Colorless Mafia

[Tom_Scud]

Well, here’s where I am:

I wanted to clarify the argument about Skeezix’s Day 1 vote on Freudian because I find it somewhat compelling, myself. I wanted to see what Alka, in particular, thought of it. I’m also still relatively inexperienced - I’ve only played deep into one game, and that one didn’t feature a lot of bussing (except by the scum who didn’t know who the other scum were); I wanted to see what other people thought of the argument, and Drain hasn’t gotten a lot of responses.

In any case, it now seems likely (from that and his exchanges with skeezix) that Alka is committed to his suspicion. I can’t see peeker changing his mind either. Which means that if Meeko flips Town, we’ll have no choice tomorrow but to follow the lead of the confirmed Town, which would mean a skeezix lynch.

If I were very confident that Meeko were scum, I’d keep my vote there; but I’m not. The competing explanation, that he’s a Town player playing an eccentric game, has a decent chance of being true (one of the things that makes Meeko frustrating to play with).

I’m not sure what to make of skeezix - he was on Freudian pretty hard all of Turn 1, and his vote came pretty quickly after her expressed skepticism of pede’s claim; on the other hand, he also pushed two counter-Freudian bandwagons, as the starter of the Diggit wagon and the second vote on MHaye. I also don’t like that he didn’t even acknowledge the self-defense element of his vote-switch to Meeko.

In addition, I can’t help noticing that Meeko, with 5 votes, has at least one scum vote on him for absolute certainty; skeezix has 2 votes which are certainly not scummy.

All things considered, my suspicions of Meeko are not sufficiently stronger than my suspicions of skeezix to overlook the fact that our only 2 confirmed Town are both on the skeezix wagon.

Also also, I have to say that given the amount of suspicion I’ve garnered already, scum would be insane to try and push me through to a Godfather victory.

unvote Meeko
vote skeezix

[Tom_Scud]

@Alka_Seltzer

@Town - Am I right in thinking it’s unusual for the scum not to know each other’s roles, or is that usually part of a day start? If the latter, then knowledge about this is a null tell.

I have no idea - I’d never played an open setup or day start before, and still haven’t ever played scum; I was operating on the assumption that scum knew who each other were until Guiri/Rin/Cookies pointed out on Day 1 that the text of the Scum PM didn’t support that assumption. From then, I assumed that Ed would have worded the sample pms something like “X, a roleblocker, Y, a goon, and Z, an alpha” if he’d sent the scum their teammates’ role info.

[Alka_Seltzer]

@Red_Skeezix

Heh, now they don’t have to worry about you preventing their kills, now do they?

Well, that depends on whether we lynch the blocker toDay.

@Red_Skeezix

These two statements are arguments in favor of your point only if you assume that the scum strategy is keep as many scum alive as possible. You cannot make this assumption.

I don’t, but a vig kill is not under the control of scum. They can allow for it in their strategy to a degree (see my thoughts above on distancing), but they can only neutralise the threat by blocking.

@Red_Skeezix

I think they would be looking solely at the uncofirmed numbers, which illustrate this point better.

Yes, good point, doing the numbers again our odds of lynching scum toDay go up from 3 in 7 (42%) to 3 in 6 (50%) after a Peeker kill last night. (I didn’t claim until toDay, but scum would assume the town blocker would claim if they were about to be lynched).

@Red_Skeezix

If Tom is the godfather and does the kill, then no it doesn’t. You yourself proclaimed that choosing him for a block would be a bad move. You just have the godfather do the kill.

Possibly, but I think that Tom probably isn’t the Godfather. If the Godfather is in the unconfirmed pool, which is more likely, then getting the Godfather to do the wetwork would be very risky (maybe a better chance of the kill going through, depending on who the other goon is, but a big risk of them getting blocked and being faced with up to 3 confirmed town).

If you, or anyone else, have arguments why Tom is likely to be the scum Godfather I’m interested to hear them.

@Red_Skeezix

Overall, I believe that scum would have expected peeker to shoot in the unconfirmed pool. The fact that I know that I am town and not the scum roleblocker, means that they are willing to sacrifice the non-gf players to ensure a gf victory (by not blocking peek last night). It also casts a bad light on Tom Scud, being the only member of the semi-confirmed pool. (They couldn’t have expected peeker to off MHaye) I include peeker and Alka in the confirmed pool, since neither has been counter claimed.

I’d have more confidence in you making this argument if you’d come up with it before I’d pointed it out myself.

[special_ed]

Vote Count with about 1 days, 9 hours, and 50 minutes to go

(peak vote in parentheses)

with 9 players alive, it will take 7 votes to start a countdown timer.

