Mods, I think GD is the proper place for this thread, but apologies if it isn’t.
Something that’s been floating in my head for a little while and it thought I’d throw it out to see what everybody thinks.
I’m wondering if Obama will pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate in 2012, and here’s my reasoning.
After Obama won the nomination I heard that he couldn’t ask Clinton to be his VP because it would make him look week. So instead she gets a job as a high ranking cabinet member. Enter 2012. She still has high hopes but knows that running for President is probably out of the question, but the Vice Presidency is in her grasp. Enough time has passed that Obama won’t look week if he asks her, and he gets to unload the gaff machine. Granted, Biden hasn’t hasn’t made an gaffs lately, but then again, I haven’t heard ANYTHING from him lately. Oh, and an Obama/Clinton ticket could make history with the first woman VP.
Well, that’s just an idea floating around in my head, what do the rest of you think?
Before you talk about what Clinton would or wouldn’t bring to the ticket you have to address Biden. He says some dumb crap from time to time but from the standpoint of doing his job, that’s not important. What’s important is how well he does what Obama needs him to do and how well they work together.
Biden is not going to step aside unless he’s physically incapable of remaining vice president. This is the capstone of his career and he’s not going to give it up. He seems to have a good working relationship with Obama and I don’t think Obama would break that up - and certainly not because Biden sticks his foot in his mouth at times. Changing VPs would make the White House look desperate ahead of the election. Despite Clinton’s positive, some of her negatives are still there, and if re-elected Obama would then need to learn to work with a new VP and a new Secretary of State. That’s a lot of complications for something that I don’t think brings much political advantage.
I guess I see Biden not being too upset about giving up the VP slot, but I have nothing to base that on, so I’m probably wrong.
And out of curiosity, since I only know about what Biden is doing from the news, what does he do for Obama? You hardly hear about VPs in the news and I only hear about Biden when he says something stupid or reveals a secret.
And as for how Clinton’s doing, I really don’t have much of an opinion one way or another. And I’ve heard before how she’s a polarizing figure, but hell, she couldn’t get more hate than Obama gets, so he’d have nothing to lose if he picked her. And since he’d have worked with her for four years having her move to the VP position wouldn’t present any challenges. So that would only leave picking a new Secretary of State.
Yeah, probably won’t happen, but I’m not ruling it out.
When she lost in 08 I heard talk that she wouldn’t run again because of her age. Now I’ve seen one, possibly two people here mention the possibility of her running in 2012, and you’re bringing up 2016.
I think it would be too risky for her to run in 2012 and I guess it would be possible for her to run in 2016. Even though I wouldn’t vote for her because our politics are different I wouldn’t hold her age against her. I wonder how many would though.
Clinton would only be 69 in 2016. Younger than Reagan, younger than Cheney. Obama is not so foolish as to not try and ensure a Democrat successor; Clinton is not so foolish as to run against Obama in 2012.
Ever since Presidential candidates started picking their own running mates instead of leaving it to the conventions, i.e. since FDR, it would be politically suicidal for any of them to drop their choices later. That would mean admitting to bad judgment on their most critical decision. And the VP just can’t become enough of a liability to overcome that, without doing something so grave that he has to resign beforehand.
Even if Obama decides he can’t stand Biden anymore, he’ll still be on the 2012 ticket.
Honestly, I think you underestimate the level of vitriol “the Right” can manufacture. I think if Clinton had been nominated/elected in 2008, the political climate would have been more toxic by an order of magnitude. However, at this point, I think at least some of the Clinton-derangement has abated (and Obama-derangement has been amplified), so I pretty much agree with you about 2012.
Since you bring up ages, Biden will be 74 in 2016. Assuming Biden is the VP on the 2012 ticket and that VP is the most likely presidential candidate in 2016, Biden’s age at that point will be a factor in my voting decision. Not necessarily an overriding (or even very large) factor, but a factor nonetheless.
Again, assuming that the 2012 VP candidate would be the most likely 2016 presidential candidate, I’d like to see someone else in the VP slot. This far out, I don’t think that Biden would be the strongest candidate that the Dems can muster and I’d like to see some longer term strategic politicking.
I can see it. It’s pretty much a done deal that Clinton won’t be Sec State in a second term, so she’ll be looking for something. Biden probably isn’t going to run in 2016, so it makes a lot of sense.
Except… we went thru this with Bush, too. There were lots more reasons for Bush to chuck Cheney and pick someone else his 2nd term (even if after the election), but that never happened. Maybe there is something useful about continuity. And Clinton has enough national recognition that she doesn’t need to launch a campaign from the VP slot.
Clinton doesn’t want to be runner up. She said that. The thing is the economy will decide the 2012 election. It’s gonna have to get better a LOT better by then. Mr Obama really won because of the economy. People didn’t vote for him as much as against the Republicans.
If any 2nd prize will come to Hillary that would be a Supreme Court nomination. That was floated around a few times before Mr Obama asked her to be Sec of State.
Republicans have a bit of an advantage as there is no one front runner now. Remember Mr Obama was unknown to most till Oprah fell in love with him.
So no Republican can peak. The only famous Republican is Sarah Palin who won’t run. She’s making far too much money as a speaker and seriously she helps the Republicans far more by being so accessable and personable. Yeah you may not like her, I don’t, but you gotta admit, wherever she goes she brings in the crowds which translate to donations of money, and that helps win elections.
What makes you say that? I can’t see her voluntarily stepping down from such a high position unless it’s for at least the vice presidency (in which case the argument is circular), and I haven’t heard of any reason why Obama would be unsatisfied enough with her work to want to replace her.
EDIT: Already answered. Is it really the norm for the SoS to switch even if the President gets re-elected?
I didn’t realize Hillary would be stepping down. For someone as ambitious as she is, I wonder if this is the end of her political career, or if she’ll make a run for office one last time. And if so, in 2012 or 2016.
I can’t see Biden being sacked but I could se him deciding to leave after one term. VP is a pretty thankless job and unless you have ambitions of becoming President why do it? He’ll be 70 by then, a reasonable age to say that you’ve done enough for your country.
Assuming that Biden retires, for his own reasons, who would Obama choose? Clinton makes sense.
In the interview where she said she wouldn’t do 8 years as Sec State, she also said she wanted to return to private life afterwards. She said she wouldn’t run for prez, and might consider teaching.
I can’t see her being nominated to the SCOTUS, especially not after Kagan. One non-judge is one thing, but two? I don’t think Obama would risk that, and the Republicans would fight tooth and nail to keep her out of a lifetime appointment.