Colorless Mafia

The Game Room
1201

More data gathering - surviving players’ votes, apart from the votes after Guiri claimed on Day 5 and the Day 4 stampede against Freudian, and leaving out peeker and Alka. Day end votes bolded when there was more than one:

Meeko - Day 1 amrussell (as Rin) (218); Day 2 Red Skeezix (627); Day 3 MHaye (856), Day 5 storyteller (1031), Day 6 Drain Bead (1174).

Drain Bead - Day 1 Freudian (298 395), pedescribe (395); Day 2 Freudian (545); Day 3 Freudian (707 891), no vote; Day 5 Tom Scud (1092); Day 6 Meeko (1178).

Red Skeezix - Day 1 Cookies (315 378), Freudian (378 429), Pedescribe (429); Day 2 Freudian (536 593), Diggit (593); Day 3 MHaye (849 911), Mahaloth (911); Day 5 Meeko (1036 1083), **Drain Bead **(1083); Day 6 **Drain Bead **(1164)

Cookies - Day 1 pedescribe (86 384 412); Day 2 Diggit (642); Day 3 Freudian (779 817), Mahaloth (921); Day 5 Meeko (1022 1096), **Tom Scud **(1096); Day 6 Meeko (1170)

storyteller - Day 1 Meeko (Rin) (290); Day 2 Meeko (540); Day 3 Tom Scud (751); Day 5 Tom Scud (1025); Day 6 no vote yet

Tom Scud - Day 1 pedescribe (282 334 393), Mahaloth (334 393), Day 2 Meeko (534 561), Freudian (561 633), Diggit (633); Day 3 ToeJam (716 723 787 859), Mahaloth (727 787 887), Freudian (859 873); Day 5 storyteller (1028 1039), MentalGuy (1097 1101), **Drain Bead **(1101); Day 6 Drain Bead (1182 1184), Meeko (1184)

Mental Guy - Day 1 pedescribe (318 377 396); Day 2 Freudian (584 653), Diggit (653); Day 3 Freudian (761 902), Mahaloth (902); Day 5 Tom Scud (1054); Day 6 Meeko (1168)

There you have it - do with it what you will.

1202

3&4a - In addition to the WiFOM, possibly scum wasn’t worried that peeker would target one of them; his expressed suspicions over time have fallen on me, story, skeezix, and MHaye (to the best of my recollection).

1203

Hm. Looking at that vote count post, I’m sure I missed a vote by Meeko on Cookies, probably on day 3; there could be other omissions. Oh well.

1204

If I had to venture a guess, that’s what I would come up with. peeker was gunning so hard for MHaye, the Scum probably assumed that peeker would kill him if left unblocked, which was essentially a best case scenario. Not sure what the Scum did with their blocker, though–they may have had him fire into the crowd, hoping to hit the Town blocker, or blocked and killed Guiri, so that just in case the kill got blocked, Guiri would have no new info to report.

1205

Sorry, I was hoping to have a more substantial post covering a bit more, but that is going to have to wait. For the time being, I will just address the above.

Well, the fact that there was no kill on the Night you blocked Drain definitely puts her on my radar. I think there is a decent likelihood that the scum went after the protected peeker that Night, but I do want to go back and look at Drain’s overall game to see if anything pops out that I didn’t notice before.

The scum may have been counting on peeker to go after MHaye last Night, but if they were, I think that was bad strategy on their part. As I said, I think peeker should have fired into the unconfirmed pool instead of the semiconfirmed pool, and I expected him to do that. I would assume the scum expected him to do that too. (Of course, I was wrong with my assumption about peeker, I could be just as wrong with my assumption about scum.) I just thought of this, but if the godfather is in the semiconfirmed group, then they might have thought he was safe, since they would have expected peeker to fire in the other group. The last possibility I can think of is that you blocked the scum blocker, which means it would be Skeezix. Skeezix has not been high on my suspicion list, but I think he also warrants taking a longer look at.

I hope I have the time to go back and do that reread, there is quite a bit here to think about.

1206

@Meeko - If you are town you have no reason to ignore my questions.

@Story, Cookies - Still waiting to hear from you before I give you my thoughts on the possible blocks. Sorry to keep banging on about this, but we are at a crucial stage of the game, and the clock is ticking. Another last minute lynch plays into scum hands.

1207

Honestly, I’m not sure what sort of thoughts you want here. I think there are obviously only two possibilities: (1) drainbead is the blocker and she blocked peeker but was herself blocked by Alka; or (2) the Scum chose not to block peeker for any number of reasons, not least of which so that they could make us think that #1 was a possibility.

If it’s #2, I think the Scum made a mistake. Even Mhaye’s death basically helps more than it hurts, given the game-state; it did not reduce our mislynch allotment and it narrowed the pool by one player. peek could have maximized his return by fishing in the pool of players who had not been investigated, but that’s water under the bridge.

If it’s #1, then whoever Alka Seltzer blocked is Scum. But #2 is at least as likely as #1. I do not think either option is significantly more likely than the other, but I would definitely be opposed to lynching Alka’s block-ee reflexively.

