Debate Newsweek's 2010 Politics Predictions

[BrainGlutton]

More on Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

Gov. Charlie Crist begins decade fighting poll numbers

BY STEVE BOUSQUET AND MARC CAPUTO
Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau

TALLAHASSEE – Charlie Crist’s final year as governor begins like no other: with perilous poll numbers, his optimism worn thin and his shell of political Teflon deeply scratched.

After two years of governing Florida by shrewdly gauging the prevailing political winds, Crist strayed off course as the economy spiraled downward in 2009, his nice-guy image no longer effective as a balm for frustrated Floridians.

He miscalculated the danger of his ``man hug’’ with President Barack Obama in support of the Democrats’ stimulus package. He signed a no-new-taxes pledge only to raise taxes weeks later to balance the state budget. And the biggest contributor in his campaign for U.S. Senate, Fort Lauderdale lawyer Scott Rothstein, was charged in a $1.2 billion Ponzi scheme.

By year’s end, his Republican Senate rival, Marco Rubio, had gained ground as a conservative alternative.

[BrainGlutton]

@astorian

On PBS and NPR, what we get are, what Mark Steyn would call, the voice of the left and the voice of the slightly-right-of-the-left.

I don’t know about PBS, but there is no voice-of-the-left on NPR. You have to tune in to Pacifica or Democracy Now! for that.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@Syntropy

After the job Tom DeLay did on redistricting? Not a chance. Kay Bailey Hutchison is as close as we’re going to get. Still, she’s a damn sight better than Gov. Good Hair.

How does the DeLay redistricting affect a Governor’s race? Isn’t voting on that statewide?

[Der_Trihs]

Reported

[Gyrate]

To be fair, given the way things have gone for New Jersey politicians last year it’s likely that Asian escorts will appear in the news at some point during 2010.

[Captain_Amazing]

Because it impacts on one of the items on your list, Chris Dodd has scheduled a press conference for noon where he’s going to announce he’s not seeking reelection.

[middleman]

@mswas

Isn’t Bill White openly homosexual? A gay governor of Texas would fulfill the prophecy as set down by RevCo.

No. Bill White’s successor, Annise Parker, is openly gay. Annise took office a few weeks ago when White, a married man with kids, was term limited. That’s probably what you are thinking of.

@t-bonham@scc.net

How does the DeLay redistricting affect a Governor’s race? Isn’t voting on that statewide?

The only thing I can think of is that maybe the elected official who can help Perry win are conservative because of DeLay’s efforts. I’m sort of confused as well!

Rapid response to the Top Ten:

10. Democrats Steal Texas Governor’s Mansion.- No. I think the GOP’s majority machine saves the day despite the GOP primary. I think that if the DEMs had a strong hispanic candidate running this cycle, they could have taken it.

9. Obama Does Nada on Gay Rights.- Pretty subjective. Depends on the definition of nada. I could see some roll back or liberalization on Don’t Ask policy.

8. Obama Gets Second Court Pick.- I agree. I don’t know about the pick. Before Bush tabbed Roberts, there were a couple of articles a year on the hot circuit judges. Despite Obama already making a pick, I haven’t caught up enough on the hot names.

7. Dodd Loses Seat.- Already done.

6. Florida Elects Sen. Crist. I predict Rubio take the primary, indicating a fissure in GOP/Tea Party unity.

5. Palin Gets Her Talk Show.- She signed with Fox today for commentary duties.

4. Troubled California Stays Blue.- I agree. The state is fiscally unmanageable, so it doesn’t matter who runs it. Might as well have someone who shares the state’s social values in Sacramento.

3. GOP Blocks Immigration Reform.- Not sure Obama and company will send that up the flag poll in an election year. Wait for 2011.

2. GOP Ousts Reid.- I think Reid is a goner.

1. Pelosi Keeps the House.- Almost a certainty, but with enough losses to make it harder for her to summon automatic majorities.

[astorian]

@BrainGlutton

Here.

10. Democrats Steal Texas Governor’s Mansion. Ultraconservative Pub incumbent Rick Perry battles it out with moderate Kay Bailey Hutchinson for the nomination. It’s so bloody and vituperative that, while Perry wins the primary, he loses the general election to Houston Mayor Bill White.

Sounds plausible to an outsider. Texas Dopers?
9. Obama Does Nada on Gay Rights. Because he doesn’t want to threaten the prospects of his own legislative agenda with socially divisive policies/rhetoric.

