Countdown to war with Venezuela

The BBQ Pit
161

I think $15 million had been offered. There is a decent chance Maduro was cashiered by a subordinate.

I think Trump should have got permission from Congress. That said, I am friendly with a young and educated Venezuelan man - who is ecstatic at this development, calling it “one of the best days of his life”.

He is not a fan of Trump in general. His view was nine million people left Venezuela since they were starving and persecuted. He felt 90% of Venezuelans might support the US action removing Maduro, and that oil corruption ruined a country wealthy “when they just had coffee and chocolate”.

He felt the Venezuelan army would remain loyal to the government for now. He said soldiers were often forced to commit war crimes so superior officers could document their “loyalty” and have something compromising to assure it. And he was less concerned Trump did not contact the opposition, saying most were out of the country and without military support or boots on the ground, Trump involving them at this stage would be unhelpful.

I am not in a position to judge these matters, and opinions will differ, especially in other countries in The Americas. But many Venezuelans are celebrating, despite many concerns and much uncertainty.

162

From The Economist (limited gift link)

Just hours after America captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, in a nighttime raid on January 3rd, President Donald Trump clarified his motivation. “The oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time,” he said. “We are going to have our very large United States oil companies…spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure…and start making money for the country.” The declaration had the sweet taste of revenge. Eighteen years ago, under Hugo Chávez, Venezuela nationalized assets belonging to American and other Western companies….

…But the president wants more than retribution. Decades of underinvestment and mismanagement have caused Venezuela’s oil production to fall by two-thirds since the late 2000s, to around 1m barrels a day (b/d). Restoring idle capacity, the thinking goes, would make Venezuela rich while lining American pockets. Better still, Venezuela sits on some 300bn barrels of oil—a fifth of the world’s reserves—implying production might rise further still, and for a while. The heavy, sour crude that the country harbours is precisely the type of which American refineries are chronically short, at a time when America’s relations with Canada, a supplier of the stuff, are strained.

What, then, is not to like about Mr Trump’s lunge for petroleum? Quite a lot, it turns out. In the immediate term, Venezuela’s crude output is more likely to fall than rebound. In December America declared a blockade on Venezuelan shipments ferried by blacklisted tankers; it then seized one of them. Exports have since cratered …Venezuela is also short of naphtha—a dilutant it needs to make its super-gloopy crude transportable—which is no longer coming through from Russia. Unless the blockade is lifted… Venezuela’s production will have to be curtailed further, to perhaps less than 700,000 b/d.

Output might recover in a few months if there is a smooth political transition and American sanctions on Venezuela, blockade included, are lifted (a big “if”). Basic maintenance and repairs might push the country’s crude output to 1.2m b/d by the end of 2026, estimates Kpler, a data firm…. To pump more, Venezuela would need to overcome three problems: a dire need for funds, a shortage of labour and a saturated global market.

Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimates that $110bn in capital expenditure on exploration and production alone would be required to bring the country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago—twice the amount America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/01/04/donald-trumps-great-venezuelan-oil-gamble?giftId=Yzc4NmFkYjYtMDhhOC00YjgxLWFjNjgtYzk5YTdlY2M2YWU0&utm_campaign=gifted_article

163

His constituency is his constituency… but that whole “What would Bernie and Mable think in Nassau or Suffolk county ( aka Dong Flies Land ) “ is bullshit.

Granted, he’s better than Kyrsten Synema or John Fetterman… but still…

164

Yeah, that’s an extremely low bar. That bar is buried in the dirt. But you’re not wrong.

165

The Guardian reports that Trump made the decision to kidnap Maduro because he made fun of the jerking-off-two-invisible-dicks dance.

As the Trump administration ratcheted up the pressure, the government in Caracas at times seemed bewildered. Maduro repeatedly said Venezuela did not want war with the US, at one point dancing in front of Venezuelan students to the lyrics “no war, yes peace” and mimicking Trump’s double-fist pumping dance move.

Trump was reportedly not amused, and the dancing is said to have contributed to the decision to remove him from power.

166

Wow. Two people who are FB friends shared it. I’ve just seen it shared again (as a reel) by someone I don’t know.

ETA: One of my FB friends shared it from someone whom I don’t know who shared it.

167

And I’ve just seen it shared by a Canadian page. Ironically, I can’t comment on it without admin approval. :laughing:

168

Seen also here:

169

postimg.cc links won’t open for me (Safari). :frowning: I was able to open it in Firefox. Canadians Agains Trump is the FB page that I couldn’t comment on.

Anyway, thanks to @jsc1953 for the text and idea! :slight_smile:

170

It’s getting plenty of love in my Facebook.

