8 to 12 years from now so many of those people will be dead that it won’t be much of an issue.
For the first time in my lifetime the president is younger than I am (also by just a few weeks).
And just for the record, in the same 4 years my hair has gone from about 10% gray to 60% gray, and I’ve had considerably less stress than the president. IOW, the gray isn’t necessarily an indicator of the job aging you more than usual.
Oh, back on topic:
I think Hillary will only run if it doesn’t look like there’s some young whippersnapper who could snatch the primary victory away from her, and particularly only if she were to unequivocally get Obama’s support to stump for her.
There is plenty of time for that between now and 2024.
By 2024 that will be a plus, especially in the Democratic primary.
I don’t think it’ll be Hillary. I’d agree with Cory Booker as a possibility. Or more likely, someone we haven’t heard of yet.
2016 will be a different world.
I’d say Julian Castro for president with Elizabeth Warren for VP.
Crane
cough State Senator to President: 4 years.
Hillary is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. If she wants it. BILL wants it but I don’t think anyone knows whether SHE wants it.
My surprise pick: Mark Warner, About to be Senior Senator from Virginia. He’ll carry VA easily, is a solid fiscal conservative Democrat with a HUGE business record behind him. Good speaker and gave the keynote at the 2008 convention.
He could do it. Best keep an eye on him.
I disagree. The eventual nominee for a cycle is at the least, usually someone who is mentioned on the shortlist for that cycle four years or more beforehand. Romney, McCain and Reagan were previous “runners-up”. Mondale, Bush I and Gore were VPs, Kerry was on the short-list to be Gore’s running mate, Obama was touted as a possible candidate as soon as he made his '04 Convention speech, Clinton had already run in the primaries in '88 (dunno about Dukakis, was anyone talking about him in 1984?).
So I’ll guess whomever it ends up being, the Dem nominee will not only be someone most of us have heard of, but will be mentioned in this thread.
My surprise pick is Jon Stewart.
Bloomberg has been a Democrat, of course. But he’s at least considered both a third-party run and kickstarting a third party, and neither one of those would endear him to Democrats. And the odds of Chris Christie becoming a Democrat are near zero.
No one was even talking about Dukakis in 1986.
I also think you’re wrong about Obama. He was definitely talked about as presidential material beginning with that speech, but the focus at that time was not on 2008, IIRC.
There are also a lot of close finishers who were not mentioned four years prior, e.g. Huckabee, Santorum et al.
In any event, I think the situation is different as regards to this on the Republican side than the Democratic. On the Republican side anyone prominent enough to run is/was already being talked about in this cycle. For Democrats, there are people who have been rising in the past few years, who might have been talked about had Obama not been the incumbent, but who weren’t since there was no open slot.
I don’t disagree that there are cycles, but I disagree on your timeline. Traditionally the cycle for Republican nominations has been much longer than Democratic nominations. McCain ran against GW in 2000, and didn’t win the nomination until 8 years later. Romney has been running for President since 2007, and finally got his turn in 2012. Democrats don’t recycle their candidates nearly as much as Republicans, and your own list shows that. Obama gave the speech he became known for in 2004, but I don’t know that anyone was talking about him running for President at that time. If we’re talking about 2016, I think it’s very likely it will end up being a Senator or Governor that is new to office or about to be elected in this cycle. That’s just my opinion, but the sense that I get is the nominee for the Republican party will always be someone who has run before and it’s now their “turn” to win the nomination.
As a New Yorker, I would be surprised if Andrew Cuomo is not a serious contender.
I don’t think Hillary wants the job, and I think that someone will be able to convince Biden to take the train back to Delaware and retire as an elder statesman (rather than going for the brass ring and losing).
Cuomo has been the federal HUD Secretary, a well-regarded New York Attorney General, and an effective Governor to date. He has been deliberately keeping himself under the national radar at the moment, but I have no doubt that once the events of this week play out, he’ll be more and more in the spotlight.
Congress’s approval ratings are so low right now, and show no signs of getting better, that I doubt that any Senator will be able to make the cut. I’m not all that familiar with the rest of the crop of Democratic governors, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of them in the early primary scrum, but I think that Cuomo will be one of the few that come out as a leading contender.
This is about as likely as Obama getting a third term.
Why? Four years is a long time in politics.
Mark Warner, Amy Klobuchar, or Brian Schweitzer.
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
No, I don’t think so. He’s widely perceived as a slimy opportunist, and he talks too much, mostly about himself. If he can win the next election for Governor, do a good job, reform some of his own worst characteristics, and find a different hair product, then maybe, just maybe, he might have a run for it.
Roddy
It’s almost a certainty that the nominee will already be someone either in a lower office or some other type of public figure. And there are a lot of people here, surely one of us lives in their state.
No one is saying that the person running in the 2016 Presidential race literally does not exist. What they’re saying is that they are not a big name public figure at this moment, someone we are not discussing as a possible nominee.
I’ve gone on record in previous threads. My prediction for 2016 is it’ll be a race between Andrew Cuomo and Rick Santorum.
The claim being responded to was “someone none of us has heard of”. This is basically impossible on a forum that discusses politics as much as this one does.
I can almost guarantee that I’ve at least heard of whomever will be the 2016 nominee from both parties. As evidence of this, I can honestly say that I’ve heard of every single person mentioned in this thread so far (although it took me a second to remember who Newsom was).
Even if you think it’s somebody not listed in this thread, they will not be a complete unknown.