Chingon, I believe the Pac-16 expansion was actually a Texas move. Texas wants the Big 12 to stay together, as most of the Big 12 schools, with the exception of Missouri, Nebraska, and Colorado. The problem with the Big 12 is that their TV contracts are outdated and un-competitive compared to the Big 10 and the SEC. Which is part of the reason for the dissatisfaction of NU, Mizzou and CU.
The Big Ten (eleven) desparately wants Notre Dame to join their conference so they can be twelve and have a football conference championship game…which would mean more $$$ for the conference. Notre Dame is resistant, because they have been independent (in football) for so long. The Big Ten has said they will be patient, but want to make an expansion decision within the next year, possibly even expanding beyond 12 teams. They have expressed interest in Texas, but Texas has said they are not interested. Nebraska and Missouri are next in line.
The Big 12 cannot currently re-negotiate their poor TV contracts as the networks view the conference as in flux with potential teams leaving before the contracts are up for renewal.
SO…Texas had to figure someway to bring Nebraska (mainly) and Missouri and Colorado, back into the fold. Texas approached the Pac-10 conference chairman about an expansion and the ability to bring along 5 other teams from the Big 12. Once the Pac-10 agreed with their interest, Texas approached the other schools (TAMU, TTech, OU, OSU, and CU) and laid out the “back-up plan”. Again, these teams would prefer to keep the Big 12 together. Who really wants to travel all the way up to the Northwestern US for Wednesday night basketball games in the January and February. So at the Big 12 conference meetings last week, they make their ultimatum to Missouri and Nebraska…you have until June 15th to pledge your committment to the conference, with a significant $$$ break-up fee if you renig. So now NU and Mizzou are trying secure invitations to the Big 10…but the Big 10 would rather have Notre Dame…so the Big 10 gave Notre Dame a deadline.
Texas and the other schools will depart the Big 12 to the Pac-16, only if Nebraska leaves the Big 12, which will likely only leave if Notre Dame doesn’t go to the Big 10.
Baylor is lobbying handily with the Texas legislature to keep the 4 Texas schools together if there is a move. Since Texas, TAMU, and TTech’s departure from the Big 12 will require legislative approval, this appears to be a move that Baylor could pull off. They did it in '96 when the Big 12 was formed.
A bunch of dominoes set up waiting to fall…what will Notre Dame do?
We are a small school with zero television appeal and therefore our days of being included in a major conference are running out fast. I think is the beginning of the squeezing out of smaller market schools, where we eventually get four mega-conferences that separate themselves from the rest of the NCAA.