ed and i have been busy on the giraffe. give him a little time to tidy up.
sorry. I’m here. gotta throw out this quick wipe and get morning posted.
Day 6 has begun
But not for MHaye, Vanilla Town or for GuiriEnEspaña, Town Cop
Day 6 is scheduled to end at 8 PM CST, on Saturday, January 16th.
With 9 players alive, it will take 7 votes to start a countdown of 12-18 hours.
- Tom Scud
- Drain Bead
- peekercpa
- storyteller0910
- Alka Seltzer
- Red Skeezix
- Meeko
- Mental Guy
- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
pedescribe, Serial Killer (Lynched Day 1)
amrussel, Vanilla Town (Killed Night 1)
DiggitCamara, Vanilla Town (Lynched Day 2)
Zeriel, Vanilla Town (Killed Night 3)
Mahaloth, Vanilla Town (Lynched Day 3)
Freudian Slit, Scum Goon, (Lynched Day 4)
[color=Blue]USCDiver, Town Doc (Killed Night 4)
ToeJam, Vanilla Town (Killed Night 4)
Nanook of the North Shore, Vanilla Town (Lynched Day 5)
MHaye, Vanilla Town (Killed Night 5)
GuiriEnEspaña, Town Cop (Killed Night 5)[/color]
These guys have investigated town, or have not been counterclaimed.
- Tom Scud
- peekercpa
- Alka Seltzer
I know I am town. - Red Skeezix
There are 2-3 scum in this group. That puts any town player at 40-60% chance of randomly hitting scum from this pool (replacing me with them in the known town part).
- Drain Bead
- storyteller0910
- Meeko
- Mental Guy
- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
I’m gonna stick with my suspicions from yesterday for now (Drain Bead, Meeko) and
vote Drain Bead
Are you sure you don’t want to go for Meeko first?
:dubious:
What? He was my vote for most of yesterday, and if you want to lynch him too, that’s two. I will need to re-read Drain Bead before I can potentially join you there, and we had better all be voting in a town block one way or another or we’re humped.
Who’s ready to mass-claim?
I see nothing wrong with your math there Skeezix. While I still think Tom could be the godfather, I think we are better off lynching in that second group. I am going to go with my second choice from yesterDay.
vote Meeko
for the same reasons mentioned yesterDay. His undermotivated votes and while I don’t remember him defending Freudian ( I need to go back and look), he did seem to be following her.
While nothing can be done about it now, and until we find more scum, peeker should probably put his weapon away, I just want to say I think that was a poor choice of target from peeker last Night (I am assuming he offed MHaye, if he offed Guiri, it was a ridiculous choice). Even if the godfather has been investigated, he would have had the same odds of hitting scum in the second group, with the side benefit that if he hit town, it would have reduced that pool of uninvestigated, making our lynching scum toDay more likely. I know he has been suspicious of MHaye for much of the game, but I really think he should have went with the odds on this one.
Also, I know there are a couple of things that I did not get to respond to on Saturday. I will get to those things tomorrow or Wednesday.
On preview, as you can see Cookies, I am voting Meeko, but I do wonder why you think we need to all vote for your candidate, especially right at the beginning of the Day?
It doesn’t have to be my candidate, but it has to be a candidate and I don’t have a good read on Drain Bead at the moment, other than being a voice of seeming reason to switch my vote to Tom yesterDay. Skeez had already stated suspicions of Meeko and Drain equally, yet did not explain why he felt more like voting for Drain of the two so as maybe I could have been swayed by his rationale.
Feel free to continue being spooked by nothing though. And what is the point of calling attention to a vote that was not posted at the time that I made my post like I could predict the future?
NETA And Vote Meeko
The Drain suspicion is heavier do to what I see as careful exaggeration of the threat story presents if he is scum, combined with the fact that she believes he should be lynched if he is town. I really get a “He’s too dangerous to be alive, doesn’t matter if he’s town or not!” vibe from her post. Her story smudge is so overblown and seemingly duplicitous that it really strikes me as really scummy. If you can see any holes in what I am saying please feel free (anyone) to point them out.
The Meeko suspicion is largely due to his aggressive/defensive stance and undermotivated votes. The problem is that he voted me once, and he has accused me of baiting him twice now. I’m not sure if that’s coloring my opinion of his votes at this time.
I’m going to claim.
I am the Tax Inspector (Town Blocker). Each night, I can pull a surprise audit on a player, causing them to stay up all night sorting out their tax records, thus forfeiting any night action.
(Since this is colourless mafia, I’ve invented my own).
My actions were as follows:
Night 1 – no action.
Night 2 – no action.
Night 3 – Blocked Drain Bead (result, no night kill, Peeker was blocked, Doc was protecting Peeker).
Night 4 – Blocked MHaye.
Night 5 – Blocked Red Skeezix (result, no block?).
Best case I’ve found two scum, worst case I’ve found none. We know for sure that Drain can’t be the scum blocker, because Peeker was blocked the night I targeted her. Red Skeezix is unlikely to be the remaining goon (the scum blocker or Godfather probably weren’t doing the wetwork last night, although their choice might be affected by how exposed their players are).
