A portion of the population would switch to bikes, and in some cities public transportation would raise their rates. There might be some revolutions in truck and shipment technology.
I would not be among the set of people who would change my behavior, mind you. I can afford to pay twice as much for gas.
The instant “local sustainability” and such is bandied about as an answer, you can be sure the speaker’s an ignoramous.
Locavorism is stupid; it’s one of the dumbest ideas in recent history. The economic and environmental benefits of economic specialization, appropriate economies of scale, and climate-appropriate agriculture dwarf the transportation costs by a margin of a thousand to one. Transportation costs are a small part of the cost of most things; attempting to reorganize production would be orders or magnitude costlier.
Ignoramus? Time will tell to whom that word should be applied. Again, I ask you to look at this,
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5969#more and draw your own conclusions.
I couldn’t agree more. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/magazine/12wwln-safire-t.html . Much ado about nothing.
Sure they are. Until you factor in the cost of driving 60 mi to work and back everyday, 15 mi to Walmart, and 200 mi for a weekend away. And, aside from transporting it to market, the increased cost of food which has been described as converting oil into food (fuel for traction, pesticides and fertilizer).
Yes, on a national scale it’s impossible for technological and political/economic reasons.
OTOH, If they start now, an agricultural bio-region, dependent on tourist dollars and cheap imported food, could shift comfortably to a post cheap oil economy. Small bio-diesel/ethanol plants to fuel a few tractors for the heavy lifting and a number of alcohol powered vehicles for local transportation and transport. Alcohol powered mopeds and bicycles with trailers for running around. Lots of greenhouses for those winter months.
If I had a nickel for every year that somebody thought would be the last then I would be making a nickel a year! (sorry for the awkward joke but I’m just in a weird mood)
I don’t think you can find a youtube video of it but the site “withouthotair” and the book are both very very good things to read if you want to see some exceptionally clear thinking about where England’s energy is going to be coming from.
“Sustainable Energy – without the hot air”
(free html, free pdf, $50 dead tree)
http://withouthotair.com/
The author is Cambridge physicist Dr. David MacKay:
Don’t worry about it.
Our situation today is unprecedented. For the past 150 years, oil has been cheap. Easily found, easily extracted and priced to sell. A gas war in the US back in the '50s meant dropping your gas price from 30c to 20c/gal. And, adjusted for inflation, gas prices here don’t differ much today.
Given the inevitable end of cheap oil and the endless rise in fuel prices to come, England and the rest of Europe will face different problems than does the US.
Your cities were founded before oil appeared on the scene with public trade right-of-ways connecting them thru well developed agriculture. Over the past 60 years, as net oil importer, you have been forced to conserve oil and have come to rely on a small and well developed regional public transportation system.
MacKay speaks about fine tuning that established system.
In the US, we’re up a whole other creek.
No need to count the ways.
I shouldn’t look at this thread.
It makes me feel like going out and buying a Hummer.
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/book/SUMMARY
If by fine tuning you actually happen to mean something like trying to find a way to eliminate our dependence on fossil fuels while also meeting something like our current energy requirements then I guess you did understand him and you will now stop talking as if we are going to run out of affordable energy.
Otherwise, if you have just dismissed MacKay with a single sentence then I have no reason to try and spoon feed rational thought to you; I was just in a strange mood and thought I would point out a related and freely available corpus of really clear thinking that might catch your eye.
Perhaps you will explain this to me.
My thesis is based on the assumption that within 2-20 years, oil prices will start rising and keep on going.
It also takes note of the fact that the entire global fabric is dependent for it’s existence on an ever growing supply of cheap oil. The world as we know it with it’s billions of people dependent on tourists and imported food is just not sustainable. The first world will be especially hard hit.
Those who avoid the Mad Max scenario will be those living where their food and fuel are grown.
There are those who believe that by the time we absolutely need them, alternatives to oil will be available and we will carry on. We don’t have the time given that seriously funded development of alternatives won’t really get under way until rising oil prices have made it profitable.
OK, I watched what I could stay awake for.
Yup. It’s a finite resource. We’re using it up. So what are you doing about it? How’s your personal environmental footprint going?
Yup, most everything is based on oil. Yup price will go up. I thought one point in the film was interestin. Loosely interpreted ’ We invented autombiles when we found oil, not because we ran out of hay for the horses.’ The film further went on to point out that mankind still seems to find ways around problems associated with shortages. They also pointed to a couple of different paths we could take. Wage war on the world to steal our oil, (ie, US, China, Russia) or we can find alternate sources to deal with it.
Here we are? Teaching pigs to dance, fly, sing? I don’t understant the alarmist vitrol you seem to be putting forth. The info in the film, to me, seemed like, “Duh! thought most people understood this.” Glad it woke you up, now is your chance to make a change. Maybe you could spearhead a movement for global cleanup from all the crap those oil companies left in the feilds when the oil was gone. That is something to get worked up over.
Me, I’m too busy commuting to work in my H2, investing in oil futures on my cell phone to be bothered with it at the moment.
(OK the last was a joke).
Really I’m too busy helping my family, parents and kids, and grandkids stay afloat, commuting on my motorcycle over 100 miles one way to keep a job, in these tough times. Maybe after I’m out of work in December, I’ll have time to lend a hand. Hope there are some free lunches in store!
later, Tom.
Carry on, bro.
I don’t have 82 minutes to spend on this, I have to spend my precious hours watching internet videos about how Muslims are taking over the west!
Life, Liberty and Time to call my own. It’s the American Way. Open wide.
While the popcorn’s poppin’, take a look at that Oil Drum article cited above.
Download it and study it seriously. Get used to the fact that 20 years from now there will be no gas at the pumps. What you gonna do now, bad boy?
Use a different type of vehicle.
Got a local fuel production and delivery infrastructure in mind?
Yes. It’s called my body.
We must all contribute what we have to the good of all. In addition to hands and feet we have a common mind.
Call me socialist, if you will.
How has this dickhead not been banned for spamming? Upthread he was soliciting people for their home address so he could send them crap in the mail. Surely that’s against the rules, no?
Excellent rigamrole,Rigamarole.
Duh. It’s been painfully obvious that this whole oil issue is just an excuse for you to propose your utopia.
Busted. :smack: