It could have happened like this:
Red Skeezix is a Town Vig
**ShadowFacts **is a Town JoaT (for lack of a better term)
**LightFoot **is a Town Cop
Red Skeezix attacked **ShadowFacts **last Night, but **ShadowFacts **blocked Red Skeezix.
The Scum tried to kill LightFoot, but failed because the Town Doc (assumed to exist) protected him.
It’s a nice and tidy scenario. Which doesn’t tell us if any or all of it is true.
I’d like to know if **LightFoot **got a result last Night.
[On preview - wrote this before I saw SP’s post.]
There are a lot of elaborate scenarios we can construct, but the bare facts are that
The simplest explanation is that Red is scum and was blocked from killing. For him not to be scum, we have to hypothesise that scum made an unrelated kill attempt, which failed for unrelated reasons. If we go down that route, then the only real option is that, despite Lightfoot being blocked previously, they a) weren’t the ones blocking her, b) thought she might not be being blocked this time and either c) thought that this would mean she wasn’t protected or d) that she *simultaneously *wouldn’t be being protected.
Fat chance. I for one am sticking with Occam.
**
vote Red Skeezix**
Having seen SP’s scenario - it does look tidy, but it does involve scum playing for the outside chance several times over. If they weren’t going for Lightfoot before, why were they doing so now?
Well, yeah, that’s kind of what I was getting at. I find it hard to swallow that there were two failed kills last Night.
Also, why would Scum go for **Lightfoot **when **Shadow **has presented himself as a good target too and was unlikely to have been protected last Night.
Player list, please?
Your logic regarding me also applies to Red Skeezix – if scum, he surely knew you had been suspicious of him and might still be.
Believing he’s scum, what do you think of me?
The thing that bothers me the most about Red Skeezix is still that unvote of Shadowfacts from day two (on reasoning that he didn’t think SF was mafia with Jan, his other votee). I still don’t get that. Shadowfacts wasn’t going to be lynched over Jan that day, so why even bother? It looks ungenuine, and in the context of Red and SF potentially both being scum it makes slightly more sense than otherwise. (Because why would a scum ever unvote a teammate who was in no danger, right?)
Alive
Dead
Because Shadow could be a scum bag who they don’t want to target, blocking blindly trying to hit whoever is protecting Lightfoot, while his LoS buddies try to kill Lightfoot, and they hit the pro-town assassin and now they’re ready to kill said person with the lynch, or, failing that, the murder.
Because Shadow was nearly lynched and could therefore be a tempting lynch target.
There’s two reasons, one for if Shadow is guilty, one for if he’s not. Hope that logic wasn’t too convoluted for you. :rolleyes:
Vote: USCDiver
Two things:
(1) Folks are not pressing ShadowFacts on the vote boosting power. Why?
Surely you don’t think ShadowFacts is a *proven *innocent? You certainly can imagine how this outcome could happen if Shadow and Red are both guilty, or even if it’s just ShadowFacts?
He needs to divest himself of that and NOT use it on himself. I can’t make him do that by myself, and none of us can; he needs to demonstrate that he’s not using it on himself. That should be one of the first priorities for today.
Also a reminder to septimus that his own role claim talks about this assassin role that Skeezix is claiming, and Skeezix has not been counter-claimed.
He still needs to answer questions, though.
(2) Also, Tom Scud is USCDiver, Inner stickler.
Where is Septimus’ role claim?
This is just a clarification since I think you might be confused, Pizza – SF’s vote power is not permanent (or at least not presented as such). He has two uses, but each lasts only a single day.
@ SF – what about the other question? Why didn’t you use the message power yesterday, given you stated a decent interval prior to end of day that you would not be using the vote one? It could have confirmed at least that you possess the powers in question and aren’t pulling a Hail Mary off a Janitor-provided role PM.
OK, 16 alive, at most 5 scum I’d think; Shadow’s extra vote if scum make sthem equivalent to six right now. If RS is lynched and is a townie, tomorrow’s quota should be 9 to 5 (6). So not game over, though very close to it. Pizza, what do you think that calculation does to the risk that Shadow is outright lying about Red, and knowingly so? (Like a scenario where scum have an investigator, got Red’s role, and either refrained from killing or shot at a protected Lightfoot “jsut in case” so as to make it more plausible that Red is actually scum?)
That non-existent night one kill is still bugging me.
I’ll vote Shadowfacts happily, but do you really see a point? That one’s all but lost as things stand. Most of the townies aren’t going to risk that Shadow is correct. Adn the scum, if Shadow is also one, arent’ going to want to screw up the plan by bucking the trend.
