and since alka didn’t block me Night 1 and i had been on skeez before ped i can totally see him hedging his bets and blocking me.
Maybe not with the analysis, but the fact that your case against me contains nothing but assertions about what scum would have done or wouldn’t have done given what limited information that you have. You are making a mistake, and are assuming that the only possible course of action for scum is that which makes most sense to you. You have crafted a case which cannot be successfully argued against. The best I could do is throw some doubt against you assertions about what scum would have done or wouldn’t have done, or call into question the likelihood of those assertions. Which would be fruitless IMO.
Vote Count with about 2 days, 1 hour, and 31 minutes to go
(peak vote in parentheses)
with 9 players alive, it will take 7 votes to start a countdown timer.
4 Votes
*Meeko (4 #1184) Mental Guy (1168), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1170), Drain Bead (1178), Tom Scud (1184)
2 Votes
Drain Bead (3 #1182) Red Skeezix (1164), Meeko (1174), Tom Scud (1182 1184)
Red Skeezix (2 #1240) Alka Seltzer (1238), peekercpa (1240)
0 Votes
Tom Scud
peekercpa
storyteller0910
Alka Seltzer
Mental Guy
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
*Lynch Leader
Not voting: storyteller0910
PS, the Scum did not know the roles of the other Scum. That should have been clear from the Role PMs (perhaps it wasn’t once I removed their names). I have given you the exact role PMs that went out (typos and all). That is also an important part of a Day start to the game.
Not sure what to think about the case against Red. My reasons for thinking he’s Town could be based on a faulty premise (that the Scum didn’t know what roles the other Scum had on Day One, so those voting for Freudian when she was in the lead were most likely Town). I doubt we’re going to get an answer to that question at this point, so I don’t know if my underlying assumption is correct, and that casts my conclusion into some more doubt.
I still think Meeko is more Scummy, but that could be a bit of the OMGUS talking, too. His jumping on me and the whole torturous argument for my scumminess that ignored any possibility that I could be Town was…strange, and a bit desperate.
Ha, funny simulpost. I guess we do know now. So Alka, what do you think of that? I think it’s a point in Red’s favor, and am more solidly in the Meeko camp now.
Why do you expect scum to have that perspective? There is a chance, yes, but there are many other possibilities.
As Skeez has already said in his defense, you seem to be caught in some circular logic and I’m just not seeing a compelling reason to jump on that marry-go-round with you.
I also appreciate the clarification from Ed and agree that it is a mark in Red’s favor.
Tom, thank you for that review of Meeko’s play. Like you, I am comfortable with a vote on him at the moment. I agree with Alka that it seems more likely that scum was blocked last Night over Night 3, based on what I think scum would have done. But as I said before, what I would have done would have been based on what I thought peeker would do, and I was wrong about that, so when it comes to predicting what other players will do, I am not overly confident.
So, by default, I suspect Red Skeezix a bit more than Drain Bead, but that is just based on the situation, not on their statements or actions in the thread. Since I noticed this morning that it is Jan. 14th which means I have to complete quarterly taxes by tomorrow, I will definitely not have time for the full reread that I had hoped, but I do think I should be able to review Red and Drain’s posts before tomorrow night and change my vote if I think it necessary.
In light of Special Ed’s statement regarding scum not having information regarding each others roles, and that it lends credence to Drain’s defense based on her voting record.
unvote Drain Bead
vote Meeko
UGH:smack:
Need to learn to preview.
**
unvote Drain Bead**
**
vote Meeko**
Okay, so the clearest defense of Skeezix I’ve seen (as articulated by Drain Bead) rests on his vote for Freudian on Day 1 - it came just after pedescribe claimed, and put Freudian into clear second place, and first place once the pedescribe voters unvoted in response to his claim.
The actual sequence:
(vote snipped). These two posts were nine minutes apart.
Alka, peeker (and others, if you like): does that read like a plausible scum-on-scum vote to you? Bear in mind that ed’s confirmed that the scum did not know each other’s roles on Day 1.
In isolation, yes I’d consider it plausible that a scum player could make such a statement when voting for another scum player but that doesn’t have much bearing on anyone’s alignment in this game. A good scum-bussing-another-scum post looks exactly like a good townie-finding-a-scum post. Or am I missing the point of your question?
Thanks for the clarification Ed.
There is nothing circular about the logic of my argument Cookies.
Hypothesis: Scum had a very strong motive for blocking Peeker last night.
Peeker was not blocked, so the most likely cause is because I targetted the scum blocker. If scum were in a weak position, I can see them taking a risk, and letting Peeker take a shot. But why would they take 2 chances that the Godfather might be exposed when they don’t need to?
