Thank you (though I hope you’re not trying to snuggle me! ;)) and please do post your thoughts on each candidate, even the ones who seem beyond reproach. I worry that we’ve been taking folks for granted as Town and we might be in deep trouble because of it.
Tomorrow night? Oh dear. Well, hurry back whenever you can. It does seem like you do tend to avoid giving your opinions on everyone, which is largely what caused Normal to look at you askance. I feel her opinions must carry some gravitas, as a good player and a now-confirmed Townie, so I’m inclined to give you a raised eyebrow for yet another delay.
Edited while posting - oh now you’ve added a complete voting chart. Thank you! Eyebrow lowered slightly. But I would almost rather hear your suspicions than read the charts. Is that weird? It’s just that we can all compile data (though admittedly we all don’t), but no one can share what’s in your head but you.
Anyway I really can’t say I blame you for not being certain about people, especially now. Gotta say the Hirka reveal as Townie has really knocked me for a loop. So has Inner’s disappearance and pedescribe’s 3rd-partydom. I’m looking at past votes and past unvotes and who people have suspected or not suspected and my mind’s a hopeless jumble, going back and forth on everyone.
I was in Ten Little Indians in high school and now I feel like I’m reliving that play – you know, where one by one the victims are killed, and one by one the survivors have to rethink their previous suspicions?
My next post will be more substantive. I want to look over those voting charts, especially for Day 4, which was missing/incorrect before. Thanks again for compiling them, MentalGuy. Whether friend or foe, your work has been very useful.
Oops MentalGuy, you copied my bad math on Day Seven: gnarlycharlie only received one vote – Stanislaus was the only one to vote the gnarlster, and it wasn’t a double-vote.
P.S. Erm… this isn’t the substantive post I promised, obviously.
I’m sorry, DnDers. Shiny, new game was shiny. I did check in here but not much was happening. As much my fault as anyone’s.
Two dead overnight. At least we don’t have to wonder about pedescribe any more.
If there are 5 townies, 2 scum left:
mislynch today and someone is killed tonight ->
3 townies, 2 scum left, which would be LYLO.
If we lynch scum today, and someone is killed at night ->
4 townies, 1 scum ->
lynch correctly and Town wins.
but
mislynch + Nightkill ->
2 townies, 1 scum, i.e. LYLO
Either way, we are one mislynch away from LYLO.
I have a very busy few days coming up. I will try to put something up tonight, but then I’ll be away till Saturday.
We don’t have much data to go on from yesterday. The hijinks from the Day before might yield more info. At this point I am most suspicious of Mental Guy, gnarly and choie. I don’t think Inner is scum (claimed Doc) and I think Stanislaus and USC Diver are less likely to be, because of their voting records. If someone wants to put a case together on them, I will look at it, but I am looking more at the other three.
I don’t quite know what to make of choie’s change in behaviour over the last couple of days. It’s like she suddenly decided to play, whereas before she was on a tangent to everything that was happening. I’m glad she is playing, but the timing of it (once she started getting votes) makes me dubious. I need to go back and check her early game, and how she reacted to being voted before, though I think she just kinda disappeared before.
Hi Weedy. I actually already explained why I started playing more actively. Basically because all y’all started playing a whole lot less, and simultaneously I was feeling more confident (alas, too confident) of my instincts in the game due to some correct guesses, which I won’t bother repeating because I’m sure everyone’s sick of hearing my once shiny guessing record – which got a big ol’ scratch in it with Hirka.
Anyway. I just took a couple of hours to compile this list of the surviving members’ chronological vote records. I have no idea if it’s helpful but what the hell. It did highlight a few oddities to me, but I’m just not sure. There are two versions: first, organized by survivor; second, organized by Day. Gonna spoiler it 'cause it’s big, and also post the second half in my next post.
INDIVIDUAL SURVIVOR VOTING RECORDS (alpha order)
(Note: third-party pedescribe is listed in brown.)
This time I’m not spoilering it 'cause I think it’ll be useful to see the whole thing at once. At least, I hope to God this is useful to somebody, somewhere, other than myself. I know the other method of listing everyone’s votes is more typical, but I thought just listing the remaining players might come in handy too.
As before, third-party pedescribe is listed in brown. Also, I figured I’d include the post # span for each Day. This way we can see generally how late or early people voted.