But whatever –
voet: shadowfacts
This is either the worst case of Cassandra I’ve ever had or the worst case of confirmation bias, take your pick.
Quoting myself;
“If RS is lynched and is a townie, tomorrow’s quota should be 9 to 5 (6).”
It’s worse than that, actually; I forgot about Pedescribe (otherwise known as he who perpetually skips out on games). If he’s town, then effectively it could be 8 to 5(6) tomorrow if SF is scum and Skeezix is not – a very, very difficult LYLO (since town would need virtual unaminity to overrride a potentially game-winning scum bandwagon). The setup of the game does make 4 scum more likely than 5, I think (good number of NPCs), so I suppose the question to ATPG stands.
On other topics: I still want to review Mental Guy’s posts. I’d still like Pizza to analyze yesterday’s votes as he suggestd someone might do today. I’d like to know what he thinks of Septimus right now. And I’d like him to state how he got to Stanislaus, TexCat et all in his “quiet scum” analysis but not Red Skeezix or Mental Guy. If I just missed it, a link will do.
I’d like to see ShadowFacts analyze Red Skeezix’ posts for potential linkages to teammates.
And on other topics, USCDiver’s vote on Pizza today is the stuff of which scum is made. “You’re just trying to confuse the town”? I don’t think so.
vote: USCDiver
And i want to look at Mental Guy in detail.
Are you suggesting both Red and Shadow are Scum? And Pizza seems to make the same suggestion. I’d like to hear your comments on Red’s #601, which Shadow considers scummy.
I do assume there’s a Vig and may reconsider Red in the absence of a counterclaim. But what I think now is that among {Shadow, Pizza, Red} either Shadow is the only scum, or both Red and Pizza are scummy. Assuming this is true we have two choices:
[ul][li] Lynch Shadow and either get 1 Scum for 1 Lynch, or 2 Scum for 3 Lynches.[/li][li] Lynch Pizza or Red and either get 2 Scum for 2 Lynches, or 1 Scum for 2 Lynches.[/li][/ul]
But this doesn’t make it clear which way is best and, anyway, you and Normal seem to think (or pretend to think) that Shadow and Red both being Scum is a possibility.
I tend to agree that Shadow should probably double someone else’s votes (presumably LightFoot’s) real soon; that would go a long way to affirming probable Towniness.
Because my wife was waiting for me to pick her up and I was already late. :o I barely had time to post my last post.
With regard to my Vote power today, I am NOT planning to use it “real soon.” I am absolutely adamant that Red Skeezix be lynched today, and I will do everything in my power to make that happen, including using the Vote power for that purpose. If you were me, you’d do the same. So I won’t be rushed. If you think that’s scummy, so be it. Given that I was attacked last night, I doubt I will survive much longer, so I plan to use the Vote power toDay (if only to demonstrate that I have it), even though I hope it is not needed to assure the correct lynch. (Sorry for that crappy run-on sentence).
It’s obvious that the smoke and mirrors tactic of choice today is to push that both **Skeezix **and I are scum. This is a smart play from scum because even if I am successful at getting **Skeezix **lynched, when he turns up Scum they can start all over on me again (assuming they don’t night kill me first). They know I’ve got a bead on two of them, so they will try hard to discredit me.
But I am happy to put my money where my mouth is. If Skeezix turns up Town, I will immediately double vote myself and charge it up to 4. That’s how confident I am he is Scum.
To breadcrumb my action. So I had something to point back to later on, when septimus was dead and in the gutter. I chose not to do that with ShadowFacts, since septimus was protected and I thought I might have been tilting my hand.
I was having a hard time with that post. I was trying to convey my suspicion without revealing my role:
Septimus’s claim specifically mentions that he wouldn’t be protected from my role at level 5. I am town. Why would a town bulletproof be vulnerable to another town role?
I was specifically told that he was protected. Not that he was unkillable or that he is bulletproof.
I still don’t believe that septimus is bulletproof as he claims, on the contrary I think he is being protected. Why? because of his claim. He has claimed that he was unkillable only for one night. It smells too much like vig bait to me. If he’s being protected, then he would want to purport that he’s not protected a second time, as to possibly draw the vig to shoot at him again.
The second quote in this post:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14083074&postcount=1261
My rationale for choosing my targets:
septimus: He was a lynch runner up who became that way because he manipulated the vote, which made him seem scummy to me.
ShadowFacts: I suspect him of being scum, and he refused to confirm his powers during the day yesterday, by either voting power or message power. I thought that if he is telling the truth about the vote power, he is the most dangerous scum. Scum who can steal votes shorten the game for scum, and allow a win, when not at LYLO. I chose him last night over septimus, because I believe septimus to have claimed in a manner to draw me in.
To answer the question about level:
I am level 1.
=====================
I do have a question about Hirka however, that came up:
(Clipped)
I have voted:
Silver Jan (Confirmed Town)
ShadowFacts (Unknown)
Septimus (Unknown) (Called Safe vote by hirka)
Please reconcile your statement with the facts.
Your desire to bolster your case with that line rings scummy to me.
===============================================
Onto my votes:
vote Septimus
vote ShadowFacts
I cannot reconcile septimus’s role claim with my own. That plus the blatant vote manipulation, leave me pretty convinced.
ShadowFacts jumping to conclusions about the effects of his roleblock ring false to me. He never answered my case against him, other than hand waving. And he apparently never even considered the possibility of outing a town power role. Heck, were he what he claims, he could have sent someone he considers to be town a pm (if he has that power) that said that indicated he knew I had a power, But he did not. It feels too much like a hastily thrown together scum gambit, with the aim of drawing attention away from the lynch leaders of previous days.
Secondly, It strikes me that while he may not have the power which he claims to have, someone else on the scum team might. ShadowFacts may have claimed that power in an effort to dodge the lynch, but his scumbuddy might not have been around to actually perform the action, and so he could not demonstrate the voting power, or the message power.
Furthermore: this statement, "But I am happy to put my money where my mouth is. If Skeezix turns up Town, I will immediately double vote myself and charge it up to 4. That’s how confident I am he is Scum. " Is once again something that doesn’t fit if you assume that Shadow is town. If you are town, why would you vote for yourself based on a bad call? (I don’t think you would.) Why then would you make this statement? It feels like he is trying to turn bravado into a reason to believe him, and it is disingenuous as hell.
I’m laying this out there: The four scummiest players to me are:
Before I post my preliminary thoughts on the events of the previous Day and Night, I thought I would share this vote record for anyone who is interested. I spent the time to make it, might as well let players use it if they can.
Day 1
RedSkeezix - [del]Askthepizzaguy 137[/del] 225
Tom Scud - [del]Normal Phase 140[/del] 196
choie - [del]pedescribe 150[/del] 184
pedescribe - [del]Stanislaus 159[/del] 204,** Silver Jan** 382
special ed - [del]Suburban Plankton 169[/del] 277, [del]special ed 372[/del] 436
Kelly Criterion - [del]Normal Phase 196[/del] 338, [del]ShadowFacts 203[/del] 360, Stanislaus 204, [del]MentalGuy 217[/del], choie 247, [del]Silver Jan 285[/del], Scathach 293, Special Ed 295, TexCat 315, Suburban Plankton 342, LightFoot 361, Normal Phase 397, USCDiver 432, special ed 449
Koldanar - [del]Scathach 211[/del] 293, Askthepizzaguy 225, MentalGuy 319, Romanic 363, Scathach 411, Silver Jan 416
Normal Phase -** KellyCriterion** 213, [del]Silver Jan 227[/del] 274
Askthepizzaguy - gnarlycharlie 228, Koldanar 238, septimus 248
Silver Jan - Red Skeezix 233, ShadowFacts 360, pedescribe 369, choie 419, [del]MentalGuy 429[/del] 431, USCDiver 432, Suburban Plankton 433
Romanic - [del]Silver Jan 324[/del] 366
septimus - Normal Phase 338, [del]special ed 371[/del] 372
Suburban Plankton - [del]special ed 436[/del] 449
Day 2
septimus - Askthepizzaguy 488, Askthepizzaguy 528, Normal Phase 658, special ed 680, septimus 829, special ed 832
ShadowFacts - [del]Normal Phase 490[/del] 829, [del]Red Skeezix 601[/del] 790, Hirka T’Bawa 820, Hirka T’Bawa 826
special ed - [del]Stanislaus 531[/del] 591, Silver Jan 721, Silver Jan 752, [del]Weedy 761[/del] 773, TexCat 783
gnarlycharlie - MentalGuy 542, [del]Normal Phase 543[/del] 658
Koldanar - MentalGuy 542
Normal Phase - [del]**special ed **544[/del] 680, choie 566, gnarlycharlie 649, ShadowFacts 812
Askthepizzaguy - [del]special ed 544[/del], pedescribe 553, pedescribe 553, [del]septimus 572[/del] 838, [del]Weedy 611[/del] 740, USCDiver 628
Silver Jan - choie 566, [del]ShadowFacts 575[/del], [del]special ed 588[/del] 832, Suburban Plankton 595, Red Skeezix 601, Inner Stickler 610, Weedy 791, septimus 838, septimus 838
