Well, I think Lynch-the-Lurker is a good place to start, so who has made the fewest posts so far? … oh, crap.
What does one discuss during the first day? Roles are hidden, so there’s not much to discuss there. We have a best guess at the number of scum, but no firm answer.
If this is an action movie Mafia game, does somebody jump on the grenade? Is that what Mosier did by casting the first (essentially meaningless) vote?
I’m always amused (and skeptical) when I see people mention how ‘hard’ it is to find the scum in Mafia. I usually find myself with the opposite problem - lots of people I’d like to vote for, and difficulty in narrowing my focus. Case in point:
I could see myself tossing out a Day 1 vote for this. Unlike Mosier’s vote (gut feeling, which I really don’t mind on Day 1), we get no information from this vote. Even Sario seems to be admitting he’s got nothing. But then…
Hah, what? This is even worse! So now, I could vote for Prof. Pepperwinkle, but…
I truly can’t puzzle out town or scum motivation for this post. He says he has a no-evidence gut feel for SP being selected as scum… but is so sure, he’d like us to lynch SP, and then lynch himself if he turns out to be wrong. Let’s say hypothetically Mosier is town, and SP is lynched and also revealed as town. We then lynch Mosier, because that was a plan. That leaves town with a pretty dire situation, with two wasted lyches and a lynch-or-lose Day 3. Why would a town Mosier want this? If he’s scum, I could guess at potential powers he might have (scum strongman, I think it’s called, where they survive an attempt at killing them?), but that’s probably unlikely.
We were never going to follow this plan, and I think Mosier knows it. This has a hint of falling-on-my-swordism for a totally inconsequential gut feeling vote. That’s a slight scum push in my mind. Yes, anti-town is not always scum. Bad plans aren’t always a scum tell. But I just can’t see why a town Mosier would post this way, and I can sort of see why a scum Mosier would. So while we wait for an answer to my subsequent question, I’m going to:
VOTE MOSIER
What am I missing here, Mosier?
Very rarely, you’d want to do it for an additional day/night phase. Here’s how you’d figure it out in a worst-case scenario:
D1 - no lynch, 7 town, 3 scum remaining
N1 - scum kill, 6 town, 3 scum remaining
D2 - mislynch, 5 town, 3 scum remaining
N2 - scum kill, 4 town, 3 scum remaining
D3 - still lynch or lose, because if we mislynch, we head into a night where the scum kill ensures scum control of the lynch. Therefore, there’s no benefit to skipping a lynch, because we lose out on that day’s reveal info.
I’d rather take a shot-in-the-dark randomly-picked lynch (1 out of 10 odds) than skip today’s lynch.
I don’t see this group getting six votes together to lynch any one person. I don’t see the benefit in lynching anyone the first Day unless we’ve got evidence of Scum, which, being the first day, most likely won’t happen. My vote (and, I assume Sario’s) was a test vote to get a reaction. It got one, which was very straightforward.
UNVOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL
And if we really need someone to offer up as a sacrificial lynch, well, it appears that Mahaloth is fated for the job. Or maybe sangfroid.
Plumpudding has contributed virtually nothing to the game so far.
VOTE PLUMPUDDING
Oh, just wait. Plum sober is dedicated, analytical and slightly out-of-focus due to English being his second language. Plum in his cups is outrageous, exasperating and quite fun to be around. Heck, we voted to lynch him last time just to be sure he was Town.
One last vote count before I leave work. I’ll check in periodically on my phone.
Vote Count
Suburbanplankton -** 1** (Mosier)
Hookerchemical - 1 (Sario)
Mosier - 1 (Astral Rejection)
Plumpudding - 1 (WF Tomba)
6 votes required for a lynch. Day 1 will end at 1230 pm EST on Friday.
Play on, players!
Using this phrasing to frame what I said isn’t very fair. I never said I’d like to be lynched if I’m wrong, and I never said I was “so sure” about anything. I just pointed out that if I’m wrong, it would seem scummy, and I acknowledge that I could be lynched for it the next day. There’s nothing unreasonable or wrong about that logic.
