One last point: I know I specified who I was most suspicious of at the head of the day. Since my track record has been poor for this game (RIP Diggit & Mahaloth), I would hope that my fellow townsfolk are considering other cases as well, I know that I am rereading in the case that I am just way off.
Interesting.
First off, peeker, wtf were you thinking? You could at least have taken a shot at storyteller (who I don’t think is scum but you were arguing that way) or skeezix and we’d have a pool of 4 town-or-alpha and 5 possible scum even if you hit Town; now we’re looking at a 2+ in 7 shot instead of a 2+ in 5.
On Alka’s block math:
Taking it from the top, the percentage play for scum on the night after Freudian claimed would have been to go kill someone random and block peeker, then have Freudian claim self-protection and argue that the scum were trying to set her up; Freudian stuck with that cover story even though it made no sense in the event. If the scum were going to try and kill peeker, I would have expected them to have come up with a cover story for Freudian that explained a no-kill, if only “I protected peeker”.
(on preview, I can sorta see skeez’s “Nanook must be Doc” argument, but it doesn’t seem solid - there are after all other reasons the Doc might be reluctant to claim, and it seems weird that scum would count on this).
The percentage play last night would have been to block peeker and kill Guiri, since dead men tell no tales. How were they to know peeker was going to play for their side?
They might have been counting on Peeker to go after MHaye, who he’d been voting for (off and on) for days; a roleblock that stopped their night kill of Guiri would be bad, but an extra investigation would have been disastrous, and they could have decided to go belt-and-suspenders, especially if they’d lost a night kill to a roleblock already.
So in either case, it seems that either Alka hit the target with his roleblock, or the scum played against the percentages.
Meeko’s “either Drain is scum or Drain is scum” argument is pretty far off the rails. I’m not sure how much credit I want to extend to the “That’s just Meeko” account, but there isn’t much more.
Complicating factors further, we have skeezix, one of Alka’s suspects, going after Drain, another of Alka’s suspects.
I’m still really not liking Drain’s votes on me; I don’t have a big problem with the fact that people were voting for me - I did make a very bad vote on Day 2, and it had a scummy outcome - but I’ll stand by my initial criticism of her analysis of my Day 3 vote; it was not a “safe” vote in the sense that it didn’t put Freudian in danger.
She compounds this with her explanation, where she mentions that she is voting for me, in part, because I saved Freudian on multiple occasions, whereas in her initial vote post she mentions that she regarded my unvoting Freudian following her claim as a null tell; so which is it? I didn’t do anything to save Freudian on Day 1, unless you count voting for pede after peeker’s counterclaim; so that only leaves my Day 3 unvote. Which is apparently both a null tell and a reason to vote for me.
I now need to go do the job they’re paying me for; I’ll try to go back and reread the Drain/Freudian interaction and see if it makes sense as a bussing; for the moment, I will
vote Drain Bead
If I’m Scum, why would I have attempted to bus Freudian on Day One, though? That’s a dangerous move for Scum to make at that point. According to the roles as shown in Post 67, the Scum knew one another’s identities on Day One, but not who had what role. Even if you assume I’m the Godfather or Roleblocker, it’s still odds not worth messing with to potentially bus the other one of that pair. I was going after Freudian pretty hard from early on in this game. If I were reluctant to go after her on Day One and only did it later, then you might have a case for a bussing. But as is, the only reason I unvoted Freudian on Day One was because we found the SK.
Good points. And on the theory that the block on you on Night 3, rather than USC’s protection of peeker, stopped the kill, you’d have been very likely to be a Goon (on account of, why risk the Alpha?); in which case, there’d be a 2 in 3 chance you were bussing a power role.
I just went back and looked at Freudian’s posts on Day 1, and if she signalled that she was a goon, I certainly didn’t see it (not in the evil-crumbing discussion, and not anywhere else I could see either); I’d assume anything like that would have been obvious enough in retrospect, at least.
unvote Drain Bead
vote Meeko for all-around weird votes, and particularly the eagerness with which he leaped on the DB wagon.
Further on Meeko, I believe he subbed in for Rin; and as I was looking to see if Freudian had dropped any hints about her role, I came across a kind of weird little Socratic dialogue between Freudian and Rin.
It started with Rin’s vote on amrussell (218), where she accused him of dropping little hints for the scum into his post; Freudian followed up, well, read it yourself:
Knowing that Freudian is scum, is this Rin explaining all about how the scum can drop hints for each other in the game thread in case something needs to be decided on Day 1? A weird dynamic there, anyway.
Was it actually established that the scum did not know each other’s roles?
@Drain - Why are you ignoring my request to give me your thoughts on the night 3 and 5 scenarios?
@Cookies - Do you have a town read on Red, and if so why?
I looked back at the Day 1 discussion, and while people highlighted the scum PM:
I don’t believe anyone specifically asked Ed.
