10. Democrats Steal Texas Governor’s Mansion. Ultraconservative Pub incumbent Rick Perry battles it out with moderate Kay Bailey Hutchinson for the nomination. It’s so bloody and vituperative that, while Perry wins the primary, he loses the general election to Houston Mayor Bill White.
Sounds plausible to an outsider. Texas Dopers?
9. Obama Does Nada on Gay Rights. Because he doesn’t want to threaten the prospects of his own legislative agenda with socially divisive policies/rhetoric.
Sounds very plausible indeed to me. In fact, sounds like the right call for him to make. (Sorry, gayguys.)
8. Obama Gets Second Court Pick. Cancer-ridden Ruth Bader Ginsburg resigns. Obama nominates Seventh Circuit Judge Diane Wood, who “would confidently sit on the court’s left side,” and dissented in decisions upholding late-term abortion bans. She is confirmed after a bitter partisan battle in the Senate.
Sounds likely overall – but are there any possibilities other than Wood?
7. Dodd Loses Seat. Long-serving Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) finds “his fancy credentials can no longer appease the twin personalities of Connecticut voters. For the socially liberal Yankees, Dodd has become an enabler of corporate excess: the man who accepted sweetheart mortgage loans from Countrywide Financial and who approved bonuses for AIG executives at the same time the firm was receiving government bailout money.Simultaneously, Dodd has alienated his other constituents: the fiscally conservative hedge-fund and financier donors. The last thing they want to hear about is increased financial regulation. And, Dodd in an effort to separate himself from the coziness between Wall Street and Washington, recently unveiled a proposal for much stricter rules on credit-card companies, banks, and mortgage lenders.” No comment on what Pub might unseat him.
Waitaminnit, is it possible any Dem might unseat him? Is he facing any primary challenges?
6. Florida Elects Sen. Crist. Moderate Pub Governor Charlie Crist edges out ultraright challenger Marco Rubio “by a whisker and, given the weakness of his likely Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, he’ll go on to capture the seat.”
I think it’s too soon to call. Frankly, Floridians don’t think much of Charlie Crist – that is, we don’t think of him much, for good or for ill. He has not been a very high-profile governor. The only thing everybody knows about him is that, despite his recent marriage to a supermodel, he is almost certainly gay (which, believe it or not, was not an issue at all, or much commented on, in the gubernatorial election). But I agree Meek is the most likely Dem nominee; the other candidates are nobodies.
5. Palin Gets Her Talk Show.
Sure, why not? :rolleyes:
4. Troubled California Stays Blue. Pubs Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman lose their bids for senator and governor, respectively. “Both women are hoping populist anger will color the Golden State a redder hue, but they’ve already misstepped by staking their campaigns on an impending backlash to environmental concerns—unwise in the state that lays claim to both San Francisco and Hollywood. Whitman will lose to Golden Boy Jerry Brown. And Fiorina? Electing her would mean replacing high-ranking Barbara Boxer with a junior senator in the minority party.”
Don’t know enough to comment. CaliDopers?
3. GOP Blocks Immigration Reform. The Dems propose immigration reform similar to that floated in 2007, cracking down on employers of undocumented workers while opening a path to citizenship for illegals already here. The backlash is even worse than in 2007, because of high unemployment. “* in the House, where members will be just months away from midterm elections, things will fall apart, as moderate Democrats join a united GOP opposition. Republicans will emerge victorious. Yet in getting there, they’ll employ such strident rhetoric that, in the minds of many, they’ll seal their image as anti-immigrant and anti-Latino. Come November, Hispanics will respond with energetic turnout, helping keep some House seats blue and further ensconcing themselves in the Democratic fold.”
Sounds depressingly predictable. Immigration is almost the only populist issue the GOP has got left.
2. GOP Ousts Reid. Simply because Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s approval rating in Nevada is sinking. Newsweek predicts his defeat even though no strong Pub candidate has yet emerged.
I have no idea. NevaDopers?
1. Pelosi Keeps the House. The Dems are going into the midterms with a lot of disadvantages, but “aren’t that popular either, and there are several contests like NY-23 where battles between ultraconservatives and moderate Republicans could hand the seat to a Dem. To the chagrin of the right, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will still own the House; she’ll just have a few less folks to kick around.”
I say this one’s right on the money.
Your opinions?