More sneaky phrasing. “Let’s frame the discussion by starting out pretending that Mosier is town.”
Not my plan. It might surprise you to know I’d rather not be lynched!
Agreed. There are a lot more scenarios leading to lynch-or-lose day 3 than that, though. In fact, isn’t that the most likely scenario? If we don’t hit a scum on day 1 or 2, we either lose on night 2 (with 4 dead town, leaving it 3:3), or on day 3 (if we have a no-lynch day somwhere).
Why not guess at town friendly powers, like a detective that has to pretend it’s just a “gut” feeling so he doesn’t get murdered night 1? Or, just take what I said at face value, that it was just a vote with no real evidence? Why jump immediately to suggesting scum, and dismiss any other possibility?
To repeat: it’s not my plan to get lynched. But are you seriously suggesting that nobody would even consider lynching me on day 2, if it turns out we mislynched SP on my advice day 1? That’s a pretty bold statement for you to make. Of COURSE I would be suspect number one in that case!
You’re not missing anything. You’re just overreaching, and I suspect it’s because you’re trying to provoke a response and get more info. It’s annoying (only because I’m the target), but I understand and forgive you for it. 
I would like to point out that if the assumption that there are 3 scum is correct, your analysis above is wrong. If we mislynch day 1 and 2, and scum gets 2 night kills, we end up losing with 3 town and 3 scum on day 3. I’m not saying we should do a no-lynch, but I am saying we should at least consider it if we want a guaranteed day 3 (again, if we assume there are 3 scum).
I also think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider the possibility there are only 2 scum in this game. The square root rule works well in larger games, because there are more day/night cycles before the “lynch or lose” day comes. In smaller games the rule of thumb won’t work as well. I haven’t actually done the math, but I think 3 scum would be at a huge mathematical advantage over town in this game.
Nitpick: do you mean EDT?
So, Mosier and Astral are out for me because I hunt lurkers, and they are both in the “loud” class at the moment (and good for them). The current lurkers (under 5 posts each) are Plum, Mahaloth, Plankton and sangfroid. Plum will undoubtedly make up for it, and, besides, he’s in a far different time zone. Mahaloth appears fated for death. Plankton has a valid reason. sangfroid, one of the two survivors of last game, has a habit of posting late at night.
There’s still time to watch and wait. But not lurk. Lurking bad.
UNVOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL
I was indeed just trying to generate some discussion. As we seem to be on track in that regard, I’m withdrawing my vote.
To my knowledge, all Mods assign roles randomly.
I’ve got to call you out on this. You say Mosier and Astral are out for you, but Astral only mentioned you as a possibility because he didn’t understand your vote for HC. And unless I missed a post, Mosier hasn’t mentioned you at all.
So, how exactly are they after you?
Yep.
Lurking bad.
Agreed, based on my experience last game.
I sort of hung around a lot and didn’t post much, and got called on it. Eventually managed a Town win, somehow.
This game, I intend to post as much as possible, and do my best to prove my Townworthiness…
And this includes NOT railroading innocents.
Convince me why we should lynch:
Suburbanplankton - 1 (Mosier)
Hookerchemical - 1 (Sario)
Mosier - 1 (Astral Rejection)
Plumpudding - 1 (WF Tomba)
Give me a reason people, not just a gut feeling…
He said “out for me” not “after me”. The way I read it, “out” means “I’m probably not going to vote for them.”
Mosier, I’m not going to do a line-by-line rebuttal on your post, so I hope this format is clear enough. I think, in my haste to post (I was literally on my way out the door as I hit submit), I was perhaps a little more antagonistic towards you than I intended. My apologies for that, I should have spent a little more time laying out my thoughts.
We disagree on one central point, which seems to be what you said. Here’s your original post for context:
Here’s my attempt at recapping that: My (Mosier’s) vote is flimsy, weak, and shallow. It’s based on SP being scum, and us lynching him. I have no evidence, but if I’m wrong and he’s town, I’m tacitly suggesting you’d be right to think I’m scum and lynch me, for a better town/scum ratio.
