An examination of the developing bandwagon against me.
We start with [post=11922510 ]814[/post]. I state that killing the SK early hampers Scum. This comment was based on my experience in a game where the Deadites suffered two losses out of six by the dawn of Day 2, and were further crippled by the total inability of the two serial killers to actually kill anyone. Thus the number of mislynches required for the Deadites to win the game was too much, and we were hunted down and lynched.
This wasn’t the only time I’d seen it, but it crystallised the realisation that the SK is a net asset to the Scum in the early days.
In post [post=11931295]841[/post], Peeker expresses disagreement, claiming the chance of the SK hitting scum are too high. I replied with [post=11931460]845[/post], making a back-of-the-envelope calculation showing that the most likely single result is the one scum want. My contention was therefore that, in the absence of mitigating factors (which I chose to ignore for first approximations) the scum would be better off on average leaving the SK alive in the early game. This was a rebuttal to the contention that the SK was too likely to hit scum in the early game.
In post [post=11931661]848[/post], Peeker brings up that a scum is more valuable to the scum team than a townie is to the Town. While true, I dispute that it affects the topic under discussion, which is that over a long series of games the SK will advance the cause of the scum more often than that of the Town, and in a considerable number the SK will have no impact.
Post [post=11931697]849[/post] : Red Skeezix tries to suggest that I’ve used the wrong starting numbers for the size of the game, which is true, although I doubt that it invalidates my conclusion, and that the game involves strategy. He neglects the strategy considerations for the SK – which dictate that the SK needs to shrink Town in the early game. In other words, in the early game the aims of the scum and SK are the same – they both want to reduce the Town numbers significantly.
If you look at the votes against me, this is when they start to pile up. Red here pings me because he’s trying to fuzz what I’m saying.
Freudian Slit votes me in [post=]851[/post]. I’ve already discussed this; she’s she’s using a hypothetical construction as a confession. Poor vote. I don’t intend to vote her right now, absent a counterclaim. The argument that she should have claimed Yesterday appears to have some prima facie merit and maybe that should be looked at.
Mahaloth votes for me in post [post=11932114]855[/post] based on strategy differences. Bad vote.
Meeko votes me in post [post=11932141&postcount=856 ]856[/post], not exactly giving much reason and (again) ignoring that the statement of mine that he quotes is a hypothetical.
Finally Red Skeezix, in post [post=11933565]871[/post]. shows he’s missed the entire context of post 845. Either that or he’s chosen to suppress it in order to divert the lynch from Freudian Slit.
All in all I think that looking at my bandwagon, Red Skeezix stands out. He’s pushed it based on a misinterpretation of what I said. Now, while I could have expressed myself less ambiguously in at least one place, it’s not where Red has picked on. Red has ignored the full context of the discussion, has cast doubts on my analysis but then not actually considered the strategy of the SK, and has effectively diverted attention from an FS lynch for the second Day running.
Vote Red Skeezix
I have a secondary suspicion, which is Mahaloth, based on the weak reasoning for his vote. FS and Meeko are less so, because they based their vote on one of the statements that I could have, on reflection, phrased a little more clearly.
On preview : Currently Mahaloth and I are tied on four votes. I could switch for self-preservation, but I want my major suspicion recorded while I go and review Maha’s posts.