Without further ado, please bear witness to my descent into madness, or at least a poor imitation of John Nash in A Beautiful Mind!
(Annnd there you go. Yeesh, I think I’m being haunted by pizza. For a couple of reasons, one of which is the fact that it’s the middle of the night and I’m talking to myself, posting long charts – indeed, similar to his Day-by-Day charts of a couple of Days ago. Then there’s the other reason I think he’s haunting me… But more on that after I post this and get some sleep.)
Oh – darnit, one more thing I want to set down on “paper” before I go to sleep and forget it.
I have the feeling that Day Five votes are especially significant to analyze. To repeat Normal’s list (though fixing her “plus two votes from choie” which I’m not entirely sure why she used that format for me):
The reason I think this is especially useful is that we can easily separate the standalone votes from known townies, who tended to cluster together (rather conveniently for surviving townie purposes, in fact!). So in other words, to find our remaining Lords of Slaughter, we only have to sniff 'em out from within the two Red Skeezix and ShadowFacts factions:
Now obviously it’s very likely that some scummy folks voted for Red Skeezix, and obviously townies voted for ShadowFacts. But I think doing some analysis of this pair of vote clusters could well be our best ticket to winnowing things down.
Does anyone else agree or is this just me rambling?
DAMN IT TO HELL I messed up the above reference to my votes and then missed the edit window. I know all too well that I did not double-vote for Red Skeezix, alas; for some reason Normal had me down as “plus two votes from choie” and I stupidly copied that out. Please ignore the above and look at this corrected list for Day Five:
I’m sorry for the false impression. Hopefully this one I’ll get right, sigh.
Someone may want to remove the known (late lamented) townies, and/or the known (late unlamented) scum. But I’m done for the night as I’m increasingly useless. Sorry again.
Vote analysis really comes into its own at this point.
On the numbers: with 7 of us left (well done for killing off pede, mods!) it’s either 4-3 (!) or 5-2.
If it’s 5-2, we’ve got one more mislynch before we’re at LyLo at 3-2. So we’ve got at best two chances to get it right.
Day 5 votes seem to put us into two groups: {USCDiver, Stanislaus, choie} and {gnarlycharlie, MentalGuy, Weedy, Inner Stickler}. But that is making the assumption that the remaining scum didn’t both/all bus Skeezix or try to dump Shadow. If they aren’t split, I think the latter option is more likely. (If there are 3 left, I’m almost certain they’ll split 1-Red, 2-Shadow).
I’m going to start by repeating my vote on gnarly from yesterDay (Quoting the summary, please link back to read the case with nested quotes):
In addition to that, looking at his votes from earlier days shows that he:
a) voted Shadow on Day 4, when both Red and septimus were on the table and
b) had voted septimus on Day 3, when he was looking super-scummy for his last-minute D2 vote shenanigans. So why not repeat that on Day 4? Especially as he’s repeated votes for choie and Diver since? I think he was bussing an exposed septimus, then when septimus made it through the day tried to keep things going by throwing mud at Shadow.
Choie, I know what you said, I just don’t know whether to believe it. You have this honest open air about you, but your play is wildly inconsistent. This recent bout of engaged play didn’t start when it got quiet, it started when ATPG double voted you. Why did you vote Lightfoot, instead of addressing the Shadowfacts, Red Skeezix, Septimus dilemma? A pressure vote, what does that mean?
I reviewed gnarlycharlie’s posts. I don’t feel he has really done a lot, in terms of analysis, or voting for scum. The ongoing vote on USCDiver is kinda lazy; it stems from USC Diver voting ATPG on Day 2, after ATPG challenged people to. Not that that was a great vote by Diver, but doesn’t exactly justify gnarly voting him several days later.
Gnarly and choie don’t seem to be on the same side, and I still need to check back to choie’s earlier play. I may yet get time tomorrow for that.
Glad to hear from you guys, I was going a bit stir-crazy last night as you can probably tell.
If it’s 4-3 I fear we are royally, royally screwed. But it seems hard to believe that the game would have 21 players consisting of fifteen Townies, five Scum and one 3rd party. Considering the double-voting mechanic also puts us at a disadvantage (IMO), that would indicate the mods putting not just their finger but their whole arm on the scale in order to balance things in favor of Scum.
Yeah, I don’t think we can safely assume that all the remaining Lords voted for ShadowFacts. That would be too facile.
