Might the stress of actually having to govern finally become too much for Trump? He can’t go golfing at Mal-De-Mar anymore; he doesn’t have any rallies of adoring fans to praise him. He’s forced to actually do work day-in and day-out. How long can he endure? Is “endure” a word that Trump even knows?
Yeah, I think the 55% approval can only persist during this pre-exponential stage. When the tens of thousands of deaths kick in, it will be a different story.
However, if things are still severe in November, Trump could also pull an FDR and use the “Don’t change horses in the middle of the stream” argument.
Most likely, Trump will get a temporary boost in the polls when the trillion-dollar virus-relief stimulus package passes Congress and kicks in, but then sink back down again when deaths keep climbing with no end in sight.
Shit, we changed horses in 1932. And 1992. And 1976. The idea that the incumbent party is a good bet to win in a recession is a suckers bet, even more so the asshole which got us there. Bush had record Gulf War popularity and was still looking for a job come January, 1993.
People who are attacked are victims. People who hear “Chinese virus” and get their noses bent out of shape are not.
:rolleyes: My wife, a teacher, will sometimes pose the question to our daughter: “What are some context clues you could use here?”
This. Also the thing about Americans being morons. Although even on the Triple Nine Society Facebook group, there are STILL a few people who defend the guy. :smack:
No. This is not the reason. Voters being morons or just fundamentally bad people has nothing to do with money in politics.
On the Hacks on Tap podcast, they said David Plouffe is heading a super-PAC that is running such ads. David Axelrod actually is a bit at odds with his old partner, opining that he thinks it could come across poorly to run partisan ads at this time. I respect both of them a lot, and working together they ran an amazing presidential campaign, so I’m unsure who’s right.
That’s a fair question. My sense is that Trump’s fans would protest at any time; and non-fans would see a critique of his handling of the pandemic as 100% fair and even useful. So far, so obvious.
With regard to fence-sitters-who-vote, a lot would depend on the tone of the ads. I thought the one-minute Rule-of-Law one came down on the right side of not-snarky and purely factual—which would have the best chance of striking fence sitters as “fair.” There’s no commentary—no slant or spin. It’s just Trump’s own words + accurate statistics.
That type of thing would be the best direction for Plouffe’s efforts, I think.
You’d think. But you’d also think he never would have had a chance to become president to begin with. The fact that we even have to think about how to defeat him for reelection is a very sad commentary on a large swath of the American population.
Then you’ve never had ipecac. Nothing will make you puke faster. You have time enough to think it tastes pretty gooBWAAAAA, your innards turn inside out.
I’m reposting this from another thread, hoping to give it a bit more traction.
A couple of people said yes, they thought this could happen, that Pence’s inoffensively bland appearance makes him a welcome contrast to DJT, to which I replied:
Could it happen? Four-eight more years of a Republican administration?
Yes, it could happen. I’ve said already that part of Biden’s appeal over Bernie is that people are tired of being yelled at. They are tired of all the drama and hysterical behavior.
So remove Trump from the equation and let two relatively calm, grandpa-like figures run against each other and yes, Pence could get elected.
I think the drama and hysteria are a significant part of Trump’s “appeal”, for lack of a better word. From a policy standpoint Pence would be similar (probably less overtly racist and xenophobic) but would totally lack the ability to rally the base. I think he’d get crushed by Biden.
