Pizza - We have two vote leaders. You can’t browbeat people about the dangers of splitting the vote 3 ways then try to drive a third wagon in the last 9 hours. Take a deep breath.
All your extra blocker problems disappear if you assume that Red is lying about being blocked. N3 only makes sense if Red is scum.
Normal - We could have Lightfoot scan Red, except that there still seems to be a scum blocker, so when’s that going to happen? If Suburban tracks him a) are you going to trust SP’s results? b) will being blocked look any different from taking no action? SP as a tracker shouldn’t see people doing things to Red, just Red doing things to other people, right? So if Red, in colour terms, stays indoors, what does that mean? I do actually like the idea of getting some confirmation, but will it work or will we start toMorrow no further forward?
I’m perfectly calm. In my foreign land(s), days usually last 24 hours or 48 hours. 9 hours is plenty of time from where I come from, assuming people made a bold and mostly unanimous choice.
It’s only here that 9 hours becomes a frighteningly small amount of time. Also, I’m arguing a path where you can remove both vote leaders from suspicion without much vote switching.
Lynch Shadow, scan and track Skeezix, have Skeezix attack MentalGuy or pedescribe or nobody. Then you’ll have your answer.
Bah! I wound up having little time to devote to this game last Night. I still hope to be able to come up with some reasonable analysis before it’s ‘too late’, though.
Okay, on Red Skeezix and what we can do with him tonight:
Since Lightfoot is claimed to no longer be blocked by Inner Stickler, that means the scums (according to Stickler, not Stickler) must block Stickler and kill lightfoot, or block lightfoot and block Skeezix.
The tracker can at least tell that Skeezix didn’t move. Or, Lightfoot can conclude he’s not scum.
If the scums murder him instead, you just saved yourself a bad lynch.
It’s because of all these claimed power roles that the scums have few strong moves tonight.
If they leave Skeezix alone, he can hit who we tell him to. That’s VERY DANGEROUS if he is in fact townie.
So it’s a game of chicken… or they’ve got to block twice and also murder, and also prove Skeezix wasn’t murdering in the process.
This is sort of like chess, there’s only so much the scums can do when they’re pinned by several pieces. They’re pinned to Lightfoot and Skeezix and Suburban Plankton if they’re all townie, and have to deal with Stickler’s defense power as well if he’s townie.
Not enough time to counter them all. They must give up a concession!
Pizza, it seems to me that every one of your plans and analyses automatically assumes that Skeezix is really the Vig. Why do you never question this? He’s done absolutely nothing - save saying “I am a Vig” - to demonstrate his vigginess. Yet you seem congenitally incapable of thinking that he’s lying for some reason. (I think Normal posted something about you and a Vig obsession earlier, but I can’t find it quickly). What’s up with that?
In other news, it seems more likely than not that I’m going to end up with the noose, so I plan to spend my time today compiling my top Scum candidates if I don’t survive. (That said, I’m not giving up by any means, and I hope we make the right decision.)
It’s part of the process of ticking off options and narrowing down who the scums are.
If Red Skeezix is scum, he’s caught and dead very shortly because of the plans I’m describing. As such, I don’t care if I’m wrong here, that’s two dead scums in 3 rounds, with 2 missing murders.
Now, I can easily work with the assumption he’s a vig and determine what that means if so.
Basically, if Red is scum, he’s damned septimus and himself and lost 2 murders for no reason, and I find that unlikely.
Now, he’s also screwed and dead in short order because of it.
So, I can freely examine the other options. Why don’t you want me to do that?
Alright. Dawn toMorrow. One dead town overNight. Lightfoot blocked. SP reports Skeezix did nothing. Skeezix claimes he was blocked. (Shadow was lynched.)
I am scanned townie, and tracked as inactive, and blocked, and the godfather is dead.
Normal helped get rid of septimus and was consistent on that point. Her move was not bussing, it was real.
Why are you focusing on me and Normal Phase? Oh, that’s right, you have no response to my case against you and hate the line of questioning I’m putting forth. You’re wriggling.