Re: gnarlycharlie:
That’s been my thinking since I started to suspect him. And for some reason now I can’t find the post that made me say yesterday that he was pinging me less. It was something about his goodnaturedness in accepting a hypothetical where he was scum… I dunno, it read as quite open/honest to me. But I’ll be damned if I can find it. (Of course I made the mistake of doing a search for all his posts on the SDMB rather than just this thread, which made it tough as he is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more active in the Mystery Mafia thread than he’s ever been here.
Theory: If his normal gameplay is to be active, then maybe he’s spending his activity over at the scum board.
Other theory: Maybe he’s just playing a different role there. Maybe he’s active over there 'cause he’s scum, and inactive here 'cause he’s town. Admittedly that seems counterintuitive to me but who the hell knows.
Side note: I really think it sucks that some remaining players seem to be mentally bailing on our game before it reaches its conclusion. (/shakes fist at the siren song of Gadarene)
Actually I think it mostly started shortly after the Night in which ShadowFacts was confirmed as town – which simultaneously appeared* to confirm Inner Stickler as town – as well as Suburban Plankton’s murder and (by inference) being revealed as Town.
I was angry with pizza for having spent almost the entire game slurring Suburban (hell even after Suburbans death he was coming up with excuses why Red may have vigged Suburban!), not to mention spending the previous Day smearing Inner Stickler (who was now appearing to be confirmed as Town via Suburban’s now-trustworthy ranger skillz), and having believed Red Skeezix over Shadow.
I’d believed he was wrong on all three of these guys (Shadow, Suburban & Inner) and that Night proved me correct. Presumably*. So my confidence was raised along with my hackles, and I was ready to start speaking out. Helped a bit that ShadowFacts himself had mentioned that he thought I needed to participate more. What can I say, somehow that influenced me too.
Then once pizza was lynched and during the weekend everyone went into hiding, I started opening my yap even more.
A lot of the ShadowFacts/Red Skeezix dilemma was going right over my head. I was looking around and it was bugging me that everyone was taking LightFoot’s claim as gospel, despite the fact that she hadn’t produced a single piece of evidence of her investigatory powers other than (eventually) confirming pizza, which to me – because at the time I suspected pizza – seemed like scum confirming scum.
I wanted to hear more from LightFoot and was hoping to engender some more conversation about how believable her claim was. So I tossed in the vote in that vain hope.
In short, because I was a total idiot. The scary thing is? I seem to be going down that route again, because the person I’m now most suspecting is a similarly untouchable person, and just as before, I may well be completely off-the-rails and turning totally paranoid.*
I fear you may not get much help from my earlier play. There was little of substance except for me flailing around grasping for purchase.
Edited to add on preview: I absolutely appreciate that you haven’t bailed here, Astral. I think it’s churlish of the others to have done so.
(I know I bring up movies a lot, but I have to say I’m starting to feel like Jimmy Stewart filibustering in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, where you’re the kindly President of the Senate who remains impartial yet amused by what Stewart is trying to accomplish.)
==========================
Okay. Here’s where I make a very dangerous, risky case. Risky to myself, because if I’m wrong there’s no way I won’t be lynched for it. And if I’m wrong, I probably should be lynched.
I want to talk about the man walking around De’endee with a medical license from a school in Grenada and a bag full of bottles of Dr. Pirelli’s Miracle Elixir.
Yes, Inner Stickler, our town doctor.
“But he’s confirmed,” everyone will say. “Heck, you yourself gloated to pizza that he’d been confirmed by Suburban Plankton!”
Yes. I know. And I’m not saying I am finding him guilty. This is at the most a FOS, and a tentative one at that. I just want to make absolutely, positively certain that we’re crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s where he’s concerned.
Here’s the thing. Looking back on his voting posts, and patterns, I think he’s been a really strange player. With few exceptions, his votes have little to no explanations to them – many of them come out of nowhere and literally consist of just vote ______. Let’s take a look at the history I compiled last night, this time with quotes:
============================== DAY ONE:
No vote.
============================== DAY TWO:
#610: voted Silver Jan (Note: I was wrong on the number he actually voted for her in #609, but forgot to use the right color.)
**Comment: **Okay, here there is some context for his vote, and it’s certainly a positive that he disagrees with Red Skeezix. Voting for Silver Jan on the second day is a null tell, IMO. She really did look bad and a lot of us thought so. Not a bad post.
============================== DAY THREE:
#888: voted septimus
Comment: ooh, he’s voting septimus this early. Must be town, right? But then, with three minutes left on the shot clock:
#1210: unvoted septimus
#1210: voted TexCat 2x (lock)
Comment: This is his whole post. Literally, coming at three minutes to EOD. Now at this point I admit it was TexCat 10 to septimus 6. TexCat was clearly aimed for the gallows. But certainly IS’s double-vote made it impossible for enough people to switch the count (with three minutes left in the day).
Of course, one can definitely make the argument that if he’d stuck with septimus he’d have looked a lot better afterward, boosting his cred. On the other hand, maybe saving septimus on that day was important enough to make that credibility sacrifice. There was an outside chance that one or two others could switch their votes back to septimus. WIFOM, I know. But I really don’t like the sudden switch with 3 minutes left.
============================== DAY FOUR:
#1440: voted septimus 2x (lock) (note: I must’ve copied down the post number wrong here, it’s #1470)
Comment: I think this is kind of a null-tell here, despite it being an anti-septimus vote. By this time it was clear that the Official Bussing of Septimus had begun, and there was no going back. I think the Lords met in their Star Chamber early that Day, or even the previous Night, and decided that the ultimate shock play was necessary: septimus would be bussed to really screw with our minds and to lend credibility to several scummy folks.
Also, who was the other prime candidate for lynching that Day? Red Skeezix. This is not insignificant. As we’ll see, seems like Inner would be determined to save Red Skeezix for the next two Days.
============================== DAY FIVE:
#1978: voted ShadowFacts 2x (lock)
Comment: Well, that’s kind of a “famous last words” sorta quote, isn’t it? A null tell, as anyone can make a mistake. BTW, he was talking to pizza there.
However… again, this was in a tight race of ShadowFacts vs. Red Skeezix. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and all, but… read on.
============================== DAY SIX:
#2378: voted choie 2x (lock)
Comment: Yup, that’s it. the whole post. After a few others fall into pizza’s diatribe against me, Inner follows suit. Meaning that he must have swallowed pizza’s theory whole and locks on me, apparently believing me more scummy-looking than Red freakin’ Skeezix, even though ShadowFacts had been proven Town by that point and thus trustworthy in his word against Red. Seriously??
Look, I know you guys don’t know I’m town. I’m trying really hard to not whine “Geeze I’m definitely town and he voted me over Red, ergo he MUST be scum!” because that argument won’t convince anyone.
But goddamnit, as weird as my gameplay has probably seemed to some or maybe most of y’all, I just cannot believe that people-- especially someone like Inner Stickler who was in that semi-codependent triad of him, Shadow and Suburban and who should have at least strongly suspected Red by that point – I cannot believe he genuinely believed I looked guiltier and more scummy than Red freakin’ Skeezix! I just… it boggles the mind.
Then again, even Normal, a known townie, briefly considered this. So maybe my mind will just have to boggle.
============================== DAY SEVEN:
No vote
Comment: And not just no vote. But no discussion. Nothing. Thus endeth his activity in this game, pretty much. The one power town player we have remaining (I assume) takes no position whatsoever in a vital vote? I guess if he really was scum, he kinda didn’t need to, we were all jumping off the cliff on Hirka like the idiot lemmings we were (especially me).
The last thing he said to us was after I asked him why he protected pizza rather than himself. The thing about pizza is that at this point, he wasn’t really helping Town very much (though ironically if I’m right about Inner now, he was right after all!). For that matter, why would the Lords go after pizza rather than Inner Stickler in the first place?
That was at Dawn of Day Seven. Since then, as I said, he’s disappeared completely, not discussing, not voting at all during Day 7, Night 8, or now the start of Day 8.
Which is the weirdest thing of all, in a way. He hasn’t said anything about his activity last Night. Normal is murdered and we don’t hear from the town doc? Did he at least try to protect her? Did he self-protect? (An understandable strategy.) We have no idea, because he Ain’t Talking.
It’s not as if he hasn’t been around, by the way. For the past week he’s been posting aplenty in the Mystery Mafia thread.
==============================
So those are my questions re: his activity here. I know that there are significant reasons why my dumbass suspicions really are dumbass. Thus I’ll bring up some of them. If you guys have others and can pull me down off this ledge, please do!
First and foremost against this utterly crackpot theory of mine is that there’s been no counterclaim against Inner Stickler. Which I guess would only happen if we had no doc at all, which is impossible, isn’t it? Unless… unless someone here who’s claiming vanilla is secretly the Doc. Is that at all possible? I haven’t wanted to bring it up lest I inadvertently flush out a very savvy, secretive Doc. But no, that doesn’t even make sense, because surely the Lords would know there’s a real roleblocker among us somewhere. Or do they?
Second, and also significantly, is that confirmation from Suburban Plankton that he saw Inner performing a “helpful” spell.
Surely this meant helpful to town, right? But… is it at all possible that it didn’t? Would the mods be that ambiguous? I kinda doubt it. Look at how quickly Astral was to clarify that the “H.A.” was innocent color, and that Hirka’s Invoker role was just NPC color, not a real power role.
==============================
Sigh. I guess I pretty much know I’m spinning wild-ass theories. Which is why I’m worried that I’ve been possessed by the Ghost of Pizzas Past. But I really want to hear from Stanislaus (especially him) and everyone else as to whether there’s any, even the slightest, possibility that we’ve been wrong about Inner.
And believe me, I don’t want this to be true, the way I was throwing his innocence in pizza’s face. I want us to have a doc. I just can’t fathom why Inner Stickler has abandoned us and is playing so very strangely.
Anyway, there ya go. That’s my oh-so-brilliant harebrained tinfoil hat theory du jour. I guess that’s a FOS at Inner Stickler.
Everyone else may now commence laughing their asses off at my tinfoilhatdom. Or launch right into a chorus of vote choies for my smudging an obvious townie.
I understand the feeling choie (heck right before Normal was killed I was going through scenarios of how she might be scum), but at this point there is no way I will be voting for Inner Stickler. I may not like his play, but I have no reason to think he is not the Town doc. If he did pull off a deception, then I will tip my hat to his scummy self when the game is over.
And I am working on my cases, but my son is commanding the color guard at the volleyball game tonight and I have to be leaving, so it may be a while before I am back on tonight.
Choie, what do you mean, it went over your head? You had some pretty strong opinions on Red Skeezix later. This clueless newbie thing won’t fly, because you have shown abundantly over the past couple of days that you are not at all. Newbie, yes, but you have plenty of ideas and opinions.
I know what you mean about Inner Stickler posts, but if he wasn’t the doc, surely someone would have counterclaimed him. Unless there is no doc at all, but, … um… I dunno. I thought they were standard equipment in Mafia games. Pretty much everyone has assumed we have a doc. There was discussion over whether he was paranoid or not, but not whether there is one.
Not counter-claiming, at this point, would not be savvy, it would be suicidal. How can we lynch Inner if we think he is the Doc? Choie, if you yourself are the doc, then you need to claim right now, because otherwise scum will win this game.
I think Inner should be back today, seeing as he got killed out of the other game last night.
I have a couple of questions for gnarly.
Do you think Diver is one of the remaining scum, or was that just a convenient place to vote?
When Red Skeezix posted the remorseful claim, you seemed to believe it straight away. Were you in any doubt, or did you just accept it? I’m just wondering what your thinking was, at the time.
USCDiver - Reading Diver’s posts, I don’t really get a read one way or the other, but on Day 3 he voted septimus to put him up 6 to 4 when he could have voted TexCat to create a 3 way tie or voted for ShadowFacts to give ShadowFacts the lead. He consistently goes after Red Skeezix after that.
GnarlyCharlie - Reading Charlie’s posts, I get more of a vibe that he is trying to “hide in plain sight”. I know I said that early in the game, but even looking at his posts after that, I still get that feeling somewhat. I don’t know that I would call his vote record “scummy”, but it also appears for the most part as just there to make it look like he is taking part. The best piece of evidence in his favor is his Day 3 vote on septimus, but he was the fourth vote at the time and Shadow only had one vote, and TexCat did not have any, so it didn’t really look like there were any alternative wagons to jump on. I plan on quoting some on Charlie’s post later, but right now I want to look at the other players.
Weedy - I find Weedy’s vote record worse than her posts, but her defense of septimus after his last minute save does raise suspicions. Her vote record is what makes me most suspicious. She was on the Jan wagon on Day 2, though I don’t know if a third scum would have jumped on there with Red and septimus or not. On Day 3, her first vote on TexCat puts TexCat in tie with septimus, then her second votes helps insure TexCat’s demise. She says she was saving Shadow, but it also protected septimus. She joined the septimus wagon on Day 4. I would say I find Weedy more suspicious than USCDiver, but not as much as GnarlyCharlie. (And Weedy, if you are a man I apologize).
Stanislaus - I haven’t really had any suspicion of Stanislaus except for his case against me. I felt that he was misrepresenting in some cases. Other than that I haven’t really found his posts scummy (but I haven’t went back and reread them like I just did with the above players). His voting record is fairly clean. He was on the Kelly wagon on Day 1, but so were at least 6 Townies. He was early on the septimus wagon Day 3, and moved off of Red to septimus on Day 4, then stuck with Red on Day 5. Other than Inner, I think Stanislaus will be the last player to receive a vote from me.
choie -
I am out of time for tonight. I will examine choie’s play more closely tomorrow. Just based on what I remember, though, I think I would have a hard time deciding between her and Weedy. Vote GnarlyCharlie
Oh I completely understand. Frankly I have this dread fear that the two final Lords are Inner and Stanislaus, in which case we’re as screwed as screwed can be.
No, I don’t really expect anyone to vote against our only claimed Doc. What I’m hoping for is just to get this nagging doubt out of my head, really. I’ve felt all game that there were some people whose towniness was accepted wholeheartedly – and as it turns out, this was the correct path for most of 'em (Normal, pizza, LightFoot). The remaining two “oh they’re definitely townies, 99 and 1/4 percent pure” folks according to Received Wisdom throughout most of the game have been Stanislaus and Inner. It may be my unattractively truculent side coming out, but part of me always chafes a bit at things like that, and somehow I just feel that one of the “yes they’re definitely townie” people is just a very, very good scum.
Sadly, because I don’t have a refined scumometer, I kind of have to listen to what others are saying. It’s a conundrum for me.
I do, and thank you, but to be honest what I don’t seem to grok in this game is the power roles issue. Sure, I can deal with counting/analyzing votes (which is why I’ve focused on charts so much) and reading what people’s opinions are and judging psychology and all that jazz; I’m decent enough with that, it’s relatively straightforward.
But for whatever reason, when people start talking about who’s roleblocking who and how many blocks occured when and which of us protected whom from what arcane or divine spell… I start hearing white noise. And that’s what most of the talk surrounding ShadowFacts, Red Skeezix, Inner Stickler and Suburban focused on. I blushingly admit that I tried, I really tried, to read those posts and understand them, but it just felt too much for me. That’s when I felt my least confident in this game, and I started to lurk and just hope to God that somehow some penny would drop in my brain and it would all make sense.
I think that’s another reason I’m a little more comfortable now. The power roles seem to be reduced to very very few now; there’s our putative town doc, who protects people; and at least one scum roleblocker, it would appear, assuming Inner is telling the truth (as he probably is). The scum godfather and the assassin, the town tracker, and the, um, whatever the combo platter of ShadowFacts and special ed were (I forget)… they’re all gone. So there’s been less talk that’s over my head, and I feel more comfy talking about what votes look hinky and who sounded defensive and so on.
Man, I’d be positively thrilled with a game where there were no power roles whatsoever. But I don’t know if there exists a Mafia game like that.
Yeah, that’s what I figured is the primary objection to my pie-in-the-sky theory. It doesn’t make sense for there not to have been a protector on our side. And if it wasn’t Inner, why wouldn’t the other person have mentioned long ago how suspicious s/he was of Inner’s claim?
The only thing I was thinking was if we’d had a very savvy, very stealthy player who was trying like hell to stay under the radar of the scums. But even that doesn’t make sense because the Lords would know we have someone protecting others, so it’s hardly a secret. (Though the person’s identity would be a secret… so I guess that’s a counterargument.) But as you rightly say, it probably would be suicidal not to come clean. Or would it? Isn’t that what the scum would want us to think? Maybe the person hasn’t come forward because they haven’t been suspected seriously yet.
Ugh I’m beginning to hear that white noise again…
Good God, it’s not me! Holy cow, we would be in some seriously bad straits if I had any kind of power role!
