Normal, In response to your Post 1328, I’m not going to attempt to put all of the quotes back together by hand in order to respond to them item by item. Basically, it boils down to this…
Of the possible explanations I could think of to describe how the events point to **ShadowFacts **being Scum, all but one are so unlikely as to be discarded out of hand. the one remaining scenario is this:
Shadowfacts was a Scum Power-stealer, whose power was such that he stle the abilities of the first Town Power to die. In essence, his power was exactly as he claimed; his alignment was the only thing he lied about.
I think such a Scum is less plausible than the Town Backup power that Shadowfacts claimed. This is my opinion, as I pointed out. Your opinion may vary (which apparently it does). If you think that there is no basis for my argument, then you are free to disregard it.
As for my speculation about **ShadowFacts **possibly being 3rd-Party, I considered the possibility, discarded it, and said so in my post. What was wrong with that?
The very fact of Red Skeezix either being forced to use his power like a second lynch means that he’s either got to murder who we say, like… suspects, for example… or he is lynched, means if he’s scum we have him by the gonads, and we will soon have his entire team by the gonads.
If Red is townie, he either gets free shots at the scumbags, the scumbags murder him, OR the scumbags have to prove Red is not one of them by performing a second murder! Lynching a claimed assassin when we still have time, is nuts.
We have this whole situation by the balls, and people are all too eager to release the grip. You have to twist them until they’re blue. I’m going to say it one more time: balls.
And the Lords don’t *have *two murders or we would have seen two murders this whole time, save last night.
So what does Red do if he’s scum? He either murders who we say, or he gets lynched the very next day.
So, we can direct him to murder someone, and we can try to lynch someone else, giving us *two *shots at a scumbag today instead of one, and allowing for the possibility that *Red gets murdered *because we had him target a Lord of Slaughter, or Red gets murdered simply because he’s too dangerous to be left alive, or ShadowFacts (or someone else gets murdered while Red murders someone else, proving Red Skeezix was not the Lord of Slaughter, saving us a bad lynch, and allowing Red Skeezix to perform an ADDITIONAL murder attempt the next night, and somewhere during all of this, Lightfoot and the paranoid doc (maybe) get more chances to investigate people like septimus, or myself if need be.
Basically, you toss all of these claims at one another until one of them cracks like a rotten egg, and then you make them die. @Normal-
Okay so you have to make Red Skeezix attack someone besides septimus is all. That’s still a fairly good gamble, because if he’s townie, that’s like an extra lynch, and gives us a much better chance of hitting scums today (anything is better than zero if Red is innocent).
Anyhoo, back to that special ed-finding mission I was on.
I sound excited because I think I’ve got a halfway decent plan in there somewhere, and you guys can suggest improvements.
Keep thinking, but none of these will work as described.
Red killing Septimus. As stated, if both are telling the truth, then Red’s second shot at Septimus will kill him. Dead townie. If Red is truthful but Septimus not (Red’s supposition about second-party protection being the case – unless it can’t be repeated), then Septimus will live with no trace in the write-up that anything happened. Status quo. If Septimus is truthful, but Red not, then Red just plain doesn’t shoot, claims protection of Septimus. You can’t distinguish the second case from the third without outside information.
Red killing someone else: a ton of variables. You seem to be on the paranoid doc kick curently, but if instead it is a scum who’s been blocking Lightfoot, then whether or not Red is able to do anything (even if truthful and willing) depends on the truthfulness of Shadowfacts as to whether he leaves Red unblocked.
(snip a bunch of options that all depend on Septimus having claimed a more-than-one-shot bulletproof)
I don’t see any way to avoid status quo here. If Shadowfacts is mafia, irrespective of Red’s status, then he has the capability to prevent Red from firing. Since this is the case, then if Red is mafia, irrespective of SF’s status, he can claim that Shadow did just that – regardless if the scum are killing elsewhere or not, since Shadow would have to promise to stay away from Red for this to even make sense – and return to the same he said/she said as today.
I’d snip for the same reasons as above, except that I want to point out that if SF is scum, I win the thread and the potential Cassandra crown, not you. Credit where credit is due, ATPG.
SP is scummy to me regardless; his logic isn’t what it’s purporting to be whether it’s in support of a scumbuddy or a townie.
OK, I see where we were at cross purposes here. In my mind, the power worked by charging the votes that the target had already cast. I see now that there’s nothing in the claimed ability to necessarily suggest that.
Your argument is that we should take the extra votes out of Shadowfacts’ hands in order to make absolutely certain the Scum have no chance to use them for their own purposes; this is a valid point. I was under the impression that several players had expressed the ides that **ShadowFacts **‘giving up his votes’ would help to ‘show his Towniness’. In particular I *thought *that I had seen this from Askthepizzaguy, but upon review the only place I can find this explicitly stated is in this post from Septimus.
