Debate Newsweek's 2010 World Predictions

Here.

10. Castro Dies, U.S. Relations Improve. Raul curtails anti-American rhetoric, Obama responds with rapprochement.

Sounds reasonable, and devoutly to be wish’d, if Castro dies this year – as to that, who knows? Newsweek, strangely, does not comment on how this might affect U.S. relations with Venezuela and other countries of the Bolivarian Alliance. (But see #4.)
9. Europe Faces New Financial Crisis. Newsweek predicts a crisis in public finance. “Government deficits have ballooned to more than 12 percent of GDP in Spain, Ireland, and the U.K., while government debt will hit over 100 percent across the European Union by 2014.” Some countries might be forced to default.

I don’t know enough to comment – what say the EuroDopers?
8. A Pyrrhic Victory for the Tories. The Conservatives fail to win a majority and are forced into coalition with the Liberal Democrats. This makes them " too weak to push through the painful measures needed to redress Britain’s ballooning debts." The economy “plunges back into deep recession.”

:eek: WTF?! I can see the LibDems going into coalition with Labor, but with the Tories?! Isn’t that, like, against everything they stand for?! Maybe I’m just too clueless about UK politics. And what are these “painful measures needed,” anyway? Is Newsweek betraying a bias here?
7. Brazil Is the New China. Brazil’s economy, stimulated by a recent oil find, will race ahead of the other BRIC countries.

Again, don’t know enough. LADopers?
6. Iran Hit With Sanctions. “When another secret nuclear site is inevitably found, the United Nations will have no choice but to consider imposing sanctions, and today’s holdouts, including China and India, will have run out of excuses. The sanctions could be devastating for a country that imports two fifths of its gasoline, and much of its food and manufactured products. The economic hardship will fall mostly on the poor and middle class, but it won’t do much to hurt the intended targets.”

:confused: What’s inevitable about another nuclear site being found, or existing?
5. A Backlash Against European Racism. More unrest and rioting by the impoverished Muslim minority predicted.

EuroDopers?
4. Chavez Faces Another Coup. Economic collapse destroys Chavez’ popularity. “The military steps in to depose Chávez and restore order.”

:rolleyes: This one sounds suspiciously like wishful thinking . . .
3. Another Coup in Pakistan.

Sounds like an even-money bet in any year. :frowning:
2. China Will Crash. Not general sociopolitical collapse, just “the China stock and real-estate bubble will collapse, leading to a destabilizing bout of global deflation. If this occurs in tandem with a banking crisis, a trade war, or a slowdown in Chinese growth, it could be a pop heard round the world.”

This is the most interesting (in the Chinese sense) one on the list. But I don’t know enough about how bubblicious the Chinese financial and securities sector is at present. China Guy?
1. The Afghan Surge Works. Mainly because General McChrystal has learned the lessons of Iraq and is refocusing efforts on protecting the Afghan population.

We may hope – but it may complicate things immensely, if there is another coup in neighboring Pakistan.

… in other news, water is wet.

Not a EuroDoper, but, if I’m reading this right, are they predicting that there’ll be persecution of Euro minorities, followed by minorities protesting/rioting in kind? Sounds like a pretty sure thing to me, no matter what year you’re talking about or what went on in the previous year/decade.

Im sorry, BG. You have two threads with the same name, but differently worded OP’s…

What’s up with that?

One is for “World Predictions,” the other is “Politics Predictions.”

dammit. growing old sucks.

(Sorry to bother y’all.)

I confidently predict that in 2010, growing old will suck.

Well, rumor has it that the alternative is less desirable. :smiley:

(I was confused, too)

In response to the OP, better U.S.-Cuban relations after Fidel dies seems reasonable.

I really don’t see protests/rioting helping Muslims in Europe. If anything, I think that might make things worse.

Also dunno how we determine if the surge works in Afghanistan. Folks have been fighting there for centuries. I expect folks will be fighting there for centuries to come, regardless of whether U.S. troops are involved or not.

Afghanistan is a lost cause. Pakistan is the concern.

That’s my problem with claims that “the surge” or anything else will work. First, define “work” and we can argue over whether or not something will do so. Claiming that “the surge will work in Afghanistan” is meaningless without a definition of what is meant by “work”.

