I am going to lean on ‘yes’ based on the economy and the general hunger for change, but I think it would have been closer.
I’m postulating that over the summer, Hilary had slowly pulled ahead to the position Obama was in. I think he would have conceded gracefully, then done his best to get the two organizations to work together for her benefit, and I’m assuming that he would have been the VP nominee.
However, I don’t think McCain would have gone for nominating Palin. I think Huckabee may have gotten the nod - evangelical, but not nearly as out there, also letting him keep his nice big ‘experience’ drum.
The race would have been closer, but I think we would be looking at President Clinton right now