I’m not voting Red purely for game mechanics reasons, I’ve already posted some reasons why I’ve found him scummy, and I’ll post a summary later.
It’s interesting, and I’ll need to take another look at a few things, but it doesn’t trouble me greatly. Red was the 4th voter for Freudian, plonking a vote on her buys him some cred. If scum think a team mate is going down they have a strong motive for voting them (look at the way Cat, OaOW and Tiltawhirl piled on the scum blocker Chronos in Screamers).
Yes, if Red is the blocker he’d have been taking a small risk that Freudian might be the Godfather. However, it would have been a pretty safe assumption that the Godfather wouldn’t as much attention to themselves as Freudian did (some scum moves are too stupid to be contemplated). Your argument is essentially “scum wouldn’t vote each other Day 1 because they wouldn’t risk taking out on of their power roles”, which cuts little ice with me. I think it would make the scum goons a little more reluctant to vote for other scum, but the scum power roles would be taking less of a risk, and had more reason to protect themselves.
Personally, if I’d been playing as scum with Freudian my first instinct would have been to bus seven shades of timetable out of her.
The presence of power roles (and the SK) in the game forces scum to adopt something of a bet-hedging strategy. A brick can fall on them at any time (investigation, vig, SK kill or block). Voting each other creates distance, and is a form of insurance.
Btw, Ed’s clarification makes me somewhat suspicious of the players who seemed to know the scum didn’t know which roles each other had on Day 1.
Again, why? In a game that is supposed to be straightforward with the example PMs clearly stated with no such reference, and precedents of scum flying similarly somewhat blind during the first cycle of past games?
Because it was raised as a possibility on Day 1, but never confirmed, and later some players assumed the scum didn’t know each other’s roles.
@Town - Am I right in thinking it’s unusual for the scum not to know each other’s roles, or is that usually part of a day start? If the latter, then knowledge about this is a null tell.
At first I thought like you, but I think the construction of the PM changed my mind when it was pointed out to me.
I’m going to repeat this point, because I think it’s crucial. Why wouldn’t scum block Peeker last night? A vig kill was very unlikely to benefit scum.
- If Peeker hit the Godfather, we’d have 2 or 3 confirmed town. This would dramatically shift the balance of the game.
- Peeker had a good chance of hitting scum. This would give us a lot more information to analyse.
- If Peeker hit town, he wouldn’t change the number of mis-lynches we have. Peeker was likely to target a suspicious looking player, which would make it easier for us to find scum the next Day.
- We had an even number of players, which favours scum. Allowing Peeker to kill gives town a small advantage (toDay, we have a 3 in 9 chance (33%) lynching scum just on the numbers, with no Peeker kill we’d have had a 3 in 10 chance (30%). We also have a slightly higher chance of catching scum on subsequent Days.).
- No block of Peeker increases the odds of the town blocker getting a pseudo-investigative result on scum. With the block, I’d only see a result if I blocked the scum killer or blocker. Without it, I’d see one regardless of which scum I targetted. Again, why would scum want to risk the Godfather at this stage of the game?
So that the town roleblocker would expose himself when peeker wasn’t blocked and then start making accusations based on that little but very wifom-able fact. Heh, now they don’t have to worry about you preventing their kills, now do they?
Unless the godfather is already in the semi confirmed pool. The scum, like us would have expected peeker to shoot into the unconfirmed at all pool. And with all the noise he had been making about killing me and MHaye, they might have expected him to shoot at me. Although the last time he said he’d shoot at either of us, he shot at toe jam.
True. This is why I would have expected them to block peek and kill guiri.
These two statements are arguments in favor of your point only if you assume that the scum strategy is keep as many scum alive as possible. You cannot make this assumption.
I think they would be looking solely at the uncofirmed numbers, which illustrate this point better.
If Tom is the godfather and does the kill, then no it doesn’t. You yourself proclaimed that choosing him for a block would be a bad move. You just have the godfather do the kill.
Overall, I believe that scum would have expected peeker to shoot in the unconfirmed pool. The fact that I know that I am town and not the scum roleblocker, means that they are willing to sacrifice the non-gf players to ensure a gf victory (by not blocking peek last night). It also casts a bad light on Tom Scud, being the only member of the semi-confirmed pool. (They couldn’t have expected peeker to off MHaye) I include peeker and Alka in the confirmed pool, since neither has been counter claimed.
Also, another point against tom scud, for when it comes time to lynch him:
Notice how he’s been sort-of defending me?
I’m thinking it’s because he knows I’m town.
This is my first day start game, so I don’t know. I was working on what I assumed from being scum in other games, that the PMs would include each other’s roles.