171

Another interesting question is what this means for China. Not so much regarding Taiwan, but about their relationships in South America.

Excerpt: The Economist
(Limited gift link below)

The more interesting [than Taiwan] question is what Mr Maduro’s capture means for China’s standing with its partners around the world. Venezuela has been the biggest recipient of official Chinese loans and grants in South America, receiving about $106bn between 2000 and 2023, according to AidData, a research centre at the College of William and Mary in Virginia. Much of that flowed to Venezuelan infrastructure projects, especially for energy production. In recent years China has shifted its focus to restructuring debt because of Venezuela’s economic troubles. And China has become indispensable as one of the few countries defying American sanctions. Although China gets only about 5% of its oil imports from Venezuela, that is enough to account for a whopping 80% of international demand for Venezuelan crude.

These economic linkages have brought the two countries together politically. Sticking up for Venezuela has been a way for China to advocate for its vision of “multipolarity”—shorthand for a world in which America is less dominant and China more so. In 2023 China upgraded its relationship with Venezuela to an “all-weather” partnership, a diplomatic designation signalling closeness that it assigns to just a handful of countries. And Venezuela has been the biggest buyer of Chinese weapons in South America, including radars that appear to have offered little help to Mr Maduro.

Yet China’s strategic support turns out, in the final analysis, to have been largely rhetorical. This was a lesson that Iran already learned when American jets bombed its nuclear facilities last June, eliciting criticism from China but not much else. Over the past few months China has regularly condemned America’s military deployment near Venezuela. In the wake of the raid on Caracas, China denounced America for violating Venezuelan sovereignty. But aside from strong words, what did it do for Mr Maduro at his time of need? China has developed, yet is wary about exporting, advanced weapons systems that could provide a stronger deterrent against American attacks. China’s all-weather partners may start to ask if it really is willing to protect them against fierce storms—or just to be their chum when the sun is shining.

The snatching of Mr Maduro is also a reality check for China’s self-image as a true global player. The “Trump corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, featured in America’s new national security strategy in December, vowed to deny “non-hemispheric competitors” the ability to position military forces or control strategic assets in the western hemisphere. The target was clear: China. Days later, China issued its first policy paper on Latin America for nearly a decade, casting the region as integral to the global order Mr Xi hopes to shape.

https://www.economist.com/china/2026/01/05/americas-raid-on-venezuela-reveals-the-limits-of-chinas-reach?giftId=ZDYzMjJlNmItMzQ5NS00Y2QyLTg2MjEtMzg2NjllNzQyYWI2&utm_campaign=gifted_article

172

Some say it’s to distract from the Trumpstein files, but isn’t trump hoping for an aversion to impeachment during an ongoing war? Switching horses in the middle of the stream and all that.

173

Epstein.
The recent release of some of Jack Smith’s testimony.
The anniversary of January 6th.

One thing about Trump: he never runs out of horrible things that he’s done, and which inevitably catch up to him, requiring that he do additional horrible things in an effort to distract the electorate. It’s the evil version of a self-licking ice cream cone.

174

So well said.

175

Offhandedly, I wonder if Trump’s big nothingburger prime-time mystery press conference 3 weeks ago was intended to be an announcement of Maduro’s capture. Maybe the op was planned for that night and got pushed, as commonly happens.

176

It worked. I just saw it in my FB feed.

177

I suspect this is true – good call. The New York Times did report that there was unusually cloudy and rainy weather for this time of year, during the days (maybe week) before the military operation.

My only hesitation is that the CIA asset within Maduro’s camp probably couldn’t be sure of Maduro’s location more than a couple days ahead of time, at most. But still, I think your idea is more likely than not.

178

So the WH team may learn that surprise announcements have to wait until the surprise has been sprung.

…

Meanwhile internationally, of all people Marine Le Pen issued a statement rejecting that you go in and knock down the leadership of other countries just ‘cause you can and calling this a “mortal peril in our time”.

But there is one fundamental reason to oppose the regime change that the United States has just brought about in Venezuela. The sovereignty of states is never negotiable, regardless of their size, their power, or their continent. It is inviolable and sacred.

To renounce this principle today for Venezuela, for any state, would be to accept our own enslavement tomorrow.

179

Doesn’t surprise me.

  1. If she were to win leadership of France, it would be a “moral peril”…and she wouldn’t want to be replaced by the action of an external force.
  2. She’s still keeping to “France first” — like MAGA, supposedly wary of foreign entanglements. (Would she eventually abandon this dictum, after being in power for a while, as Trump did? Probably, though the weaponry available to her would be rather lesser. France does have nuclear weapons, true…)
180

Everyone needs to watch the movie “Canadian bacon” (or rewatch if you saw it years ago).