College Football Polls: Tracking and Predicting Their Changes

Last year in the College football fans: how’s your team look?thread my major contributions were summaries like this post for Week 4 and subsequent ones:
130-wk5
144-wk6
168-wk7
201-wk8
237-wk9
259-wk10
277-wk11
310-wk12
360-wk13

This year, rather than mess with the action in College football fans: how’s your team look? – 2011 Version, I thought a separate thread with the same idea as those posts would give others a chance to provide other data for consideration.

Some links that may be useful:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/polls/ap/

The polls themselves ought to be updated during the day today, so the predictions of this week’s changes may be too much to expect, but at least these latest Top 25 can be expected to shift some:



Bowl Subdivision 
     
Oklahoma (1)            0-0 1-0 
Alabama (2)             0-0 1-0    
Oregon (3)              0-0 0-1  V
LSU (4)                 0-0 1-0 
Boise State (5)         0-0 1-0    
Florida State (6)       0-0 1-0 
Stanford (7)            0-0 1-0  
Texas A&M (8)           0-0 1-0   
Oklahoma State (9)      0-0 1-0  
Nebraska (10)           0-0 1-0   
Wisconsin (11)          0-0 1-0  
South Carolina (12)     0-0 1-0  
Virginia Tech (13)      0-0 1-0 
TCU (14)                0-0 0-1  V 
Arkansas (15)           0-0 1-0   
Notre Dame (16)         0-0 0-1  V   
Michigan State (17)     0-0 1-0 
Ohio State (18)         0-0 1-0 
Georgia (19)            0-0 0-1  V
Mississippi State (20)  0-0 1-0   
Missouri (21)           0-0 1-0 
Florida (22)            0-0 1-0   
Auburn (23)             0-0 1-0   
West Virginia (24)      0-0 1-0 
USC (25)                0-0 1-0  


And just in case anybody’s curious, here’s how Week 1’s action breaks out by conference (Wins-Losses-Games yet to be played)



Bowl Subdivision  

 Big 12                    10-0-0  
 Big Ten                   10-2-0 
 Southeastern              10-2-0 
 Big East                   8-0-0 
 Atlantic Coast             8-4-0 
 Pacific-12                 8-4-0 
 Mid-American               8-5-0
 Mountain West              5-3-0 
 Conference USA             5-6-1 
 Independents (FBS)         2-2-0  
 Western Athletic           1-6-1
 Sun Belt                   1-8-0 
                           76-42-2


Those other 34 wins came from non-FBS opponents.

This is kind of a meaningless stat unless you clearly identify OOC games. If every game was in-conference, all conferences would be X-X (where X is some positive number) every week. For example, USF’s OOC win should count more than the even split of Maryland-Miami (which makes the ACC 1-1 that game). Ditto LSU’s win over Oregon.

It’s probably too early in the season for these numbers to mean much, but here they are anyway:



=====================================================

++ WEEK 2 ++

Bowl Subdivision  -- Teams Top 25 + No-Loss

Oklahoma (1)           0-0 1-0 Big 12   
LSU (2)                0-0 2-0 Southeastern West 
Alabama (3)            0-0 2-0 Southeastern West 
Boise State (4)        0-0 1-0 Mountain West  
Florida State (5)      0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Atlantic   
Stanford (6)           0-0 2-0 Pacific-12 North   
Texas A&M (7)          0-0 1-0 Big 12   
Wisconsin (8)          0-0 2-0 Big Ten Leaders   
Oklahoma State (9)     0-0 2-0 Big 12   
Nebraska (10)          0-0 2-0 Big Ten Legends   
Virginia Tech (11)     0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal  
South Carolina (12)    1-0 2-0 Southeastern East
Oregon (13)            0-0 1-1 Pacific-12 North   
Arkansas (14)          0-0 2-0 Southeastern West  
Ohio State (15)        0-0 2-0 Big Ten Leaders   
Mississippi State (16) 0-1 1-1 Southeastern West 
Michigan State (17)    0-0 2-0 Big Ten Legends   
Florida (18)           0-0 2-0 Southeastern East 
West Virginia (19)     0-0 2-0 Big East   
Baylor (20)            0-0 1-0 Big 12   
Missouri (21)          0-0 1-1 Big 12  
South Florida (22)     0-0 2-0 Big East    
Penn State (23)        0-0 1-1 Big Ten Leaders   
Texas (24)             0-0 2-0 Big 12   
TCU (25)               1-0 1-1 Mountain West   