No, I’m laughing because you’re so far down Wrong Way Road, I doubt you’ll ever come back. But that’s ok. Lightfoot is still alive and there have been no kills for two nights which hopefully, I had a hand in. If I die today, tonight or tomorrow, I’ll feel that I fought the good fight. And I’ll look forward to your apology when I flip. But answer me this. If I’m scum, why haven’t I been counterclaimed?
It’s a closed setup, counterclaim by doctor is not guaranteed. And by the way, mister Cleric with the arcane spells who drains strength and causes headaches, if you are scum, being a cleric wouldn’t be much of a cover role if there was a real doctor.
Your role, if scum, is a COVER. It’s bad cover if there’s a real doctor.
Laugh at me all day long. I’m examining options, something you’re not doing.
Got distracted by chess. Verdict: Lots of room for improvement.
Not really, given that the color of Suburban’s reported block precisely matches Shadow’s/Ed’s color. Yet Inner said that Ed himself was blocked. Something’s wrong here that has nothing to do with Red Skeezix.
(Unless, it just occurred to me, there is an order of actions we’re not privy to. If would explain some things (though not Suburban’s delayed result) if Ed’s block took priority over Inner’s.
Yay for providing suspects’ excuses for them …)
Regardless, though, the block on Suburban cannot be anyone but Ed, unless Shadow (along with SP?) is doing some bizarrely creative lying. Otherwise we’ve just created the additional roleblocker you say we should not believe (with less justification) exists to have blocked Red last night.
Yes, though at least Red did vote for Septimus.
Same thing – this is presuming the existence of a roelblocker who acted only once, with the same color but not the same effect as Shadow used on Red later, and who has otherwise never been seen.
How is this supposed to be a more conservative guess than the one that makes Red a townie?
Thing is, again, I think SP - the obvious target by color for Ed’s block – was in fact someone who Ed would have been very likely TO block. Ed double-voted Septimus, one of Pizza’s suspects. A big leap of confidence, giving the timing. And SP was Pizza’s other suspect.
I just don’t get how you’re ascribing this to the scum.
Inner migth bea scum roleblocker, but anyway.
As I’ve stated, I think the most likely motive for no kill on n3 if Red is town was simply to make the frame more convincing. Adn I think there was sufficient motive for a scum Shadowfacts to have done something as risky as this. It is possible they would have taken a pot shot at a probably-protected LF also, on the odds a town doc was using the WIFOM to protect elsewhere (and figuring if they got through and undermined the frame, hey win anyway), but it still would have to have been a frame as primary motive.
The color is wrong for Shadow to have blocked either LF or Red. One possibility is that with only three living scum, one full-time roleblocker to handle LF, and one newly leveled-up part-timer to handle Red – that Shadowfacts would by default become the scum killer. In that scenario he woudl not be able to risk claiming a “block” of any unknown player, lest he risk contradiction. Hence his choosing Pizza as his “target”.
I can’t explain the lack of kill last night in any sense, really, no matter who is scum and who isn’t.
I don’t see any more logic for a scum Red explaining the no-kill than a scum Shadow. You posit Red would have had some reason not to kill, but you don’t provide it.
No - my point is precisely that it’s *not *the only option. There’s no point in putting him to the test if the results won’t mean anything. We get nowhere.
Okay, when you die tonight, and flip townie, my theory goes out the window. And by the way if you die, and flip townie, that means that Lightfoot is still alive. I trust her way more than you. And on that day, which will never come, I’ll be proven wrong and I’ll be examining other options.
The fact that you’re so certain you won’t be murdered and have been preparing defenses against the lynch in such a scenario tells me you’re a lying liar who lies.
Even if they block lightfoot, block Skeezix, and murder you and prove me wrong, Suburban Plankton tracking Skeezix also proves that he wasn’t blocking or murdering anyone. And it means that Skeezix has another chance to vig that night, and Lightfoot is still around to investigate, and SP is still around to track.
Really, I’m not sensing much of a loss if you die. I encourage it. Remember, you can’t even defend anyone anymore because the “scums” can block you and murder whoever they wish.
Your role, if townie, is now relegated to being a waste of a scum block. I invite that to keep happening so Skeezix can murder and Suburban can track and Lightfoot can investigate.
Too many threats for the scums to stop. And I don’t believe you’re townie. The moves will either remove that theory or prove it conclusively.
