OK, I can’t be the first person to consider this scenario. Obama picks Biden to win in 2008. Biden steps down in 2012 and Hillary runs as Obama’s VP in 2012. This gives her one last shot in 2016 for president.
Anyone think this scenario is likely? Obama would be a known quantity in 2012, so having Hillary as the running mate wouldn’t be as big of a drawback Biden can retire to the talk show and lecture circuit
Hillary doesn’t need to be the VP to run for president. She has enough exposure.
How would she fare against a sitting Vice President in the primaries though?
And why would Biden step down, if he ultimately wants to be President?
Hillary Clinton will be 69 years old on election day in 2016; hypothetically, she would, assuming McCain does not win this year, be the second oldest person to ever assume the Presidency, edged out by Reagan by (IIRC) about nine months. All the questions about John McCain’s age will be just as (well, nearly) relevant to Clinton in 2016.
Frankly, by 2016 she’ll be way past her best-before date as an interesting and viable candidate, and I’m not sure she’ll be up for it anyway.
A fantasy of mine has Obama telling Biden secretly, “I’m not running in 2012, and you have my support for the nomination. I’ll step down in the summer of '12, when no else has the time to raise funds, and then I’ll be eligible for another term at some point in the future. This way I can operate wth no thought of re-election, strike the hardest bargains I can, political consequences be damned, and you can disavow whichever ones hurt you in the 2012 campiagn–break with me, denounce me, do whatever you need to do, but get elected. If there ever comes a time in the next six or seven election cycles where I look good again, maybe as soon as 2016, I’ll be obviously prepared to step in from Day One, and I’ll get to pick my spot.”
I think this is a strategy that’s never been done, obviously (I don’t think Cleveland was planning two non-consecutive terms–he ran and lost his first re-election bid) but has many virtues.
Joe Biden is turning 68 soon. I highly doubt that he is considering a run at 76. He may even feel that he’s had enough of the gig by 72.
The VP spot is great position to campaign off of.
HRC came with too much baggage (Bill not the least of which) for Obama to have in a first term (and during a first run) but by a second term he could probably handle it.
It is not a crazy scenario. I would add that it would likely be contingent upon Hillary delivering as a useful ally in the Senate during term one.
And having Biden as a VP during the first term allows Biden to use his years of experience to muscle through the health care plan with Hillary’s support.
There’s nothing in it for Obama or Biden, so no. Obama could’ve had Clinton for VP if he wanted her, and I think it’s obvious he didn’t. Assuming Biden is healthy I see no reason he’d want to retire. Politicians generally try to stay in power as long as they can.
I suppose one possible if unlikely scenario is if Obama is in serious danger of losing the 2012 election and Hillary is thinking of launching a primary challenge and is ready to settle for a VP slot instead. Otherwise I just don’t see anything in it for Obama.
I think there is a reasonable possibility of Biden being replaced in 2012 by someone who is a plausible contender for 2016: probably some youngish governor who would benefit hugely from 4 years as VP. I wonder if there is an agreement between Obama and Biden about it. Certainly this would be in the interests of the Democratic party.
Sure, there is something in it for Biden. Money, money, money. He can go out on the speaking circuit and bring in some serious cash. Biden isn’t wealthy. A respected VP and former Senator can make a nice chunk of change. That’s not including the book deal that would surely come.
If he wanted money he could be on the lecture or lobby circuit already. He seems to be comfortable financially, and with his Senate pension he’s unlikely to ever be in serious need. I don’t know if politics just isn’t interesting enough for people, or what, but despite his age it’s unlikely Biden is planning to quit. If he gets elected this year, he’ll be running for VP in 2012.
What’s in it for Obama?
[ol]
[li]It could be the carrot to get her to work more in concert with him during term one.[/li][li]He really is someone who wants to heal any divisiveness. Putting her on the ticket next time helps heal any remaining ill will between sections of the party. But at such a time during which he is clearly giving it from a position of strength. And at a time during which his own administration will be established enough to stand up to the distractions of the Clintons’ shadows.[/li][li]The possibility exists that the GOP candidate next time might be stronger than McCain. Clinton could be a powerful ally in such a fight.[/li][li]Hillary Clinton came into politics as an overt partner to Bill and used his turn as the launch for her political career. Michelle Obama has not been so overt a political partner and has expressed no personal ambition. Yet I must admit that I suspect she has some ambitions of her own and I could see her some day running for office of some sort. Maybe even following Hillary’s playbook but having more years to stretch it out. It doesn’t hurt to make this freindship solid if such is the case.[/li][li]He may actually believe that a Hillary presidency would be good for the party and more so for the country.[/li][/ol]
If Obama wins, he’s likely to be working with substantial Democratic majorities. Clinton’s help might be valuable in an evenly-split Congress - although even then, I don’t think she’d be the best choice of point person - but this doesn’t look a scenario where it’s going to come down to the very last vote. It wouldn’t be necessary to offer her the VP spot just to get her vote on a few bills, and in any case, that offer probably isn’t worth anything to her because of her age and the fact that it’s very unlikely Biden will run in 2016.
Why do people persist in thinking that Hillary Clinton would accept a VP slot even if offered to her? Hillary is nobody’s bitch; she’s spent her adult life as a kingmaker, molding Bill Clinton from a disorganized, unfocused, satyriasic, charmingly effacing raconteur into a viable Chief Executive, and she now regards the Presidency as her prize to have. For her, a VP seat wouldn’t just be a warm bucket of piss; it would be Al Gore’s drunken sickup, coagulated from last night’s drinking session with Chinese nationals who he just mistook for being slightly obsessive Star Wars fans. Hillary isn’t accepting anyone’s offer to be VP, and certainly not from Barack Obama, should be be so foolish to offer it to her.
Stranger
Personally, I thought the stories that she sought the spot after losing the nomination were credible.
I don’t buy this theory that she is in any way responsible for the rise of Bill Clinton. So if she’s a kingmaker, can you name one king she’s made?
You can believe what you like, but it’s pretty clear to me that Hillary has served as Bill Clinton’s minder, chief adviser, and external brain pack since his first days as governor of Arkansas; without her counsel and direction Bill Clinton would be a moderately successful and well-liked attorney or at most a popular lobbyist. Hillary Clinton is a smart cookie who unfortunately (for her) comes off as being too strident to be accepted by much more than the vocal middle-aged female base, and in on an Obama ticket her divisiveness and previous critical statements would come to haunt both of them in the same way that McCain succeeds in contradicting himself as evidenced by numerous clips on The Daily Show.
Stranger
Bill Richardson being the glaring, giant, obvious candidate for this. I could see it.
I don’t mean to dismiss her talents, which I think are considerable. I’m sure she has always advised him and has probably helped to bring him focus many times. There’s no way to know any of this for sure, but I’m inclined to think you’re giving her far too much credit.