Sounds very plausible indeed to me. In fact, sounds like the right call for him to make. (Sorry, gayguys.)
8. Obama Gets Second Court Pick. Cancer-ridden Ruth Bader Ginsburg resigns. Obama nominates Seventh Circuit Judge Diane Wood, who “would confidently sit on the court’s left side,” and dissented in decisions upholding late-term abortion bans. She is confirmed after a bitter partisan battle in the Senate.

Sounds likely overall – but are there any possibilities other than Wood?
7. Dodd Loses Seat. Long-serving Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) finds “his fancy credentials can no longer appease the twin personalities of Connecticut voters. For the socially liberal Yankees, Dodd has become an enabler of corporate excess: the man who accepted sweetheart mortgage loans from Countrywide Financial and who approved bonuses for AIG executives at the same time the firm was receiving government bailout money.Simultaneously, Dodd has alienated his other constituents: the fiscally conservative hedge-fund and financier donors. The last thing they want to hear about is increased financial regulation. And, Dodd in an effort to separate himself from the coziness between Wall Street and Washington, recently unveiled a proposal for much stricter rules on credit-card companies, banks, and mortgage lenders.” No comment on what Pub might unseat him.

Waitaminnit, is it possible any Dem might unseat him? Is he facing any primary challenges?
6. Florida Elects Sen. Crist. Moderate Pub Governor Charlie Crist edges out ultraright challenger Marco Rubio “by a whisker and, given the weakness of his likely Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, he’ll go on to capture the seat.”

I think it’s too soon to call. Frankly, Floridians don’t think much of Charlie Crist – that is, we don’t think of him much, for good or for ill. He has not been a very high-profile governor. The only thing everybody knows about him is that, despite his recent marriage to a supermodel, he is almost certainly gay (which, believe it or not, was not an issue at all, or much commented on, in the gubernatorial election). But I agree Meek is the most likely Dem nominee; the other candidates are nobodies.
5. Palin Gets Her Talk Show.

Sure, why not? :rolleyes:
4. Troubled California Stays Blue. Pubs Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman lose their bids for senator and governor, respectively. “Both women are hoping populist anger will color the Golden State a redder hue, but they’ve already misstepped by staking their campaigns on an impending backlash to environmental concerns—unwise in the state that lays claim to both San Francisco and Hollywood. Whitman will lose to Golden Boy Jerry Brown. And Fiorina? Electing her would mean replacing high-ranking Barbara Boxer with a junior senator in the minority party.”

Don’t know enough to comment. CaliDopers?
3. GOP Blocks Immigration Reform. The Dems propose immigration reform similar to that floated in 2007, cracking down on employers of undocumented workers while opening a path to citizenship for illegals already here. The backlash is even worse than in 2007, because of high unemployment. “* in the House, where members will be just months away from midterm elections, things will fall apart, as moderate Democrats join a united GOP opposition. Republicans will emerge victorious. Yet in getting there, they’ll employ such strident rhetoric that, in the minds of many, they’ll seal their image as anti-immigrant and anti-Latino. Come November, Hispanics will respond with energetic turnout, helping keep some House seats blue and further ensconcing themselves in the Democratic fold.”

Sounds depressingly predictable. Immigration is almost the only populist issue the GOP has got left.
2. GOP Ousts Reid. Simply because Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s approval rating in Nevada is sinking. Newsweek predicts his defeat even though no strong Pub candidate has yet emerged.

I have no idea. NevaDopers?
1. Pelosi Keeps the House. The Dems are going into the midterms with a lot of disadvantages, but “aren’t that popular either, and there are several contests like NY-23 where battles between ultraconservatives and moderate Republicans could hand the seat to a Dem. To the chagrin of the right, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will still own the House; she’ll just have a few less folks to kick around.”

I say this one’s right on the money.
Your opinions?

Oh, just a bump 5 years later to point out that Newsweek wasn’t anywhere close to the mark on most of these.

[Voyager]

@astorian

Oh, just a bump 5 years later to point out that Newsweek wasn’t anywhere close to the mark on most of these.

Who is? And did they predict their own demise?

[astorian]

@Voyager

Who is? And did they predict their own demise?

No- but they DID have a cover story by David Frum explaining why Rush Limbaugh and right-wing talk radio were doomed.

[Fuzzy_wuzzy]

@astorian

Oh, just a bump 5 years later to point out that Newsweek wasn’t anywhere close to the mark on most of these.

Confirms me in my belief that most political writers knows nothing more than what your average reasonably informed man or woman on the street knows. Include some of the political prejudice of the writer and invariably the articles written for us are complete bollocks.