So perhaps I was arguing against a specific individual’s idea rather than a widely held one. I still think it’s wrong.
That is in fact what it boils down to. And it’s just an opinion, and may be right or wrong depending how Astral likes his mafia games. What I question is all the verbiage, much of it beside the point, surrounding that opinion. And I’m going to leave it at that.
SF giving up his votes would remove some of the sense of impending doom I have from his likely survival today; it wouldn’t in itself clear him as town in my mind. But it would make me more comfortable looking elsewhere for a time.
I’m not fully caught up, but I wanted to respond to the following, since it was helpfully underlined.
I reject your challenge, Askthepizzaguy. As I clearly stated earlier, I am convinced that Red Skeezix is scum and I plan to spend the Day ensuring that he is lynched, using my Vote power if necessary. I will not be pestered, pressured, threatened, or challenged into changing this goal. I am a Rock in the Weary Land.
If, against all odds, Skeezix turns up Town, I am obviously going to be lynched. I have basically staked my reputation on him being Scum, and there is no way I will survive if he is not. So your threat of persecution is not only meaningless, it’s no different from what you’ve already been doing.
Personally, I appreciate your jerkbagginess (which I truly don’t find jerkbaggy at all) and find it potentially useful in finding Scum.
Of course, I don’t have the best reputation, though I like to think I’ve mellowed.
However, you did encourage me to crunch some numbers on my own gameplay. Looking beyond just the record.
So I looked at all games which were o the more standard 1 Scum team variety (I basically took out 3 handed and Conspiracy games none of which I’ve ever won). My record on just Giraffe, Idlemafia and here. My record in those games is 17-25, which is actually much better than my over all record.
We don’t have records overall for all players, but still
[spoiler]42 games (17 wins, 25 losses) - Survived 8 times
Mafia: 7 games (1 wins, 6 losses) - Survived 0 times
Neutral: 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses) - Survived 0 times
Town: 32 games (16 wins, 16 losses) - Survived 8 times
Survival:
0.190
Wins
0.405
Which basically leads me to believe that I rarely survive. That probably has some influence over my 14% Scum record and 0% 3rd party record.
[/QUOTE]
If your vote power hasn’t been spread out to someone else by the end of the day, I will have two votes on you, and I’ll actively encourage everyone else in the weary land to do the same thing.
You’re a caught scumbag, and THAT is why you’re able to take these risks with your life. You don’t want to compromise with me because it will weaken your position.
I will happily make a deal with you: lock in your votes for Red Skeezix and then I will vote charge YOU. It’s a delightful compromise: the power is disposed of for the Day and you are happy, and I maximize the votes on the person I am certain is Scum. What do you say?
There’s no point in accepting it, it is the exact same thing as if Shadow were keeping the power, except now he also has two further additional votes to add to the pile.
No. I want you to vote charge LF, knowing there’s a risk she could turn around and lynch you with the power. And I won’t consider voting Red myself before I’ve wrung as much as I can out of his own responses. Much less locking myself in. That you even want me to is dubious.
Why are you so sure of Red? Arguments have been presented, but never in your words.
Who is scum with Red if he is? Nobody’s done this.
It’s sloppy in the extreme to not allow for the possibility of being wrong. Even with my crusade against you, I’ve allowed for that possibility and am attempting to formulate a plan that allows for a townie victory even in such an event.
You should not be so stubborn if you’re townie, because the truth is more stubborn and always wins.
Give your vote power to Lightfoot, and Lightfoot promises not to use the additional votes except in say, an extreme circumstance like last minute scummy vote switching from others. Or, even say she can’t use it.
Then, feel free to vote for Red Skeezix, lock in, if you like, though there’s no reason to do that so early, case in point my own votes for septimus early on in the game. I’d also feel more comfortable voting for Red myself if you did such a thing.
You’d get a lot more credit from me if you simply make that compromise. And I’d be willing to not lynch you today. Hanging on to the 4-vote thing only makes you look less credible to me.
The scum do have a one-time second kill. I’ve seen it before. I’d have expected them to have used it before now, but if they’ve got it then they could happily have scum-Red kill a Town nominee and carry out another kill to boot. (Actually, what if they get another kill for levelling up? If we accept that possibility, the absence of a second kill so far means nothing.)
The nominee is the Doc, Paranoid or otherwise. They’ll self-protect if they can, or claim in the Night thread if they can’t. (Actually, this goes for any other power roles who might get nominated. We can hardly expect them to keep quiet at that point.)
Actually think about it this way: Let’s say we lynch me, and I nominate pedescribe, just in case mentioning his name summons him.