Temple                 1-0 2-0 Mid-American East 
Colorado State         1-0 2-0 Mountain West   
USC                    1-0 2-0 Pacific-12 South    
Auburn                 1-0 2-0 Southeastern West 
FIU                    1-0 2-0 Sun Belt 

Maryland               1-0 1-0 Atlantic Coast Atlantic   

Clemson                0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Atlantic 
Georgia Tech           0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal  
Virginia               0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal   
North Carolina         0-0 2-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal 
Pittsburgh             0-0 2-0 Big East     
Syracuse               0-0 2-0 Big East  
Illinois               0-0 2-0 Big Ten Leaders 
Michigan               0-0 2-0 Big Ten Legends   
Northwestern           0-0 2-0 Big Ten Legends 
Kansas                 0-0 2-0 Big 12   
Iowa State             0-0 2-0 Big 12  
UCF                    0-0 2-0 Conference USA East 
Houston                0-0 2-0 Conference USA West 
Bowling Green          0-0 2-0 Mid-American East 
Ohio                   0-0 2-0 Mid-American East 
Eastern Michigan       0-0 2-0 Mid-American West 
Wyoming                0-0 2-0 Mountain West  
San Diego State        0-0 2-0 Mountain West  
Washington State       0-0 2-0 Pacific-12 North  
California             0-0 2-0 Pacific-12 North  
Washington             0-0 2-0 Pacific-12 North  
Arizona State          0-0 2-0 Pacific-12 South   
Tennessee              0-0 2-0 Southeastern East 
Vanderbilt             0-0 2-0 Southeastern East 
Kentucky               0-0 2-0 Southeastern East 
Navy                   0-0 2-0 Independents (FBS)  

Texas Tech             0-0 1-0 Big 12   
Kansas State           0-0 1-0 Big 12   

=====================================================


If Sagarin’s rankings are anything to go by, they’ve been updated for Week 2 at
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

Update



++ WEEK 3 ++
 
Bowl Subdivision -- Teams Top 25 + No-Loss

Oklahoma (1)           0-0 2-0 Big 12 
Alabama (2)            0-0 3-0 Southeastern West  
LSU (3)                1-0 3-0 Southeastern West  
Boise State (4)        0-0 2-0 Mountain West   
Florida State (5)      0-0 2-1 Atlantic Coast Atlantic  
Stanford (6)           1-0 3-0 Pacific-12 North  
Wisconsin (7)          0-0 3-0 Big Ten Leaders 
Oklahoma State (8)     0-0 3-0 Big 12  
Texas A&M (9)          0-0 2-0 Big 12  
South Carolina (10)    1-0 3-0 Southeastern East 
Nebraska (11)          0-0 3-0 Big Ten Legends
Oregon (12)            0-0 2-1 Pacific-12 North  
Virginia Tech (13)     0-0 3-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal 
Arkansas (14)          0-0 3-0 Southeastern West   
Michigan State (15)    0-0 2-1 Big Ten Legends 
Florida (16)           1-0 3-0 Southeastern East  
Ohio State (17)        0-0 2-1 Big Ten Leaders   
West Virginia (18)     0-0 3-0 Big East  
Baylor (19)            0-0 2-0 Big 12  
South Florida (20)     0-0 3-0 Big East  
Auburn (21)            1-0 2-1 Southeastern West  
Arizona State (22)     0-0 2-1 Pacific-12 South  
Texas (23)             0-0 3-0 Big 12 
TCU (23)               1-0 2-1 Mountain West  
Mississippi State (25) 0-2 1-2 Southeastern West  

North Carolina         1-0 3-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal 
USC                    1-0 3-0 Pacific-12 South 
Vanderbilt             1-0 3-0 Southeastern East  
FIU                    1-0 3-0 Sun Belt 

Clemson                0-0 3-0 Atlantic Coast Atlantic  
Georgia Tech           0-0 3-0 Atlantic Coast Coastal 
Illinois               0-0 3-0 Big Ten Leaders 
Michigan               0-0 3-0 Big Ten Legends  
Iowa State             0-0 3-0 Big 12  
Houston                0-0 3-0 Conference USA West  
Ohio                   0-0 3-0 Mid-American East  
San Diego State        0-0 3-0 Mountain West  
Wyoming                0-0 3-0 Mountain West  
California             0-0 3-0 Pacific-12 North  

