Here’s something very interesting for you guys to chew on.
That is one hell of a prediction.
I really would have *assumed *that he *didn’t pull off a vig kill *and that the scums in fact pulled off a kill on Suburban while they blocked Stickler, and Red was inactive.
That, is, one, hell, of, a, prediction.
This indicates to me that choie might have inside knowledge that the kill on Plankton was a **vigilante **kill, not a Lord of Slaughter kill. That would indicate to me that she is, indeed, a scumbag suffering from perfect information syndrome. Or she’s a far more clever player than I am, it seems.
If Red is scum then I doubt that choie is. However, if Red is not scum, choie probably is.
(I think? Do I really think they both are? No. Because if choie flips scum, then Red is going to get lynched tomorrow when he doesn’t kill himself. This is terrible strategy.)
I leave the decision in your hands. I really, really did not expect Red Skeezix to have performed a vig-kill last night, and the only way he did so as a townie would have been if he sent it in in advance. However, the beguiler role description and this nugget from choie steadies my hand.
I’m shaken, and I’m far less confident. I still think it could be choie, but if it is not, then it probably is Red Skeezix, and we will find out in short order.
**As for what I’d advise… **
[ul]
[li]If **choie **flips scum, you destroy Hirka or Diver ASAP.[/li][li]If **choie **does not, and **Red **does not, then it probably still is **Hirka **or Diver.[/li][li]If choie does not and Red does, then look at the folks trying to save him right now.[/li][/ul]
As for who to lynch, I still maintain that the scumbags were pushing Skeezix toward his death before septimus died and afterward, and at least I know that a townie pushed for choie for death. I’d bet on the townie’s judgment over the scum’s, because the scums know exactly what to do to make you die, even if it means WIFOM.
At this point I am expecting more bad news is coming for us. Keep your eyes on Hirka and Diver regardless, but if you have to lynch Red Skeezix tomorrow and he flips scum, you’ve got a MUCH better read on who his teammates are.
If choie is scum, it’s possible they lose their ability to roleblock Skeezix or Inner, and then either Inner survives or Skeezix does. I’d prefer Inner survives so I feel it would be best to allow Skeezix to self-vig, and Inner should protect himself.
If I’ve been a big fat idiot ever since septimus died, then at least you guys will have someone to blame if this all goes south. I can accept that blame, too. That said if Red Skeezix was townie, then all the attempts to lynch anyone but Skeezix were a good idea, we just got doubly unlucky that not only was Skeezix not mafia, but the counterwagons weren’t either. And that means we’ve been severely outplayed, and that means we deserve the loss anyway.
I need to see choie or Hirka or Diver’s card to move forward, and some of you need to see Skeezix’ card. Either lynch could be good, either lynch could be bad. If choie hadn’t acted the way she acted all game, and then today, I might be happier about reversing and saying be done with Skeezix, but if Skeezix is townie, choie looks much, much worse. And I still think Skeezix is townie, though I’ve become far less certain.
If the scumbags only have daykills, you actually have a solid chance of winning the game anyway because of your leads, your confirmed townies, your more trustworthy townies, and only 1 non-lynch kill per phase after Skeezix’ death.