4 Votes
*Meeko (5 #1249) Mental Guy (1168), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1170), Drain Bead (1178), Tom Scud (1184 1261), Red Skeezix (1249)

3 Votes
Red Skeezix (3 #1261) Alka Seltzer (1238), peekercpa (1240), Tom Scud (1261)

1 Vote
Drain Bead (3 #1182) Red Skeezix (1164 1249), Meeko (1174), Tom Scud (1182 1184)
0 Votes
Tom Scud
peekercpa
storyteller0910
Alka Seltzer
Mental Guy
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

*Lynch Leader
Not voting: storyteller0910

[Red_Skeezix]

@Alka_Seltzer

If the Godfather is in the unconfirmed pool, which is more likely, then getting the Godfather to do the wetwork would be very risky

Why is it more likely that the godfather is in the unconfirmed pool? I say it’s equally as likely.

[Meeko]

I see one chance at this here, and I am taking it now. If Memory serves, even though the votes are tied, I would still be the one to get lynched, right?

Unvote Drain

Vote Skeezix.
**
**
Storyteller, where are you today with your thoughts on the game?

[Red_Skeezix]

@Alka_Seltzer

If you, or anyone else, have arguments why Tom is likely to be the scum Godfather I’m interested to hear them.

How about the fact that he’s been wishy washy the whole game. He’s been quick to change with the wind. His day 2 freudian switch and his jumping around trying to find the best wagon today. First Drain, then a couple of posts later Meeko, then he defended me a little and I called him on it, now that I look like a pretty good lynch he’s voting me. This is not town play. I would however not be willing to vote him today since we have at least two scum sitting in the unconfirmed pool.

[Alka_Seltzer]

@Red_Skeezix

Why is it more likely that the godfather is in the unconfirmed pool? I say it’s equally as likely.

Numbers wise, it’s not equally likely. As I said previously, I don’t think Tom’s play is consistant with a Godfather role (lots of pointless risks for little gain).

@Red_Skeezix

How about the fact that he’s been wishy washy the whole game. He’s been quick to change with the wind. His day 2 freudian switch and his jumping around trying to find the best wagon today. First Drain, then a couple of posts later Meeko, then he defended me a little and I called him on it, now that I look like a pretty good lynch he’s voting me. This is not town play. I would however not be willing to vote him today since we have at least two scum sitting in the unconfirmed pool.

Why didn’t you previously vote for him then Red? Your vote yesterday was for Drain, based on a single post she made, rather than a pattern of behaviour. Did you previously voice any serious suspicions of Tom?

[Red_Skeezix]

@Alka_Seltzer

Numbers wise, it’s not equally likely.

It is equally likely: From my perspective (myself, alka, peeker are town), the sheer numerical probability of Tom being the godfather is 1/6. Confirmed or Unconfirmed doesn’t change those odds.

@Alka_Seltzer

Why didn’t you previously vote for him then Red? Your vote yesterday was for Drain, based on a single post she made, rather than a pattern of behaviour.

The case yesterday was based primarily on his Day 2 behavior which was interesting but could have been coincidental. Combined with his behavior today, I feel it is more indicative.

@Alka_Seltzer

Did you previously voice any serious suspicions of Tom?

Nope, not till I had any today. As soon as I had them, I said them.

@Alka_Seltzer

As I said previously, I don’t think Tom’s play is consistant with a Godfather role (lots of pointless risks for little gain).

Alka, since you won’t listen to any admonition from an unconfirmed player, put this in your back pocket until I’m dead and confirmed town: Be careful about assuming that scum wont make mistakes. Scum will make mistakes and misplays and misreads etc, etc. You and another player who I won’t mention since he’s not in this game rely too heavily on what scum should do as the best course of action, and assume that it is the only action scum would take.

[Alka_Seltzer]

@Red_Skeezix

It is equally likely: From my perspective (myself, alka, peeker are town), the sheer numerical probability of Tom being the godfather is 1/6.

So there is a 5/6 chance that the Godfather is in the unconfirmed pool. 1/6 does not equal 5/6, even at Enron.

@Red_Skeezix

Be careful about assuming that scum wont make mistakes. Scum will make mistakes and misplays and misreads etc, etc. You and another player who I won’t mention since he’s not in this game rely too heavily on what scum should do as the best course of action, and assume that it is the only action scum would take.

No, I’m aware of this. Numbers are just a good starting point for understanding the game, and there is no such thing as an optimal scum strategy.

[Red_Skeezix]

@Alka_Seltzer

So there is a 5/6 chance that the Godfather is in the unconfirmed pool. 1/6 does not equal 5/6, even at Enron.

Fair enough, I obviously wasn’t thinking clearly. From a strict numerical perspective, and after actually going and looking it up, I must agree that the odds are better that the godfather is in the other pack.