But I don’t know, Weedy. If there really is an alternate doc, and he’s not been sussed yet, I kinda don’t think he should come forward – unless he’s in danger of a lynch. If that’s not the case, then what do we have to gain from learning who he is? We can set Inner aside (if he’s not the doc), can’t we, and if we ever do get an alternate claim, see what we’ll see and who comes across as more believable. Or is that bad strategy? It just seems to make sense.
Oy veh is mir, this is a black day for De’endee – the fact that one of the people left who’s trying to come up with strategy is the person who’s most in over her head! Where is everyone else, why aren’t they helping us???
Well, I hate to say this, but: good. I’m glad they killed him. He’s needed over here, post haste. I really want his version of what happened last Night.
guilty as charged. Pizza’s posts while helpful overwhelmed me. now that he’s gone i have to go over everything like choie has done.
ha ha ha! trying to meta me, huh? the main reason i’m more active there is because i was accused of being scum and had to spend a lot of time defending myself. i haven’t done much analysis in that game either. i promise not to play four games simultaneously ever again. :smack:
offhand, he’s on my list. i must say though that i haven’t voted for him toDay. i did earlier in the game.
i totally believed it. i fell for it hook, line and sinker.
In light of **Hirka’s **flipping town, I’m much less suspicious of choie now. I looked back at Normal’s case against **MentalGuy **and I think it’s a decent enough place to start the day. The modkill of **pedescribe ** obviously eliminates his wildcard but it does not buy us an additional mislynch, so there is really little change in when we get to LyLo
Yes indeed, Ten Little Indians is her adaptation of And Then There Were None. Which really does feel like the game we’re playing now!
Hmm, I thought I read that one and I don’t remember the lack of power roles, or that it was a disaster! You’re probably being too hard on yourself. Is that the one that was supposed to be very Newbie-friendly? I do remember that some newbies who played it still felt at a loss since there was so much meta-discussion about previous games.
Okay, now to serious stuff. My thoughts on the survivors:
That missing 10% is that truculent/paranoid side of myself I mentioned earlier. I think he’s gotten an easy ride here, maybe too easy, with almost no one doing any real suspecting of him. Then again? There doesn’t appear to be any reason to suspect him. So as others including myself have said, if he’s really scum? He’s earned his win.
I have to agree with this. I’m finding USCDiver’s overall votes to be very solid and reasonable.
So why only 70% trustworthy to me? He gets a much lower townie score than Stanislaus because he has been a little less solid, and there’s that inkling that I find it hard to believe that no scummy Lords voted for Red Skeezix the day ShadowFacts got the noose. So since I’m town, and Stanislaus is very likely town, the only remaining survivor on the list for Day Five’s Red vote is USCDiver. Process of elimination says the scum would be him… assuming this theory is correct OR the Stanislaus dark horse theory isn’t correct.
More on the negative side? Oddly enough, he drops down a few more trustworthy percentage points for this line in his latest post:
I know I should be happy about this, and yet… I don’t understand the mindset. To someone who genuinely doesn’t know whether I’m scum or town, Hirka’s flipping town despite my vote for him, in fact was the only nimrod to double-vote him yesterDay, should make me seen more scummy, shouldn’t it?
So despite my initial reaction to reading this line from Diver (which was “yay! My true good intentions are understood despite my stupidly bad judgment!”), I quickly began to feel a certain doubt. Is Diver trying to get on my good side? Y’know, this “snuggling” thing that we’ve been talking about?
*I guess my question for Diver is: why the heck does Hirka flipping town make me seem less guilty? *
All this said, I’m still putting Diver on the Town side of the scale.
Yeah. Every one of those 55 percentage points is due to the fact that just about everyone else (known townies) believed him, and the fact that there’s been no counterclaim, and the fact that we almost certainly must have a doctor of some kind in this game.
Where he loses 45 percentage points for me is because of everything I elaborated on above. His apparent trust in Red Skeezix, Day after Day. The last-minute TexCat vote saving septimus. And his weird disappearance after dawn of Day Seven, not voting or even discussing, much less appearing after Night Eight to explain his side of what happened once Normal was killed. Someone with such a major power role should be far more invested in this game, I would think. And now I hear he’s dead in the other game and he still hasn’t turned up here? WTFBBQ?