Night 3 was interesting, it was just after Freudian’s fake claim. The question is, did the scum take a shot at Peeker, hoping that the doc would be self protecting? If not, I blocked the kill, and Drain Bead is scum.
Last night Peeker wasn’t blocked. Either I targeted the scum blocker, he was busy doing something else, or their action was no block. Looking at the possibilities:
• Block and kill Guiri, as insurance that he would not get another result in the event that the town blocker stopped the kill.
• Kill Guiri, and block into the pool, hoping to prevent the town blocker from interfering with the kill.
• Kill Guiri and block Peeker.
• Kill Guiri, no block.
We can’t know for sure, but some scenarios are more likely than others.
@Town – Give me your thoughts please, what do you think are the most likely scenarios for Nights 3 and 5?
@Storyteller – What are your thoughts on the Mahaloth wagon?
**Curses!
Get the rest for me Town!**
Mr. SE, spoilers would be nice. Please?
Cookies, What exactly are the reasons for your vote on me? IIRC you said it was an OMGUS vote yeserday. Is today’s vote simply warmed over sloppy seconds?
Speaking of OMGUS, What’s up with Mental?
“The sky is blue, I can has vote meeko?”
Unless I missed something, this is undermotivated.
To say nothing of Skeezix.
He also offers “Undermotivated”, and then goes further to basically state “This vote might be OMGUS, might not”.
The night Drain was blocked, there was no night kill?
That’s enough for me.
**
Vote Drain Bead**
FOS Skeezix
@Meeko - Why do you think it’s more likely that I picked the scum killer than that the scum chose to target Peeker? You need to justify your vote. Also, what do you thin happened last night and why?
As I understand it, you are asking me why I believe one case over another, correct?
Case A:
1.Scrum Drain attempts a Night Kill.
2.Blocker Alka Seltzer blocks Drain.
3.Peeker is Blocked.
4.No Night Kill.
Case B:
1.Scum Drain attempts a Night Kill.
2.Drain Targets Peeker, above anyone else.
3.Doctor Protects Peeker, above anyone else.
4.Doctor Effectively Blocks Drain.
5.Peeker is Blocked.
6.No Night Kill.
Are these the two cases you speak of? I will work on the assumption that they are.
When competing hypotheses are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selection of the hypothesis that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities while still sufficiently answering the question.
- I am working on the assumption that Peeker is our Vig.
- I am working on the assumption that Drain is scum.
- I am working on the assumption that Scum will kill every chance they get. This might be WIFOM* on my part, but I think given how this game is going, it is a good bet.
You tell us you blocked Drain.
You tell us that, that night, Peeker was blocked.
That night there was no night kill.
There was no Vig Kill
There was no Scum Kill
I’m not about to vote for Peeker.
I’m left voting Drain, as I have.
Am I missing something?
I see a late power role claim, that is promptly night killed.
Being that a power role claimed, that would be enough of a reason.
- Did I actually use WIFOM correctly here?
Well. That was unexpected. Back with thoughts in a little bit; I have to attend to some pressing work stuff but should have some free time around lunch.
I’m Vanilla Town. I know, my claim shocks you all. 
Meeko, you didn’t actually answer Alka’s question, in that everything you said was assuming that I am Scum. Why are you so quick to believe that I am Scum, when to any other outside observer it would seem that it was just as likely that the Scum were attempting to off the one confirmed Town?
I think you refuse to consider all options because you know I’m Town, and you have the opportunity to take the heat off of yourself by trying to direct it to me.
vote Meeko
On point 3, we know the doctor protected Peeker, because USCDiver told us so when he claimed.
On 1, there is no doubt that Peeker is the vig. On 3, I think we can safely rule out a “no-kill” on night 3 (no-kill can be a strong move for scum, but not when there were 3 unclaimed power roles kicking around).
Yes. (Scum will generally act in their best interests, but sometimes do not in order to confuse town).
@Meeko - What do you think is the most likely explanation for the result of last night’s actions?
@Peeker - I’d be grateful if you’d hold off commenting on the night actions for the time being.
@Drain - On preview, you’ve also ignored my questions.
I’m vanilla town, so I won’t be countering Alka.
Night 3: I think scum targetted peeker that night. The main reason is that Nanook was still alive, when there was no counterclaim to freudian being the doctor, it might have looked fairly solid that he was the doctor, and was absent and unlikely to be protecting peek.
Night 5: I have to assume that the scum roleblocker shot into the crowd. If you roleblocked me then the block had no effect since I don’t have a night action. This is a move that I don’t understand from scum. It seems like inefficient play on the part of scum. With the doctor dead, they could have killed guiri and blocked peek again which is what I was expecting.
@Meeko: Was that an OMGUSFOS? 
Also your Scenario B: is the simpler one since it doesn’t require drain to be the actor, any player could be the actor. Also I can see the logic behind your vote, but it doesn’t apparently take into account the fact since there was no doctor counterclaim and Nanook was absent.