I am seeing more and more discussion of the potential in 2012 for putting Hillary Clinton in the number two spot with Obama and moving Joe Biden to Secretary of State. The argument seems to be that Clinton would bring all of the “Hillary Democrats” back onboard and that Joe would not sufficiently energize the base. (One of the reasons cited for Bush 41’s failure was keeping Quail.) Supposedly having headed up the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, Joe would be excellent in the position.
The only problem is that lots of VP’s since WWII have subsequently found their way into the Oval Office and Joe might be thinking about that himself. I mean, he’s already run, what, twice on his own.
I think it makes good political sense. But would Joe? Or Obama? (I think Hillary doesn’t serve another term as SecDef in any case.)
:smack: Not SecDef. Thinking too slowly, typing too fast.
If you read these stories you’ll see the idea comes from Bob Woodward. It’s a poorly supported claim and I think he’s just using it to get more publicity for his new book. His exact words were “Some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers see it as a real possibility in 2012.”
There’s a lot of weasel wording in there. Some of her advisers think it’s possible. It’s not going to happen. And Obama’s people have already come out to say it’s absolutely not going to happen.
The only way Biden isn’t the VP nominee in 2012 is if he retires from politics. And the only way he’ll do that is if forced to by his health, or if there’s some major scandal.
Biden isn’t going to be running for president in 2016, sure. And the Vice Presidency is a good position to launch your presidential campaign. Except it isn’t Obama’s job to pick the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee in 2012.
I can imagine Hillary getting the Veep job if and only if Biden has some major health crisis. No other formula comes to mind that wouldn’t create more problems.
I have always thought it would be a good idea for Obama to pick a new VP candidate in 2012. In 2008 he needed an experienced hand to offer assurance since he himself was so new. 4 years later that isn’t an issue. But I don’t think Hillary would be a great VP pick either. Ideally Obama would like a new face; perhaps an exciting young governor who can appeal to independents. And of course if the ticket wins the new VP would be in an excellent position to win in 2016. Neither Biden nor Hillary is likely to run in 2016 so from that perspective it’s a bit of a waste having them run for VP. Of course all this was quite true of Cheney in 2004 as well. Bush didn’t need him nearly as much as in 2000 and he was probably a liability by 2004. Bush stuck with him anyway and I suspect Obama will do the same with Biden.
Cheney was a liability politically by that time, for sure. He was never popular and was very unpopular for most of his term. But if the President feels he works well with the VP, wouldn’t you want him to stick with the same VP even if someone else might bring in more votes? A good VP is not just there to balance the ticket.
Of course we’ll know more about the political landscape in a month, but if the Republican wave turns into a tsunami I can see two years of declining numbers for Obama, at which point maybe Biden takes one for the team with one of those “I’ve decided I want to spend more time with my family” speeches.
While I don’t think John Boehner is measuring the drapes in Nancy Pelosi’s office just yet, the Republicans are going to pick up at least 30 seats in the house and maybe 60 (I’ve seen estimates as high as 85 but that’s probably a stretch.) If the Hill is dysfunctional now, it’s going to catatonic in ’12. Hillary’s numbers are good; I can see her stepping in and picking up the slack. And then running in ’16.
Set aside the possibility of Hillary Clinton as Vice Prez-Joe Biden as Secretary Of State?!?
That ain’t a minor position folks, and he isn’t up to the task in my humble opinion.
Yeah, you’re right. He’s been in the Senate 30 years, run for president a few times, and now he’s in the White House every day and be the famous “last voice in the room.” It must suck for him because he gets made fun of for putting his foot in his mouth sometimes.
There is no “the party.” If Obama wanted him out and he didn’t want to go, it would get ugly. If Obama wants him to stay, there’s nobody to make either of them change their minds.
Leaving aside everything else, why in the world would Hilary Clinton want this to happen? Her major political liability is that she’s seen as power hungry and ruthless; this would only make things worse.
It seems someone is floating the idea of replacing Joe Biden with Hillary Clinton on the 2012 Democratic presidential slate. According to this Washington Post story, Bob Woodward is the most recent to report on the idea. The idea being that it would energize the Democratic base.
My first though was, “What a terrible idea”. IMO Hillary would energize the opposition and make some supporters into the opposition, far more than she would rally support.
Boyo Jim started a thread on this topic in the U.S. Elections Forum, but I’ve merged it with the thread in Great Debates. It’s a better fit in GD since it doesn’t really relate to the current elections.
If Biden leaves for any reason short of a major health crisis, it’ll be perceived as a major show of weakness on Obama’s part, and Obama, being one of the most skilled politicians in the country, is far too savvy to show weakness like that. Heck, even a major health crisis might still look weak: If it happened, you can be sure that pundits would be saying “Obama should have had the sense to choose a young, healthy running mate, like McCain did”. “Resigning to spend more time with family” has no chance at all of working, since everyone knows exactly what that always means, anyway.
If Obama wants a hand-picked successor after his (likely) eight years in office, he’ll do it the old-fashioned way, by endorsing someone in the 2016 primaries.
Biden was chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee. He spent pretty much his whole Senate career on that committee. He didn’t give it up for a demotion. And Garner’s words are outdated. (He also really said “A bucket of warm piss.”)