As Damon Runyan once wrote, “The race does not always go to the swiftest, nor the fight to the strongest—but that’s the way to bet it.”
Some I know would just move the goalpost int he direction of that anything that has not yet happened is 50/50 so they don’t like those odds.
Why do you need to get through to them? It’ll all be over in a couple of weeks and then you can say ‘I told you so’.
Runyan’s other great quote that I use whenever I can is “I long ago came to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against”
How about starting with this?
“If I roll this die, will an odd number come up?”
“Or will a an even number come up?”
“Do you think those are equally likely?”
“50-50 coin flip, innit?”
“Which is more likely: an odd number, or a six?”
As to the election, or damn near anything involving current politics, it isn’t about odds, it isn’t about math, it isn’t about logic.
It’s about the power of wishful thinking and folks desperately wanting to believe that the line of professionally spun BS they’ve been swallowing for years will pay off as they’ve been told it will.
Until you can get the propaganda out of their ear for a year or two and replace it with a real course of real facts, you may as well be debating with somebody high on LSD about what shape the melting clock is.