Did the scum receive the roles of their fellow scum on Day 1, or only the names?
Weird Votes? I can has OMGUS?
And furthermore, what does a Weird Meeko Vote look like? Isn’t that a double negative?
““Weird Votes”” ?!
Really?
Apparently everyone else sees something wrong with my logic.
**
We know that Drain was blocked on a night with no night kill. He has not claimed a power role.
In fact, he is claiming Vanilla. :dubious:
I do not see where I am wrong here. Apparently, asking for clarification doesn’t help.**
Peeker:
1.Are you lead to believe that there were nights where you were blocked from your Vig kill?
2.Are you still claiming Vig?
:smack:
Vote Count with about 4 days, 0 hours, and 53 minutes to go
(peak vote in parentheses)
with 9 players alive, it will take 7 votes to start a countdown timer
3 Votes
*Drain Bead (4 #1182) Red Skeezix (1164), Meeko (1174), Drain Bead (1178), Tom Scud (1182 1184)
Meeko (3 #1184) Mental Guy (1168), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1170), Tom Scud (1184)
0 Votes
Tom Scud
peekercpa
storyteller0910
Alka Seltzer
Red Skeezix
Mental Guy
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
*Lynch Leader
Not voting: peekercpa, storyteller0910, Alka Seltzer
Um Ed, I think your vote count is wrong. I don’t think Drain ever voted for herself.
A valid point
Corrected Vote Count with about 4 days, 0 hours, and 32 minutes to go
(peak vote in parentheses)
with 9 players alive, it will take 7 votes to start a countdown timer.
4 Votes
*Meeko (4 #1184) Mental Guy (1168), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1170), Drain Bead (1178), Tom Scud (1184)
2 Votes
Drain Bead (3 #1182) Red Skeezix (1164), Meeko (1174), Tom Scud (1182 1184)
0 Votes
Tom Scud
peekercpa
storyteller0910
Alka Seltzer
Red Skeezix
Mental Guy
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
*Lynch Leader
Not voting: peekercpa, storyteller0910, Alka Seltzer
I’m assuming that the scum players did know what roles the other players had. This is supposed to be a very straightforward mafia game, and unknown scum roles at the start would be an innovation I haven’t come across before.
From #67, in the scum role PMs:
I expect it says “the other scum are XXXXXX who is the XXXXXX, YYYYYY who is the YYYYYY and ZZZZZZ who is the ZZZZZZ” rather than “the other scum are XXXXXX, YYYYYY and ZZZZZZ”.
If I’m right about this, Drain’s self defence argument is not valid. It’s a weak defence anyway, not every vote for scum is a bus.
Honestly Ed, I don’t think we are being thick here, just paranoid. There is some ambiguity. It would save us all some frustration and time if you’d just answer the questions please.
@MentalGuy - I’m also waiting to hear your thoughts on the possible blocks.
I’m sorry. I figured my claim cleared up the question of Night 3, as my being Vanilla makes the only other option that the Scum went after a protected peeker. As for Night 5, I don’t know why you’re asking me what happened, when it seems like everyone involved in Night actions other than the Scum have confessed to doing them. What is it you’d like cleared up that I can help with?
I also don’t know if it was officially established that the Scum didn’t know one another’s roles. I know we had a short discussion about it on Day One, because I was assuming they DID know, until someone else pointed out that the role PM construction in post 67 said that they only knew names, not roles.
Wonder who that was who said that, actually. Don’t have time to go back and look ATM.
Oh, and Meeko…I have an innie, not an outie.
I think Guiri first pointed it out, and Rin endorsed Guiri’s reading. This is from memory and I don’t have the post numbers.
Same thing that I want from all non-confirmed players, I’d like your take on what is the most likely reason that Peeker wasn’t blocked last night please.
There are four scenarios that should be considered by all town players as to why Peek was not blocked last night.
1 (Blocker is Blocked). Red Skeezix (me) is the scum roleblocker and scum did try to block peeker last night.
I know this is not true. But there is no possible way any town player would be able to know this. (If it was someone else who was blocked last night I’d be looking real closely at their posts. And I do hope that my fellow townsfolk are looking at mine.)
2 (Overkill). Scum blocked guiri: Possible Motive: Scum felt that their killer was exposed and might be roleblocked, so they wanted to ensure that no detective result would be forthcoming today. Since town only has one roleblocker, we would not be able to prevent both a kill and a roleblock.
3 & 4 (WiFoM). Scum did not block, or fired into the crowd:
Possible Motives: Scum would anticipate that they would be expected to block peek and kill guiri, so they felt that not blocking peek would throw suspicion onto who ever the town roleblocker blocked. Maybe they thought that the town roleblocker wouldn’t claim today and they would be able to suss out who it was simply by looking at who is suspicious of who.
In my own personal opinion I think the overkill scenario (2) is the most likely with (1) being impossible.