I’m having a hard time understanding why there are so many case upticks across the US. Most of civilized America has been on strict social distancing for over a month now. Are the new cases just family members infecting each other in the same house? Otherwise, forget the growth rate, are we approaching a world with a constant number of infections at all times? If so, can we ever ease social distancing without causing another outbreak?
Kentucky. Chickens. Fried brains. I see a pattern. Message for the Colonel!
“Dumb clucks,” MrsRico says. I can’t disagree.
A week or two ago I was nay-sayed for posting predictions of a COVID wildfire sweeping the US South. Kain-tuck ain’t Deep South but it’s close enough. Many not-all-elderly folks with underlying conditions living with poor health systems and unable to maintain safe distancing. Poor white and non-white communities with little medical support. Leaders unwilling to promote public health guidelines. The petri dish is foaming.
“Strict social distancing”? Where in the US? Here is Las Vegas, at least 80% of people in public have no masks. Few stores have anyone limiting the number of people inside and none of them require masks. Deli counters and meat counters at my grocery stores always have multiple people shoulder-to-shoulder shouting orders across to workers. Parks are filled with people walking and jogging without masks. People have neighbors, friends and family members over in their backyards for BBQ on the weekends. “Strict social distancing” my ass.
My experience has been in NYC and Northern NJ since about March 23rd. I think the only dangerous places are grocery stores, where it’s hard to maintain 6 feet distance. But people have been wearing masks and being extra clean with sanitizer, etc. And that’s my point, this is about the strictest we can possibly be in this country. And yet hundreds of cases keep popping up every day.
…you say “most”. But some states still don’t have lockdown orders. And the situation in America is infinitely more chaotic than anywhere else. By chaos I mean “inconsistent.” No leadership and disinformation directly from the Federal government. Lockdown rules varying from state-to-state, city-to-city, town-to-town, house-to-house. An uptick now is a reflection on what might have happened up to two weeks ago. And in the wake of the protests you’ve seen this week it might take up to two weeks to see if there is another uptick.
Zen of Design on twitter puts up this analogy:
The curve is flattening. But there is no reason to think it will drop off a cliff. As long as chaos reigns in America people will continue to die.
Ive bolded two sentences that are at odds with one another. You don’t have experience in any part of the country except the worst hit, most affected part. And yet somehow, after you read my post directly contradicting yours, you still posted that second sentence that I bolded.
There is no hand sanitizer at 80% of the grocery store entrances in Las Vegas, not even at Costco. Not at Walmart, not at Albertsons, not at Smith’s, although there was at Vons last week (but not two weeks prior). Not at Sprouts or Whole Foods or the India market I go to. They don’t wipe down carts or hand baskets except early in the morning and some places, not even then. Costco may give you one sanitizing wipe as you go inside, but not always.
There is no real enforcement at all of any social distancing rules and so they are often just disregarded or given a token acquiescence.
The public’s response, in my experience, has generally been grudgingly staying home from work but going out to the store 4 or 5 times a week and having people over on the weekends to cook out on the grill.
The response to this, in the US, in my opinion, has been a lackadaisical shitshow, a pretend lockdown at best.
…an update from New Zealand.
Another person has passed away. 
Brings the New Zealand death toll to 13. Five new cases today, 2 confirmed, 3 suspect. Processing 3000 tests a day, including surveillance testing.
We are still in Level 4 lockdown, but yesterday it was announced that next week we will be dropping down to Level 3. We stay at level 3 for another complete incubation cycle (two weeks) before they reassess dropping down to Level 2.
There is almost universal support here for the approach the government is taking. We simply have to look at what is happening here, comparing it to what is happening in the rest of the world, and it become a no-brainer. In about a month most of the country will be back to a “new normal.” The borders will remain closed, people will still social distance, but most of the shops will be opening and figuring out ways to adapt.
The problem is that the US had no plans or protocols drawn up for any kind of national crisis. Numerous people with brains and/or expertise warned of the hazard of a pandemic, but what if it were just some other situation? We have nothing. We very easily could have had a bunch of really sharp people simply draw up a hefty little document outlining crisis management strategies. It would have cost several million dollars for a big book that we would hope to never have to use, but having it on hand when we did need it would have been of massive help.
For someone who seems highly concerned about contacts, you sure are visiting a lot of stores. Research?
Every two weeks on Tuesday I go to Vons. Every two weeks on Thursday I go to Costco and India Market. I have friends who shop at Smith’s, Walmart, Target and other grocery stores.. I ask questions and they answer them. Capiche?
Well, this is just, um, nightmarish. A physician’s op-ed in the New England Journal of Medicine describing the Herculean effort involved in obtaining PPE for the local hospital. It sounds like some kind of illegal drug or gun deal, complete with disguising the shipment in food trucks to keep them from being waylaid by DHS.
In Philadelphia, one hospital recently delived four or five dead bodies to the medical examiner in an open pickup truck. Probably a combination of a lack of the usual transport + a lack of judgement.
2,481,866 total cases
170,455 dead
651,542 recovered
In the US:
792,913 total cases
42,517 dead
72,389 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
There will be more than 2.5 million total cases worldwide tomorrow.
It seems likely that the US will have over 50,000 dead due to Covid-19 before the weekend is upon us.
The other day. two people died of what seems to be the virus. On the New York subway. In a single morning.
There are still plenty of sloppy idjits wandering around ignoring physical distancing, masks, handwashing, etc.
Also, people who still insist on gathering in groups. Doesn’t matter if it’s church, a backyard BBQ, slobs at the grocery store, extended families, whatever.
All it takes is one asymptomatic carrier (whether for the full infection or just for days to a week before showing symptoms) to trigger a new hotspot, which then produces more asymptomatic spreaders generating more infections…
If we had had effective and competent leadership on the Federal level we would have had a much better response overall. Past experience shows that when a PotUS actually does the job the US can function very well.
We don’t have a competent PotUS. It’s not mere incompetence - there is mounting evidence that the people at the very top are actively sabotaging efforts to deal with the pandemic. Not out of sadistic evil (although there might be individuals for whom that’s an additional condiment on the shit-sandwich) but simply through greed, valuing money above all other consideration.
The current mess is the result.
There are still new cases not just because people are idjits. Social distancing does not confer perfect protection; it just reduces spread. So people following all the best practices can still be infected. People following the best practices imperfectly (which is all of us at some point in time) can still be infected.
There are a large number of people who are not social distancing right now because they can’t, as essential workers. And these folks are getting infected and unfortunately spreading it. Especially to family.
Yeah, some people are idjits and jerks. But I don’t want people to get into the mindset that anyone who gets sick must have done something wrong. Every weekend for the past couple of weeks, I’ve been driving two hours to babysit my nieces because their mother has been deployed to fight the virus and their father needs help. Every time I make the trip and stop for gas, I push my luck. We took a risk the other day when we burned some energy at the city park. So I might get sick, and I might end up get other people sick. I hope this doesn’t happen, but my fear isn’t going to stop me from carrying out my family duties.
… and also more testing I would think.
The astrology subreddit has a corona megathread. I wonder how the crystal healing people are doing.