10 - Castro/Cuba Relations - The idea of Fidel passing is not that much of a stretch. However, I think Chavez will do all possible to prevent any thawing of the relationship between the US & Cuba
9 - Europe Financial Crisis - fueled by Cap & Trade policies
8 - Tories - no opinion
7 - Brazil as the new China - While they will benefit from the offshore development of the oil field, there will still be a wide gulf between them and China. China will continue to be powered by US industrial production and our interest payments.
6 - Iran - yes, and their response will continue to be, “So What”
5 - European racism - As long as the immigrants insist on Sharia Law concepts instead of adopting societal norms - yes
4 - Chavez - crushes any coup attempt and becomes an even stronger dictator
3 - Pakistan - it’s only a matter of time until their nuclear power / weapons capabilities fall into less than desirable hands
2 - China - no way, unless US industrial base closes operations and returns all production stateside - not f’ing likely
1 - Afghan - doubtful an additional 30k troops can help accomplish in 12 months what hasn’t been possible in 8 years.

In terms of Europe’s deficits, having a debt level that is more than 100% of the value of GDP is not unprecedented, as Paul Krugman has argued numerous times. If comparatively dysfunctional nations such as Belgium and Italy can survive such debt levels without defaulting and collapsing, then so can Spain, Ireland, and the U.K. (and the U.S., for that matter).

As for China, I gather their “collapse” refers to the inevitable realization that they’ll have to revalue their currency or let it float in order to combat rising inflation. I could see them ending up like Japan did.

I would define it as a state of affairs where the foreign troops can pull out, without risk that the Taliban or something like it will return to power.

They’re gonna be fucked over the next ten years by the one-child policy.

It’s plausible. The current US/Cuba political situation is so out of date that it’s begging to be changed. Something shifting like that could be the crack in the door to open relations again.

If it came on the news in a few months I wouldn’t be shocked but at the same time I wouldn’t bet on it. I think they’ve kept the plates spinning this long they’ll be able to keep them going a bit longer.

I doubt it. Your scenario comes across as a lot more plausible to me.

Brazil has been about to break out for decades. They may do it eventually but it won’t be next year.

The only way Iran will have serious economic sanctions imposed (as opposed to slap on the wrist stuff that’s ignored) is if Iraq stabilizes so the oil supply can be more secure. Since I don’t see that happening in 2010 the UN inspectors could find Ahmadinejad snorting plutonium off of a hooker with a tattoo of their plans to attack Israel and they’d just make “tut-tut” noises.

If they mean unrest continuing then that’s a “Well duh!” statement. If they mean it finally boiling over across the continent I find it very unlikely.

Not a chance in hell. Chavez will play the populist dictator card of blaming all their problems, especially the ones he directly caused, on the United States and be met by the crowd’s roaring approval.

I suppose it depends on how you define “coup” and “another”.

I find it unlikely. While China does have its own bubbles going on and it’s a near sure thing that when these finally go the government intervention is going to make things worse I strongly doubt that it will happen next year. And even then there won’t be a trade war; it’ll be more of a shift like Russia where the wide group of entrepreneurs become a handful of oligarchs.

I can believe that it will work in accomplishing the short term tactical goals. I’m dubious about it being effective at putting the country back together again.

A problem they can always solve by opening their borders to (female) immigrants.

Aren’t relations already improving? Raul’s in charge now and I don’t see any dramatic change in policy when Fidel finally dies. I think what will happen is that after health care passes and the economy stablizes, there will be more political capital and will for Obama to spend and he can focus on these secondary issues. That will determine a lot of these predictions’ validity, not the death of an old guy who’s essentially out of power

Painful probably refers to short-term economic turmoil for long-term gain. No comment on Britain’s politics as I don’t know enough about them to comment

Wouldn’t any oil find still require years of work to tap into?

I don’t see Iran’s situation changing. More bait-and-switch leading to stalemates and people dramatically walking off the negotiation tables for effect. I think a nuclear Iran is inevitable, not discovering another site.

Don’t they have rioting every year?

Yeah, no proof something like this is even in the works

I concur

I don’t really see why this would happen. They’ve weathered this current economic crisis better than anyone so far

I don’t see how this is possible. Afghanistan is bigger, more populated, and more messed up than Iraq, plus we have less troops in there than Iraq.

How many females would want to immigrate to a country that is having those demographic problems in the first place due to a hostility towards women?

Not so much a “hostility towards women” as a cultural bias that every family needs sons. And grandsons. Which you can’t have unless a woman is to be found somewhere. So . . .

Or legally capping the lifespan.