Well, Plumpudding isn’t really lurking anymore.
UNVOTE PLUMPUDDING
VOTE MAHALOTH
Hey, all.
Checking in again and trying to make sense of the whole “first-Day” guessing game.
If anyone wants to help clue in the second game newb as to why any lynch is a good lynch first Day, I’d appreciate it.
We have nothing to go on yet other than lurking, which I now understand to be something of a tell. I do agree that players who have nothing to say might have something to hide. So hard to tell this early.
Should we go for a first round lynch? Will it help us Townies more than sorting out the accusations after a NK?
Small game compared to the last one; not really sure here…
I was gonna say something snarky, like “can you explain why he’d make a good, informative lynch?” but I re-read the thread, and Mahaloth really has been unusually lurky. So, I’ve got no issue with this vote.
Still, could I bother you for your thoughts on some of the other votes going on right now?
My work has recently blocked this site, along with giraffeboards. I am working on a “workaround”. I have no data plan of my own on cell phones.
It’s annoying, but I hope to defeat it!
If we don’t lynch today, we gain no information to use on Day 2 beyond who the scum choose to kill. Day 2 becomes our first day, so to speak. We could choose not to lynch again, by the same argument, and then the third day as well, and we’d never get anywhere. What are your thoughts on the topic?
It’s certainly one possible tell. Another possible tell could be posts such as yours. What are your thoughts on the game so far? On Mosier, or on Prof. Pepperwinkle, or anyone else? I don’t think you’ve given us much to work with yet (if I’ve missed anything, please point it out to me). You’ve checked in a couple of times, and promised us more substantial posts.
I’d certainly like us to lynch, but the majority requirement will certainly up the difficulty. “Herding cats” describes the lynch most days, and most lynches don’t require a majority of voters. What are your thoughts on the topic?
I think this post gives me enough of a scum lean on you. I’m comfortable dropping a vote on you for this.
UNVOTE
VOTE SANGFROID
I know you’re new, and (if you’re town) this is probably a frustrating vote to receive, because then you’re just honestly asking, and getting a vote for your trouble. Same thing I said to Prof P: no hard feelings intended.
Well, there are only 2 other votes currently, unless I missed something: Mosier’s vote for Suburban Plankton and your vote for Mosier.
I think Mosier’s vote is basically arbitrary, and I agree with you that the explanation given for it does not make much sense. I don’t think it seems particularly scummy, though – just weird.
OK, now I’m getting a scum read on you, Astral Rejection. There was absolutely nothing suspicious about sangfroid’s post, and you are pushing hard for a lynch without a very convincing reason.
If we lynch toDay, one might suppose that we will have an x/10 chance of getting scum, where x is the number of scum. But I would argue that the chance is actually lower, due to the bad guys’ information advantage. If we start to target a townie, we will have a slightly easier time getting to 6 votes, because the bad guys will be more willing to join the bandwagon. Therefore, an effort to lynch a townie is probably a bit more likely to succeed.
vote Astral
It’s clear that he’s up to no Gouda.
On the other hand… I’m not a fan of this post at all…
Mosier send to be trying to convince us that there’s no point in lynching anyone on Day 1, because it will be no more than a random vir, so it will probably be a mislynch, and we can’t afford to many of those… So to be on the safe side we probably shouldn’t bother.
Except that if we all just decide not to lynch on Day 1, then we wind up gathering no information, and we find ourselves in exactly the same spot on Day 2…except that we are most likely down one Townie, since we just waited around for the Scum to kill someone. This is why games don’t begin with a Night phase in which the Scum are allowed to kill.
Am I think that Mosier has been around long enough to know all of this, yet recommends that we do it anyway.
** unvote Astral
vote Mosier **
There is still not much to go on. Nobody is obviously lurking, and those who might be considered to be so the most (Mahaloth and Plankton) have stated reasonable data to explain their inactivities.
To my mind there are two leading candidates: Mosier and Astral.
Mosier, because even though he states he’s voting for Plankton out of a slight gut feeling, cannot be budged from his vote even though others have rebuked what few arguments he’s been able to produce.
Astral, because back in post 21 indicated the worst-case scenario would start with a mislynch, and yet he still argues for a lynch on the first Day.
I’m leaning more to Mosier than to Astral, but…
Well put.
Well, no. I think you have this backwards. I think I made it clear that mislynching and skipping a lynch have identical outcomes; that is, town is at lynch-or-lose on Day 3. Therefore, I argued that we’re better off having Day 1’s lynch result to use as information for subsequent lynches. I’ve posted plenty… It’s odd that this is my most suspicious post to you.
UPDATED VOTE COUNT
Suburbanplankton - 1 (Mosier)
Mosier - 1 (Suburban Plankton)
Mahaloth - 1 (WF Tomba)
Sangfroid - 1 (Astral Rejection)
6 votes required for a lynch. Day 1 will end at 1230 pm EDT on Friday.
Play on, players!
Both Astral and Mosier are looking iffy to me but this post doesn’t sit well either. You cast one vote and then immediately turn around and go in a different direction. I’m thinking your just trying to spread some suspicion around.
VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON
Check in, no scum hunting.
Check on, no scum hunting.
Check in, no scum hunting.
Check in, no scum hunting.
Check in, no scum hunting.
I know he’s new, so maybe you guys don’t find this as scum-suggestive as I do, but do you really not see what I’m accusing him of? I don’t think I’m pushing him for no reason; at the very least, I want to see scum hunting before I give somebody a town lean.
Oh, I see exactly what you are accusing him of. He played exactly the same way last game and he was Town. sangfroid posting more often is his attempt at being more “Town” but he’s not really convincing. At this point I don’t think he’s scum.
And, having gone back over your posts, Astral, I can see your point, and withdraw my suspicion of you as well. If something doesn’t change, it looks like Mosier may actually be lynched tomorrow.
While I’m at it…
VOTE MOSIER
Prof. Pepperwinkle – It’s a majority vote, so Mosier would need four more votes.
Oh, I realize that. I’m just not sure enough to campaign for them yet.
The “check in, no scum hunting” post rubs me wrong. And we are voting with all caps? Weird. OK.
VOTE ASTRAL REJECTION
Not true. On day 2, we’ll have the results of night 1 to consider.
Do you think there are 3 scum? If so, we lose after 2 mislynches, whether those are on day 1 and 2, or on day 2 and 3. So we can either have 2 lynch days and 2 nights before we lose, or we can have 1 no-lynch day, 2 lynch days, and 2 nights before we lose.
If you think there are fewer than 3 scum (which I do), then I think a lynch every day is in order. I happen to think there’s only 2 scum, because only having 1 chance to mislynch (because we’re dead if we do it twice) is so outrageously unfair. That’s why I’m still voting, and at this point it might as well be you.
I have only ever played 2 mafia games in my life, and both of them were over a year ago. I have spectated enough to have a decent feel for it though!
Also, you claim I recommend we no-lynch on day 1, but I did not. I just pointed out that if you think there are 3 scum, no lynch on day 1 is mathematically the right thing to do. I stand behind that statement, as the only arguments against it so far are completely wrong, like yours.
The revenge is strong in you!