And since I am a serious suspect for lynch, I will not be the deciding vote in this case:

unvote Meeko

[Red_Skeezix]

forgot to bold that.
unvote Meeko

[Drain_Bead]

Red, do you realize that your unvote just put you in the lead?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Do you think Meeko isn’t scum now, Red? Because that is the only reason you should be removing your vote. You aren’t going to be “the deciding vote” either. At any moment anyone else already voting can change their minds one way or another or just decide to remove a vote.

I can correlate the odds of the godfather being in the unconfirmed pool to a mark against Skeez, but I am not able to see how it correlates to a make for Meeko.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

NETA “mark for Meeko.”

[Red_Skeezix]

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Do you think Meeko isn’t scum now, Red? Because that is the only reason you should be removing your vote. You aren’t going to be “the deciding vote” either. At any moment anyone else already voting can change their minds one way or another or just decide to remove a vote.

Yeah, I guess you do have a point. I think I’m just getting frustrated with the back and forth that is getting me nowhere with Alka. I do still think he’s the scummiest, then Drain then Tom Scud.

vote Meeko

@Alka: You said you had other reasons for voting for me besides the fact that you roleblocked me last night and peeker wasn’t blocked. What are those reasons again?

I can’t argue against your case as it currently is, although I’ve tried, since it is based solely on your interpretations of your actions combined with what you assume scum would or wouldn’t do in any situation and not currently as it stands not based at all on how I’ve played.

[Meeko]

@Red_Skeezix

Yeah, I guess you do have a point. I think I’m just getting frustrated with the back and forth that is getting me nowhere with Alka. I do still think he’s the scummiest, then Drain then Tom Scud.

vote Meeko

Who references “He” in “I do still think he’s the scummiest”

Skeezix,

Can you explain your Unvote, and your Re-vote?

[Red_Skeezix]

@Meeko

Who references “He” in “I do still think he’s the scummiest”

He is you, unless you are a she, if that is case, then you have my apologies.

@Meeko

Skeezix,

Can you explain your Unvote, and your Re-vote?

Yeah, I was frustrated and wasn’t thinking very clearly. As I unvoted and revoted before any actions were taken, the situation is roughly the same as it was before I revoted. Except that I look a little worse for my gaffe, or maybe a lot worse, who knows?

And since I’m on the point of asking those for the cases against me:

@Meeko

I see one chance at this here, and I am taking it now. If Memory serves, even though the votes are tied, I would still be the one to get lynched, right?

Do you have any other reason to vote for me other than I’m the only bandwagon that isn’t you?

If so, please reiterate so that I may defend myself.

[Red_Skeezix]

@Tom_Scud

I’m not sure what to make of skeezix - he was on Freudian pretty hard all of Turn 1, and his vote came pretty quickly after her expressed skepticism of pede’s claim; on the other hand, he also pushed two counter-Freudian bandwagons, as the starter of the Diggit wagon and the second vote on MHaye. I also don’t like that he didn’t even acknowledge the self-defense element of his vote-switch to Meeko.

I didn’t push any bandwagons, I saw what I thought was scummy behavior and voted accordingly.

I actually didn’t notice the self defense aspect of the vote until you pointed it out. At 4 & 2, I don’t think it was that defensive in any case. I was pulling my vote since I had two suspects in mind for today: Meeko and Drain, and when Drain pointed out the unlikelihood of her bussing freudian on day 1 and Ed confirming that scum did not know each other’s roles prior to night 1, I decided to go with my next suspicion : Meeko. Had my suspicion been Drain and another I would have changed to the other and made my case accordingly.
Note also that I laid my suspicions for the day right out front, at the beginning of the day. So it wasn’t such an opportunistic play as you so mischaracterize it.

@Tom_Scud

In addition, I can’t help noticing that Meeko, with 5 votes, has at least one scum vote on him for absolute certainty; skeezix has 2 votes which are certainly not scummy.

Hey if I get lynched today, we’ll see if confirmed as town = right. And whether or not that is a good justification for a vote this late in the day.

@Tom_Scud

All things considered, my suspicions of Meeko are not sufficiently stronger than my suspicions of skeezix to overlook the fact that our only 2 confirmed Town are both on the skeezix wagon.

So the opinion of the two confirmed is important to you, despite the fact that you unvoted Drain because scum would not bus another scum on day 1 like that, but I voted for Freudian too?

@Tom_Scud

Also also, I have to say that given the amount of suspicion I’ve garnered already, scum would be insane to try and push me through to a Godfather victory.

So, you’re saying scum wouldn’t do that?

And besides it was nice for this whole case who’s points already existed, to magically appear after I started calling you out for your scummy behavior.

[Drain_Bead]

Red, you didn’t really address your unvote to my satisfaction. You said you didn’t want to be the “deciding vote,” but your unvote made you the deciding vote to lynch yourself. I’m a bit puzzled by today’s course of events. Can you explain a bit more of what you were planning on doing after unvoting Meeko?