Texas Tech             0-0 2-0 Big 12  
Kansas State           0-0 2-0 Big 12  


In anticipation of the first version of the BCS Rankings later tonight, here are the teams with no worse than two losses, along with the latest Top 25 from various sources, and (in parentheses) their last week AP rankings:



++ WEEK 7 ++
 
Bowl Subdivision  
                                                   Sagarin USA  AP Harris BCS
LSU (1)              4-0 7-0 Southeastern West          2    2   1    1 
Alabama (2)          4-0 7-0 Southeastern West          1    3   2    2 
Oklahoma (3)         3-0 6-0 Big 12                     3    1   3    3 
Wisconsin (4)        2-0 6-0 Big Ten Leaders            4    4   4    4   
Boise State (5)      1-0 6-0 Mountain West              5    7   5    5 
Oklahoma State (6)   3-0 6-0 Big 12                     6    6   6    6
Stanford (7)         4-0 6-0 Pacific-12 North           8    5   7    7
Clemson (8)          4-0 7-0 Atlantic Coast Atlantic    9    8   8    8
Oregon (9)           3-0 5-1 Pacific-12 North           7    8   9    9
Arkansas (10)        1-1 5-1 Southeastern West         10   10  10   10
Michigan (11)        2-1 6-1 Big Ten Legends           24   17  18   17
Georgia Tech (12)    3-1 6-1 Atlantic Coast Coastal    39   19  20   18
West Virginia (13)   1-0 5-1 Big East                  14   14  11   14
Nebraska (14)        1-1 5-1 Big Ten Legends           13   11  13   11
South Carolina (15)  4-1 6-1 Southeastern East         17   12  14   13
Illinois (16)        2-1 6-1 Big Ten Leaders           37   21  23   20
Kansas State (17)    3-0 6-0 Big 12                    12   16  12   12
Arizona State (18)   3-1 5-2 Pacific-12 South          19   25  24   23 
Virginia Tech (19)   2-1 6-1 Atlantic Coast Coastal    16   14  16   16
Baylor (20)          1-2 4-2 Big 12                    29 
Texas A&M (21)       2-1 4-2 Big 12                    11   18  17   19  
Texas (22)           1-2 4-2 Big 12                    18
Michigan State (23)  2-0 5-1 Big Ten Legends           22   13  15   15
Auburn (24)          3-1 5-2 Southeastern West         23   23  19   21
Houston (25)         2-0 6-0 Conference USA West       21   20  21   22

Louisiana-Lafayette  4-0 6-1 Sun Belt                  62

Penn State           3-0 6-1 Big Ten Leaders           15   22       24 

Southern Methodist   3-0 5-1 Conference USA West       25
Washington           3-0 5-1 Pacific-12 North          28   24  22   25

USC                  3-1 5-1 Pacific-12 South          30
 
Rutgers              2-0 5-1 Big East                  40 

Cincinnati           1-0 5-1 Big East                  45    
 
Southern Miss        1-1 5-1 Conference USA East       50 

Georgia              4-1 5-2 Southeastern East         20       24   

Temple               3-1 5-2 Mid-American East         36
  
North Carolina       1-2 5-2 Atlantic Coast Coastal    44 

Brigham Young        0-0 5-2 Independents (FBS)        57

Wake Forest          3-1 4-2 Atlantic Coast Atlantic   60 

TCU                  2-0 4-2 Mountain West             32
Arkansas State       2-0 4-2 Sun Belt                  70 

Wyoming              1-0 4-2 Mountain West             93

Virginia             1-1 4-2 Atlantic Coast Coastal    64 
Iowa                 1-1 4-2 Big Ten Legends           52
San Diego State      1-1 4-2 Mountain West             54 
FIU                  1-1 4-2 Sun Belt                  81  

Texas Tech           1-2 4-2 Big 12                    33

Notre Dame           0-0 4-2 Independents (FBS)        31 

Syracuse             0-1 4-2 Big East                  67
 
South Florida        0-2 4-2 Big East                  51