choie - [del]Silver Jan 569[/del], [del]Suburban Plankton 595[/del] 722
Koldanar - LightFoot 597
USCDiver - gnarlycharlie 649, LightFoot 821
MentalGuy - Stanislaus 659
TexCat - Suburban Plankton 722
pedescribe - ShadowFacts 770
Day 3,
septimus - [del]Hirka T’Bawa 885[/del] 1091, [del]Normal Phase 887[/del] 947, [del]Inner Stickler 888[/del], Stanislaus 893, gnarlycharlie 959, MentalGuy 968, Red Skeezix 1065, USCDiver 1098
ShadowFacts - Hirka T’Bawa 885, Askthepizzaguy 1030, Red Skeezix 1065, Normal Phase 1080, Hirka T’Bawa 1091, TexCat 1192, TexCat 1192
choie - [del]Askthepizzaguy 905[/del] 988, [del]Weedy 923[/del] 1205, [del]Normal Phase 1047[/del]
pedescribe - [del]Weedy 923[/del] 1044
Normal Phase - choie 930, [del]septimus 1009[/del] 1121, [del]ShadowFacts 1090[/del] 1195
MentalGuy - gnarlycharlie 959
gnarlycharlie - MentalGuy 968
Stanislaus - [del]Askthepizzaguy 988[/del] 1067
TexCat - [del]Askthepizzaguy 988[/del] 1030, Normal Phase 1007, Suburban Plankton 1014, septimus 1023, Weedy 1044, LightFoot 1109, Suburban Plankton 1167, septimus 1178, ShadowFacts 1195, ShadowFacts 1195, Weedy 1205, Inner Stickler 1210, Inner Stickler 1210
Suburban Plankton - [del]**TexCat **1018[/del], [del]Askthepizzaguy 1067[/del] 1175
Askthepizzaguy - [del]septimus 1121[/del]
I will try to have a bit more analysis tomorrow, but during the Night period I went back and reviewed all the votes for TexCat and the case made against her. It primarily increased my suspicion on Suburban and Weedy, but I want to go back and review what they have done overall.
I wasn’t expecting a no-kill Night and have not really taken the time to think through all the implications of each of the claimed actions. I have seen some things that make doubt each of their claims, but I don’t really think they are both scum playing some elaborate trick here. I also find it unlikely that Red and septimus are on the same team. The assassin role seems to be designed to level up so that it can take out the bulletproof player, but why would that be the case if they were on the same team? And does not a bulletproof scum sound a bit overpowered?
I would say either the scum have a janitor or the delayed reveal is a part of the game and the scum have a role that allows them to get the result early. But if ShadowFacts does take a dead power’s role neither one is necessary.
LightFoot, did you get a result last Night?
I will study this more tomorrow.
No that’s much better, I can follow a 2 line post.
That whole discussion was predicated on the presumption that Red and Shadow are both telling the truth, so point 1 above is moot. And now that Shadow (claims to have) powers that are both confirmable AND potentially dangerous to Scum, I don’t think he is that good of a lynch candidate anymore. Despite your protestations to the contrary.
I should have been more clear. He may not be confusing other people in town, but it sure as hell confused me.
Hmm not that much discussion since I left for work.
Okay I have a whole day off, woot… I’m going to be online for the next like 8 hours so if anyone wants to talk and compare notes, I’m here, and I’d rather talk to someone than post 8 times in a row to myself which will probably get skipped over.
Wat.
Well, okay… that is still potentially crippling, as he could single-handedly flip the vote by four. I don’t think we’ll ever be so certain as to have a vote lead of 5. Given that Shadow may be one of the folks on such a wagon, he could remove one vote and flip 4 votes, covering a difference of five; you’d need 6 to ensure that doesn’t happen.
Again I say it’s an overpowered ability for scum to have, and I’d recommend getting rid of it. I’d feel a LOT better about Facts being alive if he’s not able to 4-vote.
Sloppy us didn’t pressure him hard enough, methinks.
Red confirmed he was trying to kill ShadowFacts; So either they’re both lying, or Shadow was busy blocking Skeezix last night. That still doesn’t clear or condemn either one. Have to check Skeezix’ answer for more…
I know I’m fighting a lost cause on ShadowFacts, unless a whole bunch of otherwise divided folks come together on it.
Regardless of SF’s alignment, having more than one candidate in a round is very important; you know this as well as I do, Normal Phase. And there are many reasons why that is so.