One more thing: I just noticed another something interesting in one of the quotes I mentioned above, from very early in the game, bolding mine:
So he mentions that in the very last game he played, he was a paranoid doctor. It kinda seems surprising and coincidental that our mods – one of whom (Astral) obviously played in that same game with Inner – would have given him the same exact role, doesn’t it? (On the other hand, maybe they did it for precisely this meta reason: it’s a great double-fakeout. People wouldn’t be expecting him to repeat a role. Also, would a scummy Inner have mentioned a paranoid doc if he were going to later fake the role?
Oy back and forth, back and forth.. I know it’s tasteless and odorless but I’m beginning to smell Iocane Powder here.)
Anyway, despite all this, I feel morally obligated to assume that he’s Town. His faking the role would be one hell of a gambit to pull, even greater than septimus’s bussing and Red Skeezix’s Remorseful Vig gambit. And we appear to have no alternative doc. So… yeah. I’m not voting against him at this point, no way.
This is a toughie for me. Earlier I defended his voting record because he seemed to agree with me on a lot of things, but Hirka flipping town has had an impact on that, which I know is super-hypocritical since I voted Hirka last time around too.
And yet other than that he just doesn’t give me a huge ping, at least, not more than some of the others lower on the list. I’m just… I’m sorry, Normal, if you’re reading this. I am just not convinced. He has delayed giving his thoughts on people till now (though he leaves me in suspense of what he thinks about me, funnily enough) and I feel like I owe Normal the loyalty of voting for him at least once in her memory. If I vote MentalGuy now, it’s a very tentative one and I’m not sure it’ll stick throughout the Day.
I’ll say this, if he’s scum, he’s been very slippery and damn good at it.
============================================ gnarlycharlie - 45% trustworthy. Leaning scum but not convinced of it.
It’s possible that some of my doubt on him has been due to his playing in several games at once, as he’s mentioned above. It doesn’t appear like his head’s been in De’endee, and maybe that’s why he hasn’t done much explaining of his votes or participating as much as he should if he wants to save town as much as the rest of us do. Again, I know this is hypocritical of me since as Weedy mentions, I was mighty quiet earlier in the game too. But I know my motives; I don’t know gnarlycharlie’s. He’s also the one who allegedly bought Red’s shtick “hook, line and sinker,” his hand firmly clasped in Red’s for several days, voting ShadowFacts for two Days straight and then to the point of voting Diver and me, then locking on me when it looked for a while that I was gonna be the sacrificial lamb instead of Red. Now that’s a lot of faith in Red.
In his favor is that yes, for some reason, in looking over his posts the other day, I started finding some genuineness in his words. I’m also doing my best to not rate him lower just because he’s been voting me for a few days running, so in order to avoid that, I’m giving him a few points back.
============================================ Weedy - 35% trustworthy. Leaning more strongly scum but certainly wiling to be convinced otherwise.
I hate this part of the game. I don’t like not trusting people, especially someone as nice as Weedy appears to be. But I do find myself agreeing with MentalGuy’s reading of her posting record. That nefarious TexCat double-vote. The lateish septimus vote when it appeared the attempt to bus Red Skeezix had failed. The ShadowFacts vote to save Red Skeezix (this despite the fact that the Day before she’d at least initially voted Red.
Please bear in mind that what I’m not counting against her is her pushing at me the last few posts, because I think it’s thoroughly understandable to do so. Unlike gnarlycharlie and Diver I’m not getting a sucking-up vibe from Weedy. I respect that because my play has been lousy and I deserve the speculation at this point in the game.
========================================
Sigh. All in all, I’m not happy that no one is pinging me as super-scummy except the one person who we’re officially assuming is beyond reproach. The only reason Stickler isn’t at the bottom of my list is because my argument seems nuts even to me. Either my scumdar is utterly useless, or we’re being played by a couple of real masters. Most likely the former, since I’m not nearly hubristic enough to believe at this point I’m the only one to see through Inner Stickler’s doctor mask. Utter twaddle.
On the positive side, that possibility does please my fiction-writer’s brain: the possibility that I’d been gloating to pizza about Inner’s innocence, only later to start suspecting him once pizza is dead. That pleases my sense of dramatic irony. It would serve me right if I get lynched/murdered and Inner as scum won the game.)
Anyway, since I do need to put some votes on the table – bearing in mind that we still have 48 hours left and these are very shaky votes that can probably easily be swayed – I’ll say:
One weak vote MentalGuy – loyalty vote in memory of Normal
