I don’t think she would have had as great a margin of victory.
Obama carried 9(?) states over what Kerry did in 04. I think that a major part of that strong margin was anti-republican as opposed to pro-democrat, which would have benefitted her. All she needed was a couple of those. I don’t think she would have lost any of Kerry’s states.
Obama’s organization was impressive and I don’t think her campaign would have been as effective in some ways, but in other respects, she’d have had the Clinton machine in full gear.
If she picked Obama for VP, my answer is a definite Yes, but even without him, I still say she’d beat McCain.
And if Hillary had gotten the nomination, we almost surely would never have seen Sarah Palin. So McCain would have benefitted from not having the opportunity to make that bad decision! But I still think Hillary would beat McCain/Lieberman, McCain/Romney, etc.
Close call, but I think her high negatives and comparitively poor campaign organization would have kept her out of the White House. There are still people (10-15% of the electorate, acc. to one survey I read) who see the Presidency as a male-only preserve. Obama won when she couldn’t have.
Interesting question. I wonder if McCain might still have picked Palin, just to avoid the “two old white guys running the country again” effect. The idea that he was going to be just 4 more years of Bush policies hit him hard, I think.
I think Hillary would have won… there are at least as many anti-black voters as anti-women voters. McCain might have still picked Palin to try and split the female vote. I would have voted for her over McCain any day. She just didn’t excite the base and the youth voters like Obama did. I don’t think either Barack or Hillary were very interested in the VP position… when you try out to be a quarterback being a 2nd string backup just isn’t the same thing…
Will we see Hillary run in 2012 if Obama decides to run for re-election?
She had a totally fucked up organization prone to backbiting among staffers, and a problem staying on message.
I’d like to see her try to unseat a sitting President, just for the pleasure of seeing her ass getting kicked in from about eight separate directions at once.
I think Palin was an effort to obtain the votes of rapid Clinton voters. It would have been much closer.
BTW, NPR claims that there was not a larger turn out of African American or Young voters than the previous election. It was College educated white folks making less than $100,000 a year who turned out in droves.
Among the hard core Republicans in my family and social groups there is often an extreme dislike of Hillary that is way beyond just her gender. I think she would have gotten much less crossover votes than Obama.
This – plus a lot of people who really, really hate her (her as a person, or as someone associated with ‘the Clintons,’ not her as a woman). I never saw the same kind of personal animus against Obama.
I think she could have won. The way the economy tanked hurt McCain more than anything else, and Hillary would have had as much advantage with that as Obama did.
Eh, I think a one-eyed monkey could have beaten McCain. The pubs did a great job of picking probably the worst candidate they could out of an already weak pool.
No. I think the important thing that people forget is that there was bound to be a significant “anti-Clinton” vote in addition to the “anti-woman as president” vote. Let’s not forget that the republicans were prepared to run against Hillary, whereas Obama represented something new. Hell I voted against Hillary in the primaries because I didn’t want to spend the general talking about blowjobs. Not that I don’t like blowjobs, I just don’t want to talk about other peoples blowjobs. Feel free to open a discussion about mine
Also, when people talk about the Clinton machine, let’s not forget that it wasn’t powerful enough to leverage all of Hillary’s strengths against Obama. If she couldn’t beat a same-party candidate, how on earth would she have stood up to everything the Republicans have been getting ready to throw at her for the past 4 years?
She would have lost. McCain would have won. It’s too horrible to think about when we have such happy thoughts to think right now. Can we change the subject?
I don’t think the Hilary that we saw at the end of the primaries could have won. As far as negative campaigning went, McCain just picked up where Hilary left off, and I think that the mudslinging seriously damaged the Clinton brand. So if she’d squeaked out a victory over Obama, she would have had to deal with irritated left-wingers and the right-wingers who, as one poster here put it, would crawl over molten glass to vote against her.
McCain wouldn’t have picked Palin if he was running against Hilary, so he would have had a stronger ticket. And Hilary just doesn’t have the magnetism or charisma of an Obama – her personality is quite polarizing.
I think the campaign would have devolved into two ill-tempered opponents slagging each other non-stop for three months and it’s anyone’s guess how it would have ended up. The failing economy may have boosted Hilary, but enough?
When I think of the initial debates prior to Iowa’s caucus with a dozen or more candidates - the only democratic candidates standing on the stage who might not have won were Gravel and Kuchinick.
What is more, when you consider the dozen or more Republican candidates standing on their stage - there didn’t appear to be a candidate with any more chance of winning than McCain.
Good question.
Now that they have had time to analyze the results, they are finding that the youth vote was nice, but not crucial to Obama’s overall win (other than in Indiana and N. Carolina) and other groups helped, but the main group that set Obama over the top was the African American voter who came out in droves nationwide.
Would Hillary have gotten those voters to stand in line for 3, 4 and 5 hours?
Plus, I think if McCain had not been so stupid as to choose that woefully unqualified bubblehead from Alaska, he might have had a stronger chance to win. With Hillary running, he most likely wouldn’t have chosen her and maybe picked someone qualified.
Thus I think Hillary might have pulled it off and won, but it would have been a longer night and more of a nail bitter.
Agreed. Folks have a deep-seated hatred of anything Clinton, especially Hillary. They don’t revile her 'cause she’s a woman, but because she’s Hillary Clinton.
She would never have won, unless she ran before Bill did.
Interesting comments. Odd, all those people with a visceral hatred of Clintons elected and re-elected one of them. I think Caligula’s ass could have won. But we will never know for sure.
The NY Times printed and interesting map yesterday. It shows county by county, using shades of blue and red, which counties had voted more Democratic in 2008 than in 2004 and which less. Except for understandable red in Arizona and Alaska, the red was mostly in Appalachia, from the SW corner of PA, through WV and western VA, NC, GA, KY, TN, AL. The rest of the red was in LA, MS, and the northern parts of TX. Not the coastal south for the most part. It makes me think that all the disdain for the mountaneers is fully justified. Bunch of ignorant bigots.
