I’m just interested to hear people’s opinions on this.
It seems to me that Obama might need to inject something new into his reelection campaign. Replacing boring, old Joe Biden (while coming up with some convenient excuse for him needing to retire or to be moved to some other key position) with someone more interesting might just be “the ticket.”
So what do you think the chances are? If you think it’s possible/likely, who do you think it should be?
Hillary? (Would that line her up better to run in 2016, or is she better off staying put?)
I know around a year ago Biden said that Obama had already asked him to stay on as his veep for 2012, but things have changed since then and may continue to change to the point where that may have to be seriously reconsidered.
I’m not a Biden fan by any means but replacing him would be seen as an admission of weakness, which would have negative implications for the campaign. Unless Biden had a genuine reason for not continuing such as a serious health issue, replacing him would hurt more than help.
I say keep him on. Remember Quale? Everyone had a strong opinion about him but Bush didn’t win because of him and he didn’t lose because of him. Just my own feeling but I think VERY few people even consider who the Vice President is. I live in Illinois and we have the most worthless job in the world… Lieutenant Governor. I bet 99 out of a hundred people in this state can’t name him or her.
I think he serves a useful function – lightning rod and crash test dummy. He can float trial balloons and take the heat while the President observes the reaction. I doubt he has aspirations to go for the Presidential nomination himself, so he’s not trying to preserve an image. Other likely contenders to replace him would probably be looking to the next election year and would be covering their own behinds more than Obama’s. I think he should and will stay on the ticket.
If I were Obama and I was thinking about changing my VP, it wouldn’t be (directly) because of the election, it would be to put someone who is a pit-bull, a la Cheney, into the position. The Republicans claim to fear Obama and his “socialist agenda”, but in reality they don’t seem to fear him at all. I’d want Tony Soprano as my VP.
Last vice-president to be replaced was Henry Wallace in 1944. A group of party leaders staged what was virtually a coup to oust Wallace and Roosevelt, in one of the few acts that showed he knew he was dying, let them, presumably because he didn’t want Wallace to succeed him.
It will take a crisis of that magnitude for it to ever happen again.
Not quite true, Exapno, there was also Spiro Agnew. But that really just strengthens the case, since it shows just how big a problem there has to be for it to happen.
And just how gaffe-prone is Biden, anyway? I haven’t seen a single news story about him since before the 2008 election. Everyone always talks (in the abstract) about his gaffes, but it looks to me like he mostly just keeps his mouth shut. And there are a lot worse things that a veep can do than keeping quiet.
Of course not. If GWB can get re-elected with Cheney on the ticket, then there is zero strategic advantage to replacing Biden (who, while sometimes mocked, has nowhere near the negative polling that Cheney had).
Nope, he won’t replace him because that will send a message that he doesn’t have confidince in his staff. He will keep him on and they both will go down on the election ship.
It won’t matter. The problem is not the VP portion of the ticket. Though only change I can think of that might be meaningful is Hillary. Though I doubt she would accept it. I think she’d rather run sans Obama baggage in 2016.
So it sounds like it’s unanimous that such a move would be extremely unlikely. But I dunno, seeing as how Biden has seemingly been intentionally out of the public eye, that will necessarily have to change when the campaign trail gets into full swing. Obama’s campaign team has to be dreading putting Biden out there, where a gaffe or two could be damaging.
If an appropriately attractive and qualified running mate were to be willing and available, it seems like it would be a very tempting way to revitalize the reelection campaign. Perhaps someone that would appeal more to the progressive base to assure a higher voter turnout.
I tend to agree it’s probably unlikely, but I don’t know if it’s quite as unthinkable as most of you feel it is. Meh, it’s fun to speculate about it, anyway.
Agnew wasn’t around to be replaced since he had resigned a full three years earlier. Ford would be a better nitpick, since Nelson Rockefeller retired from politics rather than running again. There’s controversy over whether he had planned to be an interim figure or got dumped in a revolt by the right, analogous to Wallace.
There have been vice presidents who died in office, but they don’t count as being replaced either.
Replaced has one possible meaning in this thread and Agnew doesn’t meet it.
They didn’t dread him last time, and nothing has changed since then.
And Exapno, I was considering “replaced” a bit more broadly-- I don’t see a particularly big difference between replacing the veep in the middle of a term and replacing him at an election. But I think we agree on the underlying point.
I don’t know why replacing the VP comes up every election cycle. People speculated on Cheney, Gore, and Quale too. Replacing your VP after a term isn’t something that’s going to happen. The president picks them as the first important decision of their presidential importance, giving up on their VP choice would indicate they make poor decisions or can’t stand by their people.
Biden left a good secure seat for the job and if I were him and Obama tried to dump me I’d make dam sure the ship sank. For the good of the party is bullshit, someone who would put one of the parties top politicians in the unemployment line isn’t doing it for the good of the party they are fucking it over for personal gain.
yes, he should. My opinion of Obama shrunk immensely when he was bulldozed into selecting Joe for his VP. The only selection that compares is Bush I’s selection of Quayle.
But he won’t, unless a major scandal gets to Biden.
As for who it would be if Biden were gone? Fine question. I guess the qualifications would have to be a white male, who’s a conservative democrat. Barney Frank isn’t going to help Obama’s re-election.