As to the rest of the game, I have little interest in picking up on Tom Scud again. The positive read on him from the Cop means if he’s Scum he could only be the Godfather, and even if he is we can deal with him later. Further, his responses to me did not have a Scummy feel to them, so he’s moved down the list a bit for me.

I know myself to be Town, and trust the claims of peeker and Alka Seltzer. I am disinclined to vote for anyone investigated as Town by Guiri. The rest of the pack is muddy right now, and I need to do some research to see if anyone separates from the group in my mind.

1208

Hang on, I’m getting confused. Has Alka revealed who he blocked last Night? At first I thought it was drainbead, but he blocked her Night Three, yes? And then there’s this post by redskeezix:

Which seems to imply that skeezix, in fact, was the player targeted by Alka last Night. But if Alka hasn’t said that, whence this post by skeez?

Confused.

1209

All right, somehow I’m an idiot and have gotten terribly mixed up. I have re-read everything and now have all my facts straight.

Sorry for that very confusing double-post sequence.

1210

I laid out all my actions in my claim post here:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11983820&postcount=1172

1211

@Peeker - Btw, I’m in favour of you taking a shot tonight, regardless of the results of today’s lynch.

1212

???

That’s insane. if we mislynch toDay (5-3 following a mislynch) and peeker misfires (4-3) while the Scum kill goes through (3-3), the game will end and we will lose it. Why would you be in favor of this?

1213

If we do mis-lynch toDay, I think town has very little chance of winning by making 3 consecutive successful lynches. Scum would be in prime position to either dominate the vote or set up a decisive bus. In my opinion, Peeker would have a better chance of hitting scum than a heavily scum-influenced vote.

If we lynch successfully, it’s less clear-cut, but with two flips I think he’d have enough data to pick a reasonable target.

Really, this is a side issue to the main business of the day, and not something we should get bogged down with.

1214

If we do mislynch today, the only sensible strategy for tomorrow is for everyone to vote with whichever of you and Peeker is still alive, since any division of Town votes will open the door to a last-minute scum switch.

1215

I was going to make myself useful and post an updated vote count for the first time in about a month, but nobody’s voted since Ed’s last. So here.

1216

Um, what?

1217

@Story - Please can I have an ungarbled version #1207 and #1208.

1218

OK, listen. I’ll answer your question (below the dashed line). But at this point you seem to have taken it upon yourself to dictate the exact content and development of the conversation, and I think it’s hurting us. I guess this ask-questions-and-never-really-explain-why thing has worked for you in the past, but it’s stifling us here because everyone is just sort of following you blithely along, answering your cryptic questions and where, exactly, is it getting us? Are you going somewhere with any of this? Is there a chance we may arrive there sometime before the deadline?

The simple answer to your question is that either: (1) you blocked the blocker; or (2) the Scum chose not to block peeker. If it was #1, obviously skeezix is Scum. If it was #2, I think the Scum made a mistake. I haven’t the faintest clue which it was, consider them approximately equally likely given the information I have, and frankly am getting frustrated that you are spending so much time asking the same unanswerable question of every player.

1219

If we mislynch toDay, then we are at lynch-or-lose toMorrow (note: this will be true even if peeker kills Scum toNight.). That would mean that at Dawn toMorrow, it would be either 4-3 (if peeker stays his hand) or 4-2 (if peeker kills Scum).

In the former case, the only way the Town will have the votes to overcome a Scum bloc vote is to vote together. The Scum will kill either Alka or peeker toNight. So toMorrow, if we mislynch toDay, we should ALL with-hold our votes until a candidate has been chosen by acclamation (perhaps we can revive the old “vote in orange” thing). Once the candidate is chosen, peeker/Alka casts the first vote and then we ALL follow suit.

If we don’t do this, we run the risk of a situation where there are 3 votes on Scum, 2 on Town, and 2 on another Town, and at the last minute, Scum voters jump from their target to one of the Town and swing the vote. Wouldn’t be all that hard to achieve.

1220

(On preview, what story said, but I’ll go ahead and put my long version that I’ve already typed out in a spoiler tag)

Longer version:

We choose wrongly today, a townie hangs. Boo. Scum then kills one of Alka or peeker. The game now stands at 4 Town, 3 scum. And the only person who everyone knows is Town is either Alka or peeker.

At that point (and bear in mind I’m advocating this solely for a LyLo situation), I think the best thing to do would be for all the players to make a vote early, with an explanation of why they’re voting for them; then the confirmed Townie (henceforth, CT) needs to put down a vote; then everyone piles on with CT.

Otherwise, imagine a situation where a Townie decides, “no, CT is wrong,” and sticks to his/her guns; now if either CT or the hold-out is actually voting for a Town player, the scum can shift en masse at the last minute to give that player a 4-vote majority, forcing a mislynch and winning the game for scum.

(Now, the obvious question is, “what if I’m a Townie and CT decides to vote for me?” - in that case, Town is screwed because scum would win with just their 3 votes and CT’s vote. I’m not advocating that anyone self-vote as part of this process - I’d expect a player with the CT’s vote on him/her to continue advocating for whoever they think is the best lynch.)

Does that make more sense?