No doubt both campaigns are literally looking towards November. Today and tommorow they will both, of course, help with the hurricane efforts. Today and tommorow they will both - quitely - draw a ‘November’ strategy.
First, there is the East Coast with states effected by Hurricane Sandy. Obama has the advantage of being President and assisting with the hurricane efforts in those states but he needs to be careful balancing assisting and campaigning. Romney won’t be able to balance the fine line between assisting and campaigning (in fact, he isn’t) – front page of The New York Times: two stories about the hurricane, a story about Libya, and - what’s this? - a story about Obama being attacked on auto bailout. :smack:
In November, Obama and Romney will likely campaign in Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. They already were campaigning in Ohio instead of campaigning in Virginia.
Finally, let’s not forget the states on the West Coast. There’s the advantage of no awkwardness as campaigning on the East Coast would be. Also, there’s the advantage of saying that America comes together, that the folks on the West Coast help the folks on the East Coast.
The larger issue is, obviously, the actual voting on Election Day.
Why would Obama (or Romney) campaign in Kentucky and Tennessee now? If he has to stay away from the East Coast, then aside from Ohio, surely his time is better spent in Colorado, Nevada, or Iowa, all states where he has slim leads he needs to protect. Or Florida, for that matter, which is eastern but unaffected by the storm, and which if he can flip back into his column effectively wins the election.
I saw the news conference this came from and it was quite extraordinary. It wasn’t backhanded, or couched in some other criticism. Just genuine candor about how well Obama handled prep for Sandy.
The cynic in my says that Christie knows Obama is going to win a second term (like most intelligent election watchers do) and is positioning himself as the bipartisan healer for 2016.
Bingo. I mean, I’m not saying the feelings aren’t genuine. But expressing them publicly is something that from a political standpoint makes sense if he’s considering a 2016 run, which frankly I can’t imagine he isn’t.
Because, assuming that they resume campaigning on November 1, the last thing that Obama wants to make it look like is that he he desperate for (electoral) votes. George W. Bush showed his confidence in 2000 by campaigning in California even though he probably knew it would not make a difference. And, this time, Obama can campaign in California (and Colorado, Nevada and Iowa) and emphasize that the West Coast helps the East Coast, that America comes together.
More on Christie, Romney tried to set up a photo-op w/ the Governor this morning to survey the hurricane damage together. Christie declined, and had this exchange on Fox News:
Just read that power might not be back on in Manhattan for a week. Is it possible to run an election with no power? How many people have to be without power before a delay is discussed?
I’m seeing estimates of three or four days for most places, and that’s lower Manhattan - not to say that doesn’t count, but it’s not the entirety of Manhattan. The power will be back on in most places before next Tuesday. I don’t know what’s going to happen in some rural areas, and I can imagine that’ll take longer to fix than highly populated areas in New York City.
Touche. I of course meant a modern election (with e-voting machines, etc).
I guess we’ll see how fast the cleanup goes - this is an interesting case where the better the government works to clean up (with the utility companies) the better it is for the incumbents.
Here’s a nightmare scenario- power still out in NYC on Tuesday, subway still shut down, city residents can’t get to polls, Romney wins by carrying (drum roll) New York!
More likely- urban areas get repowered before rural areas, urban voters cast ballots with few problems, Obama wins easily. Think Virginia- DC suburbs back online by weekend, western part of state takes a week. Obama wins Virginia easily.
