Yoho is so conservative he doesn’t believe in fire…
Shit is getting real in some areas.
It seems like the ultimate death rate from the princess cruise passengers and crew (once none of them are ill anymore) should give a decent estimate of the mortality rate. They’ve all been tested multiple times, so there should not be any hidden cases. I’m not saying it is a perfect way to figure it out, because there was a lot that was not normal about that population, but the most confounding issue has been the “what’s the denominator” question, which I think this population offers some degree of certainty about.
The numbers are, as of today, 706 cases and 6 dead, for a CFR of about 0.8 %. Still much deadlier than seasonal flu, but not the 3.6 % mentioned earlier.
Because there’s some evidence that the on-board quarantine made the spread of the virus worse, this population doesn’t seem to be a good one to figure out what proportion of a population will likely get the disease. (About 19% wound up getting sick, but the initial reproduction number was 14.8 before the quarantine on the ship, which is much higher than it has been calculated elsewhere.)
Really interesting interview in Vox magazine:
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. […]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. […]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
Source: Vox Interview
By earlier, do you mean earlier today?
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.
The denominator (the number of cases) may not be as hard to pinpoint as originally thought. Today a WHO researcher who has been in the thick of things in China announced that there is little evidence for this massive sea of asymptomatic carriers that people seem to be talking about in the media. Apparently you see a bunch of asymptomatic spreaders of the flu virus, but WHO researchers aren’t seeing that with the novel coronavirus.
There are a lot of reasons why we shouldn’t try to generalize too much from this population.
Ninja’d by Fiendish Astronaut!
93,158 confirmed infections
3,198 dead
50,690 recovered
In the US:
125 confirmed infections
9 dead
8 recovered
I kind of wish all the tallies I’ve seen for this would order it differently. They all look like, for example with the US numbers, 8 people have recovered from death.
153 in the US now.
I suspect the real number is much larger, but there has not been enough testing done. It’s out in the general community now.
Reddit AMA from medical researchers: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/fdemjd/we_are_researchers_at_mriglobal_developing/
Son of a gun! There are now two strains of COVID-19.
So it looks like we’ve got a cruise ship being held of the coast here in San Francisco. I’m sure that’s been reported here. Considering that and the ship that was held in Yokohama it occurred to me that having people confined to a big ship is an effective way to enforce a quarantine.
Being quarantined anywhere is not going to be fun. But if it’s a cruise ship at least there might be more “amenities” than in other places, like your home. I’m almost afraid to mention this because I’m sure there’s something obvious I’m overlooking but… if this thing gets moderately bad maybe hospital ships could be an option? Maybe not in Wyoming though?
Here we are in Florence. The government said to open the museums for free the weekend. People we know here are losing money. The Savoy Hotel, five star, in Florence closed. All those people out of work. Restaurant s closed…sad.
I don’t think a cruise ship is effective for quarantine. Look at what happened on the last one. The passengers and crew should have been moved to a medical facility and not turned into, essentially, a petri dish for this virus.
This idea keeps coming up. Do you know of a medical facility that can effectively quarantine 3700 people?
You don’t need a medical facility, just some kind of basic housing where they are not crowded together like they were on the ship. Still easier said than done.
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So, you are saying countries ranking lower on WHO health index has lesser cases of corona virus than the ones that rank on top?
Don’t think “a medical facility”. Japan is a modern country of 126 million people. Think “many facilities”. Another option would have been to emulate what the PLA did and deploy what are essentially MASHs.
95,748 confirmed infections
3,286 dead
53,423 recovered
In the US:
159 confirmed infections
11 dead
8 recovered
It would have to be very, very many facilities, since most any functional facility you can point to would already have many of its beds occupied. US hospitals have a 65% occupancy rate; presumably Japan’s hospitals are similar in this regard. A typical hospital has about 500 beds, so would have maybe 175 beds available. You’d need to locate 21 such facilities and arrange for transport of your quarantine subjects to them. You wouldn’t want to fill them to capacity either, so you’d really want quite a bit more than 21 facilities.
It would take considerable time to make all of that happen - maybe as long as a 2-week quarantine aboard the ship.
You also need to secure them so they can’t just wander out in public. And have a way to bring food and living supplies to all of them.