Suppose Giuliani gets the Republican nomination. Does that put New York in play in the '08 general election?
Assume for the sake of this thread that Hillary Clinton does not get the Democratic nomination - that it goes to Obama or Edwards or Gore. Would New York be reliably Democratic, or could Giuliani put it in the Republican column as a favorite son? How well-liked is he in New York?
Are there any other states which a Giuliani candidacy might put into play?
I dunno. Maybe New Jersey and Connecticut. Outside of the Tri-State I’d think his influence would be weak, outside the Northeast probably nil.
This is all assuming he could get the nomination, which is beyond a longshot.
Possibly. But he is the current leader in polling among Republican voters.
Of course! He’s excellent at deflecting criticism - you should watch him in an interview. Doesn’t sound defensive at all. And for the people in NY he’s like a god when they think of him and 9/11. Maybe someone can dig up the first Letterman show after 9/11, you’ll see what I mean.
9/11 was a while ago, and I think Bush has nearly ridden that pony lame, as far as winning political points goes. It’s long enough that New Yorkers may start to remember everything Giuluiani did *before *9/11.
Unless Giuliani makes a very firm stand against Bush and Iraq, I doubt he’d do well in any established Blue States.
Here’s a poll from mid-November, showing Hillary beating Rudy in NY by 53%-39%.
Both Hillary and Obama beat Rudy in NY state according to this poll.
So no, Rudy will not put NY in play.
Out of curiousity, has any candidate won the presidency without winning the state where they last held political office? That seems like it would be a sizable handicap (and one that probably is on Mit Romney’s mind as well).
Well, I think, depite what polls are saying as far out as this, that there’s still absolutely no chance in hell of Giulianai getting the nod. Lessee: pro-life? check. pro-gay rights? check. anti-gun? check. There’s no way on earth that he’ll get the nomination.
Yeah, he’s seen as getting his shit together on 9/11. Immediately previous, though, he was just another lame duck asshole who had stepped out on his wife and was looking at getting his ass packed fulla radium to fix that pesky prostate.
If Giuliani gets the nod, then I will eat my hat. And I doubt that even NY State would solidly line up behind him, let alone NYC. Anywhere else? I don’t see him making a difference at all.
Since that poll is hot off the presses, so to speak, and Hillary bests Rudy by 53-32 in this one (and Obama beats Rudy by 42-31), it looks like Rudy’s support in NY state is consistently weak.
IMHO, Rudy’s got nowhere to go but down. Most of his support nationally comes from people who only know the Hero of 9/11, TIME Man of the Year in 2001 view of him. He’s gonna be a hard sell once the country knows everything about him that New Yorkers already know.
That Rudy’s being taken seriously at this point just shows how unhappy Republicans are with their field. They’re souring on McCain, they’re trying on Romney and Rudy, and as they find out more about each one, they keep on being disappointed. Like the guy at RedState said, the GOP field sucks this year.
Problem for the Democrats is, their field sucks as well. I don’t see anyone running there that tacks very well toward the center. And the only reason the Democrats won in 2006 was by picking centrist candidates.
Are they going to throw that lesson away?
It sucks only if you’re part of the religious right. Which makes it better for the general election, because it may force the GOP to pick a more centrist candidate who can appeal to swing voters. And Giuliani is just that type of guy. He’ll still probably lose NY to the Dems, but what if he picks up CA? Giuliani is almost the perfect Schwartzenegger Republican and Arnold is hugely popular in CA right now.
There is no way Giuliani will get the nomination. The Republican Party is far too dominated by the religious right to allow a pro-choice Republican to get the nomination. Whatever crossover appeal he may have now will fade as we see him more for what he really is and less as the Patron Saint of 9/11.
Even if the ®s decide to throw their support behind someone who is more centrist, the RR will stay home, which cocks up everything at least as badly as if they run someone like Brownback. And while Schwarzenegger is popular in CA, said popularity only came about because he saw the writing on the wall and started working with the (D)s rather than antagonizing them.
It’s looking more and more like I might owe someone a hundred bucks. I don’t know. The polls (CNN) say he’s tracking well against conservatives, not so well against moderates. I’m guessing they havn’t heard the scandals yet.
Nope. The GOP has a very good get-out-the-vote machine, and it’s not like voters aren’t used to choosing between the lesser of two evils. The RR will have to choose between Giuliani and someone like Hillary. What do you think their choice will be?
Except that Giuliani will never make it that far. Ever. And human nature being what it can be, and considering that the RR has been brainwashed into believeing that they got their boy in the White House right now, I gotta wonder about the fits of pique if they were to look at the Republican nominee and see a philanderer with numerous gay friends and who is pro-life.
Like I said: Never gonna happen.
I guess we’ll find out in a few years…time will tell. I happen to disagree with you on several points…I don’t think the RR has as much pull as you seem to think they do for one thing…and I think that this election we might see the centrists come back to the fore again in any case.
Regardless, I don’t think the G man has any chance of putting NY into play for the 'Pubs. I think that if he DOES get the nomination (and depending on who he matches with for VP, and who he’s matched up against on the Dem side), he has a good shot at winning. Of course, its a bit early in the game to be speculating on all this IMHO. 
-XT
Hahahaha. A little bit of a reality check, if I may: the man was very unpopular throughout his second term until September 11 - and even after September 11, when he ‘volunteered’ to stay in office for a few extra months, the people said “hell no.” They loved him that much. He could win NY if the race is a total blowout, perhaps, but in a competitive election I’d say he has no chance. He’d make it closer than it usually is because he does share more values with New Yorkers than George W. Bush or Sam Brownback, but this state is strongly Democratic right now.
Just for clarification, I don’t think that the RR is some great monolithic beast that has that much pull. But the ®s have to appeal to everyone in their base in order for the get out the vote effort to succeed. And I think that the RR is a large enough chunk of their base that if they decide to sit on their hands in order to show the Republican party that they’re unhappy with the candidate, then things will be. . .different. . .shall we say.
And ordinarily I would agree with you. But Giuliani is egregiously a-Republican in almost every aspect of his being. So I feel comfortable hazarding my prognostication.
I mostly agree with you here except I have my doubts that any meaningful number of the RR (or maybe the Rabid RR :)) would sit out an election out of pique. After all, looked at it in terms of the 2000 election, Bush wasn’t exactly the optimal RR candidate. I think the RR has a history of voting for sub-optimal candidates (from their perspective) in the name of voting for the lesser of two weasles…and if you put up someone like Clinton or Obama they would vote for the G man easily and with (mostly) clear consious. IMHO anyway (and from the perspective of someone who is neither a Republican nor a card carrying RRR).
Sure…I feel comfortable speculating too (especially since it costs me nothing to do so ). I’m just aware that there are a LOT of things that can happen between now and even the primaries, and its a crap shoot…you never know how the public is going to react once the real campaigning starts, who is going to put their foot in their mouths, what directions events both in the country and the world (such as the economy, war in Iraq, natural or man made disasters, etc etc) and how they will shape the election, ect. Its more than possible that the candidates that eventually emerge will be complete unknowns…or that due to unforseen events the G man (or McCain) may rise to the top spot. I think Giuliani has a decent shot at gaining the nomination…much more so than, say, a Lieberman type candidate has to get through the Dems primary process. JMHO, but I think the 'Pubs could put up a true centrist a lot easier than the Dem’s could put up someone who runs counter to their own loony left wing…since they DO have a history of bolting for third party candidates if they become pissed off, or sitting on their hands.
-XT