Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News

Heh. For me it’s been since circa March of 2017(?) and that was a medical marijuana doctor.

According to the Johns Hopkins site, the seven-day average daily case numbers in India are now over 350,000. That’s per day, again. That’s a new record, and far exceeds the highest US daily record, which was about 250,000 back in January. And it still appears to be going sharply upwards.

I thought this was a good presentation of excess deaths and COVID in 2020: Excess Deaths February Update - kieranhealy.org

Arizona:

Missouri:

If a vaccine is expected to be 80% or 95% effective, surely we expect to see some cases among vaccinated people, though.

Sure; I think this is just part of the process of determining that number, tho. Outliers are always interesting and this time we can watch the real-world data manifest in real time.

The additional question is whether even those who do get covid after vaccination get a milder case of it than they would otherwise. If so, the vaccination’s not a complete failure in them either.

Excellent point, thorny locust.

Right now I think we’re still in the “gathering data” phase of this pandemic. In fact, I’m not sure that phase ever really ends now that we can really crunch numbers.

Brazil now has more than 400,000 covid deaths.

Oregon:

I know S_B has reported some that have tested positive after being fully vaccinated, but I wonder how long full efficacy takes? There are tons of news reports of people testing positive after being vaccinated like MT Governor/brawler Gianforte, but he tested positive a few days after his first Pfizer/Moderna jab. How long after the second round of both those two (or the one J&J) should you expect to get the full efficacy? I know of people that feel they are invincible too soon after getting a jab.

The CDC says:

Thanks! That’s a lot longer after what most people think. We seriously have a “I got a jab and am partying now” mentality around these parts.

I get my 2nd jab Saturday. I still will be super conservative, even after that two weeks has gone by. My wife had a second coworker die of covid this week, and I have an employee that is now on his 6th week of covid pneumonia leave. This shit is real.

I have a question about that. Everything seems to say 12–14 days after the jab, but surely there’s some gradual onset, not a (metaphorical) light switch that flips on Day 13. But equally, it’s still probably 0% for hours or days after you get the shot.

So how long after the shot is it before you start to get some protection, and how long does it take (=on what time scale) to ramp up to the as-good-as-it’s-gonna-get on Day 14?

It’s Schrödinger’s Inoculation: both fully effective and nonexistent at the same time until need collapses the waveform or 14 days pass.

You’re undoubtedly correct, and even the experts say that there’s nothing magical about 14 days, though it sounds like they have seen that, for most people, protection levels typically plateau at around that point.

But, a couple of minutes of googling yield articles that don’t shed a lot of additional light, other than noting that it takes “some time” from when you get the shot for your immune system to start to react to the vaccine and develop antibodies.

Here’s the graph that shows effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine by days after the first dose. You can see the vaccinated group starts to diverge from the placebo group around day 11. I’m sure they picked 14 days as the recommended timeframe to account for the range of responses, and because it’s easy for everyone to calculate.

We had a thread on that a while ago, and I did a bunch of research at the time. Here’s what i posted.

Unfortunately, the NEJM has moved the graphs so they no longer show up nicely in the thread, but you can still see them if you open the article.

TL;DR you get almost no immunity right away. You develop a lot of immunity about two weeks after the first jab, and the additional benefit of the second jab is mostly accrued within a week.

On a population of 210M. So very roughly 1 per 500 capita.

The US numbers are 587K dead out of 331M ~= about the same per capita.

We’re slightly higher per capita, but started sooner and are slowing down while they’re still picking up speed. A humanitarian disaster in the making.