And I don’t understand this. The rest of my post isn’t a sneaky attempt at phrasing that casts you in a bad light, or to misrepresent you, but to approach why a town Mosier might write that post, and why a scum Mosier might write that post. It seemed to be a plan to me, but you’re saying it’s not. I accept that. You’re right that I’m not accounting for a town power like detective, but I didn’t consider a night 0 power usage. It’s possible, but seems unlikely to me. Your mileage may vary.
Ultimately, here’s what I found suspicious in your post: you seemed inherently defensive of your self-described flimsy vote, and you were quick to offer yourself up as a lynch target if the SP lynch goes south. I still don’t get the chain of events where (assuming you’re honest), 1) townie SP is lynched, and 2) townie Mosier is lynched, resulting in 3) a better town/scum ratio, which led me to believe something in your post might not be honest. Scum have a certain defeatist attitude towards death, for whatever reason, and seem quick to offer themselves for the lynch as “proof” of their supposed towniness, which was another strike. We even saw it last game, with one of the newbies.
If I could wax philosophic about Mafia for a second (you guys suffered through it in the Storyteller watch thread, might as well make you suffer along with it again here), I think something most players don’t do enough of is reread the dead’s suspicions. My goal with my votes is to place them early, and often, because it’s the one thing people focus on when they reread a thread. I tend to post a lot, so it’s hard enough to reread all my posts as it is, and (as a result of that), I’m often validly lynched for something stupid I’ve said, or as part of a “lynch the loud!” tactic. Nothing frustrates me more than watching people immediately ignore all my efforts and focus on my votes, and I’ve realized that the more votes I throw out, the more people pay attention to me after I’m gone. I’m a narcissist that way. 
That’s a long way of saying you should take my vote for you as seriously as you take anyone’s Day 1 lynch for anybody. If you get lynched for this post, or another post, it’s probably as valid as anybody else’s reason for getting lynch. I can guarantee I’ll be moving my vote around as I see fit, and you won’t even be remotely the last scummy thing I see. I think your responses have done a little to mute my suspicion somewhat, anyway.
I’m not sure I see what you’re saying. I think Day 3 is lynch-or-lose either way, isn’t it?
You’re possibly right, but I think it’s unlikely. If there were two scum, the worst-case day breakdown would be:
After D1: 7/2
After N1: 6/2
After D2: 5/2
After N2: 4/2
After D3: 3/2
After N3: 2/2
Day 4: LyLo
Scum needing to force twice as many mislynches as they have team members seems very skewed against the scum team.
Actually, I’m right on board with you suspecting the lurkers. I’ve got no issue with that, because I think it’s an unfortunately successful tactic for scum, especially early on.
Look at me: I’m picking on you and Mosier right now, because you guys are the ones talking. Realistically, I’ve only got you guys in the “slightly above a coin-flip’s chance of being scum” mental category, because you’re the only ones giving me material to pick at and consider. I’m as guilty of falling prey to “lynching the loud” as anyone.
Hahahahahaha good luck. I’ve been railroading innocents every single game, no matter how hard I try not to.
No, we never get to see day 3 if we mislynch day 1 and 2.
D1 - mislynch (T:S ratio is now 6:3)
N1 - scum kill (ratio is now 5:3)
D2 - mislynch (ratio is 4:3)
N2 - scum kill (3:3 - town loses)
In the above case, there is no day 3.
Sorry, missed edit window. In the above case, (8 town, 2 scum) lynch or lose is day 3, because scum wins after their night 3 kill. This is why I’m guessing there’s only 2 scum. You’re counting an even ratio as lynch or lose, but it’s not. Once it’s 2/2, town cannot win.
I guess I am, but wouldn’t that really be a tie, assuming perfect knowledge? The two townies voting for the two scum? How are ties resolved in this game?