I heard this theory, I think it was here actually, around six months ago, that Trump may be a plant by the Clintons in order to hamstring the Republican campaign. At the time it sounded very plausible to me, but then as it went on (and on, and on) it became less likely.
Now the website Cracked has put it forward as a plausible conspiracy theory. What say you all? Why is it a ridiculous notion?
It’s ridiculous because it’s more theory than you need to explain what you observe.
If two theories explain observations equally well and one is simpler, the simpler one is most likely correct. That’s Occam’s Razor. It’s a fundamental heuristic which scientists use and conspiracy theorists gawk at in utter incomprehension and/or denounce as a Zionist Plot.
Trump is, to all appearances, a glory-hound who says stupid shit.
The simple theory is that he’s a glory hound who says stupid shit who’s running as a Republican because they’re closer to his positions on Mexicans and the economy than the Democrats are. This is simpler, in part, because it explains his statements: He said all that crap about Mexicans and walls and so on because he’s dumb enough to believe them, and he doesn’t have much of a barrier between his brain and his mouth. He’s a non-actor who’s behaving like he is not an actor.
The complex theory is that there’s a wheels-within-wheels plot where Trump is smart, compliant, and a great actor. This theory is more complex because, again, it requires a heretofore unknown acting ability on Trump’s part for him to spout what he said convincingly and to not accidentally let anything slip. If your theory requires a non-actor to be a wonderful actor, it isn’t the best theory.
The idea that the simple theory is better is, apparently, alien to some people’s worldview. That doesn’t change the fact it’s better, it just makes them bad at picking theories.
There are always people who want to be seen as knowing things. Their problem is that they don’t know shit. Therefore, they come up with complex plots they can expound upon at infinite length, because once you abandon Occam’s Razor the only limit is the amount of green ink you possess.
Sometimes one has to look deeper.
Yes, Trump and the Clintons are old friends; yes, Donald and Hillary share most of the same policies: Make America Great Again, Build a Wall with Mexico, LGBTF friendly, Get tough on Feral Crime, Help the Middle Class, Pro-Millionare etc. etc., despite his being less prone to using military force and coercion of the rest of the world to achieve such goals; yes, they both detest the GOP, although he more than her.
However, he has been more competent at making a bid for the presidency, since in one year he has got further than she did over a 50-year arc — assuming she first planned it at the age of 18 —but she has never been particularly successful her in political ventures.
[ America is turning into a gerontocracy, as much as the latter Soviet Union — a new instance of the creeping bolshevism begun under Reagan and the radical right — Trump is 70, Hillary 68, Bubba 69, Sanders 74, the youngest candidate was 44, which is not exactly youth. Obama hinted at this recently with his disdainful jabs at Hillary:
*Before that rather staged exit, Obama also made fun of Clinton in contrast to rival Bernie Sanders’ “Feel The Bern” slogan with what he said should be hers – “Trudge Up The Hill.”
“You got to admit though,” the incumbent added after listing a series of Clinton’s attributes, “Hillary trying to appeal to young voters is a little bit like your relative who just signed up for Facebook.” He followed that with the line “did you get my poke” and a rather poor impersonation of “Aunt Hillary” after giving Sanders, who stood up to big applause, some kinder words – not that Obama obviously thinks the Vermont Senator is following him to the White House*. ]
However suppose instead the Clintons were an invention of Trump back in the '90s !
He financed them, supplied them with funds and tame scandals, to set them up as dummy opponents in 2016; and he ran them simply to set them up for the fall. Hillary can happily withdraw voluntarily, reviled by the right, but able to hand over her proposals to a surer hand. He can compensate them handsomely for their campaign, since he is even richer than they, which is saying something, and then he can concentrate on repairing the damage caused by the right & libertarian tendencies.
America has chosen wisely in handing over her polity to multi-millionaires.
Trump is certainly the ideal opponent for Clinton. But he’s the nominee because a large plurality of Republican voters chose him, no more, no less.
