m thrilled to see them at 10-0, even if they win out, I can’t say I’d be surprised if they don’t get into the playoff. They’ve been perceived as not having played anyone challenging (and not unjustly so), and the Big Ten is (again, not without cause) seen as being not at the same level as the SEC and ACC.
If that scenario plays out, I give them a 95% chance of getting in. The only other options would be:
(1) 2 teams from the SEC
(2) ND
(3) The Pac 10 champ
(1) and (2) are unprecedented and for (3), the committee has OSU ahead of USC. The only reason I give it a 5% chance is because they have ND a spot ahead of OSU right now. In this scenario, the quality wins against Michigan and Wisconsin would most likely be enough to move them up.