Scenario 1: In the morning, pedescribe and one Townie are dead. What do we know? Red was either telling the truth, or is scum with a bonus kill. I suppose if pedescribe flipped scum, that would tend to back up Red’s story - unless we immediately WIFOM that statement.
Scenario 2: In the morning only pedescribe is dead. What do we know? If he’s scum, then yay, we nailed a scum. No small thing, but do we trust Red now? If pede is Town, then either the Scum were blocked again, or Red is scum and they were happy to take the Town kill we gave them.
Scenario 3: Pede lives, but a Townie is dead. Red says he was blocked. Shadow says he didn’t block him. What do we know? We’re just guessing again - Red is lying scum, Shadow is lying scum, scum have another blocker who’s framing Red…
Scenario 4: No kill. As above, Red claims block and Shadow says not. Did Red hit a self-protecting Doc? Is he lying scum? Did the scum forego an NK to frame him?
Talk me through what we do in these situations. If it gives us an edge, I’m for it but right now it looks like we’ll be left guessing.
Red is scum, scum is down. Now, what are our next leads? I know you’re going to think it is me. Boy, will you ever. But guess what I am townie.
Win, due to dead scum, maybe Win-draw since I probably get lynched after.
And I’d give Shadow the benefit of the doubt for a while, just like I’m doing for the other roles. Although it might be to our benefit if Shadow blocks septimus or Lightfoot (yeah, I said it) tonight so we can feel better about them not being scumbags. Of course, Shadow probably gets murdered soon if he’s townie in that scenario. But at least he gets off another roleblock; should claim which person he’s blocked as late into the night as possible, so we know what to do the next day if he’s dead.
Red is not scum, you just had a really lousy round and you’re down an assassin. And the Lords are at full strength, and you can probably kiss the doctor goodbye as the time is nearing for that bit of bad luck to happen.
We wake up in the morning and are not only no closer to solving the thing, but we’ve shot ourselves in the foot in hardcore fashion.
Lose-Lose.
Don’t lynch red-
Red is scum, but in order to stay alive, he’s gotta kill someone we say. Maybe someone we don’t want to waste a round on lynching. Maybe someone like pedescribe, since he’s not voting. Or, he accepts that he’s lost and violates our trust, kills whoever he wants. He’s dead the next day.
Meanwhile, we didn’t lynch red. One shot at his teammate for the lynch, and tonight, he’s going to kill someone we say or expose himself, so we get a bad lynch out of the way without wasting a round of intense discussion and voting on it. The positives are, if we ask him to axe his own teammate, he doesn’t do it and exposes himself, or he does it and we’ve just got him to kill his own teammate.
Draw-win, since we get additional shots at lynching and Red isn’t going anywhere.
Red is not scum, he’s going to get murdered, but until then, he’s our vigilante.
We don’t lynch him, so we get another lynch, a better shot at hitting the Lords.
Then Red gets a free shot at the Lords himself, which is an excellent “second” lynch, and since he’s town, the odds are better we find a Lord of Slaughter dead by the next day.
Win-win.
But, remember, we had a shot at you, and you could have been scum.
That’s two lynches instead of one. Okay, we have two chances to mess up, but I’d rather lose because we messed up on our guesses than lose because we didn’t use every additional bullet we had. I like having two shots.
Do we trust Red if his target was scum? I think that’s worth another chance at killing the scums the next night, don’t you?
Let him kill off his own teammate. That would be awesome. He’s still going to get lynched at some point, because there’s no way the Lords allow a claimed vigilante who just killed one of their own to keep firing at them. If they do, they have massive cojones and they deserve a win like that.
Do we trust Red if his target was townie? I would if there was an additional kill, but your mileage may vary.
In that case, we have a scumbag, and I’ll even spot you Red Skeezix as the first lynch in that scenario, because at least I got to try my plan.
In that case, we PROBABLY have a scumbag, and I’ll even spot you Red Skeezix as the first lynch in that scenario, because at least I got to try my plan.
Thanks for hearing me out. I don’t mind losing as long as we’re not being lazy and we explore additional options.
Then, we simply chose wrong out of our possible choices, instead of not having a chance at choosing the right option because it was never discussed.
Also, for our lynches/vigilantism, I’d be willing to look at these folks:
**
Diver, Suburban **(from the list of folks who have voted, and I’d prefer these folks)
choie, pedescribe (from the list of folks who have not voted)
Because I have a strong feeling pede and choie are both not going to be murder targets anytime soon, and choie struck me as scummy in her behavior before. pede has been active but has chosen not to vote.
Diver because I need to know if this guy is legit or not, he keeps voting for me. Suburban because he’s my number two suspect in the game after ShadowFacts.
I give the others a pass for the moment for strategic reasons, not because I don’t think there’s scum among them.
