The newspapers here have now had a chance to produce more extensive articles on the study. (Last night I was quoting from a newspaper’s live blog, which got the 3400 figure from a minister’s press conference rather than the actual written report of the study, which had only just been released.) They report that margin of error for the number of active cases is bounded by 11,000. So no, not quite as bad as 20 to 30 times the estimate—more like 2 or 3 times.
Every night seems a bit much. We have a weekly clap across the UK every Thursday evening. Even that is becoming a little much in my opinion.
I do it now mainly as an opportunity to say hi to the neighbours.
Aaaaaand we’re over 70,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States.
There are signs that the body count may be slowing down somewhat, but not a lot. And a number of red states are opening things up again, which ain’t gonna help.
RTFirefly: the administration is much more confident than you or I:
Well I’m sure that coronavirus deaths by then will be down to a completely normal and acceptable 1000-1500 per day. And very few Iphigenias among them, I’m sure, so a quite reasonable price to pay for a fair [del]wind[/del] economy.
Today in Austria:
[ul]
[li] The government is once again walking back its support for making use of a coronavirus tracking app mandatory. The interior minister today once again claimed that use of such apps would be entirely voluntary. Some other minister—I forget which one—said the same thing late last night. And the government advisor who was yesterday reported as supporting mandatory use of a tracking app today claimed that she had been misquoted.[/li][li] Results of a nationwide study on the pandemic’s effect on mental health show an increase in the prevalence of symptoms of depression (from 4% to 20%) and of anxiety (from 5% to 19%). The study used a representative sample of 1009 people. Worst affected were adults under 35, women, singles, and the unemployed. Adults over 65 were among the least affected.[/li][li] The government has increased financial aid for arts and culture by over €3 million. The money will support those in the film industry (including movie theatres), the publishing industry, and the music industry.[/li][li] Yesterday I reported that Vienna International Airport started to offer elective coronavirus tests for incoming passengers at a cost of €190. Seventy tests were carried out on the first day. The airport is now extending its offer to non-travellers: anyone in Austria can call them up for an appointment. (Tests carried out by the public health system remain free, but to be eligible you generally either have to work in a high-risk occupation, or else show that you have been in contact with someone known to have the virus.)[/li][li] Current statistics: 15,579 confirmed infections, 606 deaths, 13,462 recovered.[/li][/ul]
I predict you are wrong.
Let’s re-visit and find out.
Right now New York is doing by far the most horrible of all states.
Florida, with more elderly, seems to be doing quite a bit better.
California is doing well.
I think what will emerge is that various factors (crowding in NY, e.g.) contribute hugely. But what I do NOT think will emerge is some kind of epidemiologic “horrible news” in states that relax their lockdowns.
But instead of arguing about it, let’s just re-visit and see.
And I’ll ask the same (rhetorical) question of you:
"Will the [expletives deleted] leaders ordering such insanity (persistent lockdowns without observable benefit as compared with looser states) say, “Oops, my bad” when their economies tank?
Friday at 5 PM state of NC is going to phase 1. Most businesses can open. Restaurants still only allowed takeout. Hair Salons, barbers, gyms , and similar places remain closed.
Hawaii’s Health Department updates their figures every day at 12 noon, reporting the latest compiled over the previous 24 hours. We just passed 12 noon, and today Hawaii reported four new cases for a total of 625; and one new death for a total of 17.
A West Texas bar reopened in violation of the governor’s shutdown orders, and put a group of guys in combat gear out in front to intimidate cops if they should show up to shut the place down. Cops showed up and hauled the owner away anyway. The armed guys didn’t put up a fight. In fact, they were also arrested without incident.
11,000 sounds about right for an upper bound given those figures. You misinterpreted what the 20-30 times was referring to. Not the upper bound to the estimate, but the upper bound to the lower bound. The lower bound given the statistical data is presumably less than 1,000 and quite likely lower than the number of actual cases. This can be attributed to presumably intentionally not testing anyone who was already identified as infected. Thus the estimate is of the number of undetected cases, not the number of total cases, and so it stands to reason that there could easily be over 50% of the cases identified and thus less undetected cases than detected.
What are you talking about? Right now, by count of souls lost, it looks like NJ and PA are, day by day, faring worsely.
Basically, we the people are being thrown under the bus in favor of profits.
What lockdowns? In what US jurisdictions do police force residents to remain indoors? Cites, please.
Back to the conundrum. Impose controls too soon and gosh, nothing happened. Impose exactly the right controls at exactly the right time and it’s only a little bad, not enough to overwhelm medical facilities and first responders. Impose controls too late and disaster spirals. Do you understand exponential curves? Hardly any slope, then a slight slope, then a vertical rise. COVID incubates. The results show up later. Got enough body bags?
I stand by my prediction. Locales opening early and loosely will feed the brushfire. “Leaders” pulling this shit will finds someone to blame other than themselves.
…after 2 days of no new cases, New Zealand had two new cases announced today, bringing the number of confirmed and probable cases to the unfortunate total of 1488. 
Hoping for some recoveries tomorrow so that number will change.
3,727,864 total cases
258,340 dead
1,242,393 recovered
In the US:
1,237,633 total cases
72,271 dead
200,628 recovered
Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:
They’re suppressing their numbers.
Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.
And they started releasing the data again.