But that’s true anyway, consipracy theory or not. He’s behaving in ways he never has before. Sure he’s naturally a blow-hard, but he’s not usually this stupid. He’s playing up to his fan base, and that’s still acting.
I don’t think the conspiracy theory required Trump to be the nominee, only to derail the primaries. I don’t think anyone could plan for him to have succeeded. Like many of us, even they would’ve assumed it shouldn’t have gotten this far.
I’m still not wholly convinced there isn’t more to this than meets the eye, though not as far as a cunning plot.
"Baldrick !!"
Given the apparent shift in his views, it certainly does appear to me that he is being insincere, but if so it’s because he’s willing to do whatever it takes to get votes, and not because he’s a plant to sabotage the Republican Party.
Although I will admit that the thought has crossed my mind more than once and I’ve had to beat it back using Friar Ockham’s shaving implement.
ETA: Wow. If you google “Friar Ockham’s shaving implement” it actually knows what you’re talking about and gives the types of results you would expect from googling “Occam’s razor”. Amazing.
There’s a difference between acting like a blowhard and acting like you’re not a mole when you are one.
Which is odd, since that’s a big reason people would crap on Clinton for. The only difference is that he’s going further and presenting a persona of not caring what people think. Well, that and using shock jock tactics, of course.
The idea of Trump being willing to work for someone other than himself is just too far-fetched to contemplate.
And when you consider this plan would not only require Trump to take directions from someone other than his giant ego with the concept of the Democrats successfully pulling off such an elaborate scheme, the ridiculousness of this idea increases exponentially.
A much more reasonable version of this would be that the Clintons just encouraged Trump to run rather than him being a plant. “Hey Donald, you keep threatening to run for President but you never pull the trigger. You chicken or something?”
Donald Trump’s ego is smaller than egos of most people on this forum. He doesn’t take things to heart. After the competition is over and if others won’t criticise him any further, he is the first to appreciate others and extend a hand of friendship.
Most people who say he is racist, fascist, sexist etc are just a bit blinded by hate at this point.
Let’s try to maintain at least some sense of reality here.
Trump doesn’t take things to heart? How about 30 years after the fact?
Please substantiate your assertions with actual cites. That one, along with the rest of that last post, are pure propaganda. Who is it that you think is being fooled here?
What is the volume of Mr. Trump’s ego? In recent measurements, mine came out to .0014 cubic cemtimeters. Beat that.
The more plausible versions of the theory suggest that Trump is pulling Clinton’s strings, not the other way around. He’s spent all these years buying political access through the Clintons. When his puppet Democrat didn’t make it into office in 2008, he took matters into his own hands and has now created a win-win scenario where it’s either his directly or his through Clinton.
Not that I exactly believe this, but it would actually make more sense than the truth, especially when you consider that much of Trump’s 2008 political involvement started with attacks on Obama’s eligibility for President, which may have whipped up the Republicans but would also have benefited Clinton…
I don’t think it is a conspiracy. I think Trump is a moderate/RINO that started by trolling the TeaBaggers and when “Holy shit!! I’m winning!!! Poe’s Law is awesome.” decided to stay with it if not amp it up.
Yeah - I think this is likely closer to the truth, if the Clinton’s are actually involved (highly unlikely, IMHO).
I think Trump declared because he thought it would be fun - and then the ongoing success has led to him thinking that he actually wants the job.
If, Zeus forbid, he gets elected - I’d expect him to pull a Palin and quit after a couple of years. The job of POTUS is not really fun.
Specifically applicable here is the variant known as “Hanlon’s Razor”: “”Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”
I think the point initially made here by smapti is conclusive. It’s inconceivable that a guy like Trump would go through all this effort just to help out the Clintons. Understood that he had some connection to them, but not to this level.
I would guess he ran as a Republican versus a Democrat because 1) at this time the Republican party electorate is more receptive to “outsider” campaigns, and 2) even more so because the Republican Party electorate looks much more favorably on billionaire businessmen than the Democratic Party electorate, and 3) because the Republican nomination was thought to be wide open, versus the Democratic one in which HRC emerged as the overwhelming favorite very early on.