I’m going to say it won’t be Joe Biden, nor do I believe it will be Hillary Clinton, who in 2016 will be 69 years old and, having seen Obama age ten years in four, might not think the job sounds as great as she once thought.
So who’ll it be? Or am I wrong about Biden or Clinton?
Biden? No way. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Clinton run. Other than that, though, I expect to see a slew of Democratic governors in the running, including, most likely:
-Jerry Brown (he’s run before, showing he’s got the desire, and he seems to be pretty respected in CA now, meaning he’s got the chops)
-Andrew Cuomo
-Deval Patrick (no reason except that governors from MA just love to run for president).
I also expect to see some folks from House and Senate, maybe including:
-Dick Durbin (again with the Illinois Senator thing, also part of the leadership)
And finally:
Julian Castro. He’d be super-young this cycle, only 42 (good lord, the man is a few weeks younger than me!), but he might try for it anyway, if not this cycle then in the next few.
For some reason my governor (Jay Nixon) has got a little local buzz amongst the Democrats I’ve spoken to. Not sure that he has the chops for that sort of thing, but as a red-state Governor he’d at least get a look (more so if Obama loses, IMO).
ETA: Of course there is the small issue of his last name…
I think it depends on how Obama’s second term ends. If things are up and humming like a well-oiled machine, both economically and foreign policy-wise and no scandals, I could see Hillary.
If things are less-than-stellar, I don’t see Hillary or Biden putting themselves through a tough campaign again (having been a part of Obama’s administration and having that get tossed back in their faces on the campaign trail), while facing the very real possibility of losing.
I could actually see a Clinton-Castro ticket if the next four years go well for the country.
If, however, things are sluggish or some “2015 surprise” rocks us, I could see someone like Andrew Cuomo or Tim Kaine. Bland, centrist, palatable against presumably the Republican’s far-right nominee. (I think the Republican powers-that-be will want a person of color as their nominee, but I suspect it’ll be someone like Santorum or Ryan who gets the nod).
Halfway through looking over lists of governors and such, it occurred to me to start looking at age. But I was too lazy to go back and look at ages for folks I’d already typed about, and then I was too lazy to mention that, too. So thanks for the catch!
The sitting VP has a pretty strong hand. I think Alben Barkley (Truman’s VP) was the most recent sitting VP to try for his party’s nomination and be denied. Especially if the second term goes well*, Biden could ride that momentum to the nomination.
Damn, that would be great name combo, and I generally like the ticket, too. In reality, I can’t see someone jumping from mayor of San Antonio to the Presidency in four years.
I only have predictions on who it won’t be. It won’t be Clinton or Biden. I figured Obama was going to be the nominee from the 2004 convention on, but the pool is too wide and even for me to see anyone that I think is a likely candidate as a favorite.
Not a chance - he’ll be governor of California first.
Besides, you have to take into account the fact that people who would otherwise drink the Democratic party Kool-Aid would hesitate to vote for someone who, almost certainly, would do everything in his power to “legalize” gay marriage pretty much immediately after he took the oath of office.
I think Hillary will get the nomination if she wants it.
He’d be older then McCain was in '08. And he seems to spend most of his time advising the Prez and negotiating with the Senate. If he were looking to be Prez, I think he’d insist on being the “front-man” for some of the WH’s initiatives.