I don’t see anything in there that indicates **Ed **doubted **LightFoot’s **claim, so there’s nothing to support the idea that **Ed **blocked **Lightfoot **on Night 2. So we have 2 Roleblockers.
If the Roleblocker from Night 2 is Scum, then it makes sense to me that they would have blocked **LightFoot **again on Night 3 and tried again to kill the Doc (who we assume exists) elsewhere, as they presumably did on Night 2. Since they failed to kill at all, either the killer was blocked, or their target was protected. In this case, it could be that **ShadowFacts **is telling the truth and he blocked a Scum Red Skeezix. Or it could be that the Doc figured the Scum would block **LightFoot **again instead of trying to kill her, so he protected someone else, and got lucky.
If the Roleblocker from Night 2 is a Paranoid Doc, then we have to wonder if he would have protected **LightFoot **for a second Night in a row. Since the Scum apparently looked elsewhere (Ed) on Night 2, perhaps they would do the same on Night 3, and the Doc could leave **LightFoot **unprotected so that she could get a second investigation in. At some point, a Paranoid Doc has to leave the Cop unprotected, or else he essentially turns 2 Town Powers into 2 Vanillas.
Again, we need to know whether or not **LightFoot **was blocked last Night.
If she wasn’t, I think she needs to consider giving us some or all of her results. If she nailed Scum last Night then the single name would suffice, since she would guarantee a good lynch Today. If she found another Townie last Night, then I think revealing both names would be called for, as two Confirmed Town would help greatly considering the state we are in at the moment.
If LightFoot was blocked last Night, then I’m less certain whether or not a reveal would be a good idea, since she has only one name to give us. It might depend at that point on *who *she investigated.
This is an interesting thought. The lack of a second kill on either of the first 2 Nights strongly suggests that the Scum did not have an extra kill, as I expect they would have used it. But with the possibility of “new, unique powers” as a result of leveling up, we can’t be sure that the Scum will not acquire an extra kill at some point. So far, the only way we know for certain for Scum to have leveled up is by performing the Night kill, but we can assume that using their Powers would grant the same XP as it does for Town. We have to consider the possibility that one or more Scum may have acquired, or be about to acquire, additional abilities.
So I’m still fine tuning my plan. There’s more about the plan in this post. Red Skeezix, this is a reply to a part of a post you made less recently, so heads up.
At some point, yes, but you have to figure the scums probably felt the same way and would move their kill elsewhere, only to bring it back the next night, which if Skeezix is innocent explains a whole heck of a lot. So the doc probably protected twice, followed my advice, and said to wait until later into the game to risk the life of the detective. Which is solid strategy.
That said, I would feel better about Lightfoot if I had additional scans or I knew the source of her protection, as scummy as that sounds, because:
Scums have to kill the assassin (very shortly)
Scums have to kill the protection (immediately, or block them)
Scums have to kill the detective (ASAP)
Scums have to kill the revealed innocent(s) (ASAP after that)
That’s too much for one night. They can’t hit all that. And the detective is protected, too. And they’re being scanned and fired at by the assassin. It’s probably too much for two nights, really. And I’m sort of trying not to hit the doctor with my vote here. It’s in the back of my mind so I’m firing at folks I feel are not acting like a doctor, example pede- I don’t think the total-lurk is a good idea as a doctor. You also have to figure a claimed doctor is as good as dead within a night or two, but could confirm that the doc was protecting Lightfoot (or whoever) and possible even if there was a second kill last night.
If so, we have a real huge indicator as to what we need to do. But I would not blame anyone if they kept their doctor claim to themselves for now.
To be clear, I’m not advocating a reveal, but it would be better to reveal voluntarily rather than under voting pressure, as it’s more plausible, and it will directly tie the “paranoid doctor” to Lightfoot. If the paranoid doc doesn’t die, the doc is probably scum, and then, probably Lightfoot is as well; but there’s still margin for error as Lightfoot doesn’t go first and does get more scans in.
If we knew the doc, the detective, the detective scans, then we could do the following:
1.) Blind lynch today
2.) Blind vig-kill tonight, anticipating doctor or assassin death
3.) Blind scan someone in case the doctor flips a coin and decides not to protect Lightfoot
4.) ShadowFacts can coordinate and roleblock someone.
That’s 2 deaths, a scan, and a roleblock, all coordinated against any 4 suspects.
Then, the scums have to hit the doctor, gamble on the detective, and/or try to bring down the blocker, the assassin… and it’s all during 1 night.
Then we have yet another lynch and possibly a scan result for tomorrow, and very good odds of hitting scum out of those 2 lynches, 1 vig (2 if Red survives), and the block will help us narrow down folks, and so will the scans.
We can either risk that, or risk holding the information another round, but I’d argue we have a massive opportunity this round because of the existence of the assassin plus the lynches. We’d risk hitting our own people less because of the additional knowledge, and we present too many targets for the scums.
I leave it up to Lightfoot and the doc, if any, to decide how they want to play it. My vote is leaning reveal everything for maximum chance of success today and tonight and avoid a bad Red Skeezix lynch, but I can work in the dark.
Also, food for thought:
If no doctor ever claims, Lightfoot is either scum, or being blocked by the scums. If so, I feel the odds are better, in both examples, that ShadowFacts is innocent. The second one is more obvious, but I feel that ShadowFacts and Lightfoot are not scums together. It’s more of a gut feeling. So here’s my plan, call it Pizza’s plan:
I’d recommend a total coordination strategy for today and tonight; maximum info for the lynch and the assassination, and doc/detective/assassin/roleblocker all work together in coordination. Also, if ShadowFacts gets rid of the voting power, I’d feel better about it, I could move my vote elsewhere today.
Between the events of tonight and the lynch tomorrow, with the reveal/coordinate strategy, I think you’ve got a massive chance of hitting one-two scums, and if Red or Shadow or any of the claimed roles are guilty, it will become more obvious within a couple rounds, and I’m fairly sure a third scum would be hiding amongst them.
Um so I’m probably not the most trustworthy-seeming guy around here so I am just laying the plan out there for someone with more credibility if they want to use the idea.
The upsides to the plan:
Any scumbag tries to claim, the real person can counterclaim. As of now, the only legitimate counterclaim would probably be the doc themselves. I’d trade 1 doc for 1 scum right now. Beats losing a doc and not having a lead as well.
Coordination allows information, block, or death to be applied to several different people at once, in a planned effort. If there are scums in this group, they will face the full strength of the town and be unable to retaliate effectively.
It allows the vig and the lynch to avoid the doctor and increases the odds of hitting scum.
It ties Lightfoot to the claimed doc, and if the claimed doc doesn’t die then he’s probably guilty, and we’d have a lead on Lightfoot if so. I’d trade Lightfoot for a scumbag assuming the scum dies first, and LF can scan more.
The true power roles will be more likely murdered than lynched; we can’t afford to lynch them. It’s a bad outcome but better than lynching them! Those who aren’t true will remain alive by default, and we’ll have more info to work with next round, especially if some of the dead flip scum or there’s no LOS kill again or there’s a scan result on one of them.
The downsides:
We could bottom out, luck-wise, and hit nothing but townies anyway, and start the process of losing our power roles from murders at night. That’s going to happen anyway, since they’ve mostly claimed. So what are we waiting for? At least squeeze as much good out of it as possible.
It’s possible the doc gets blocked and Lightfoot gets killed. That’s why LF should reveal her scan either today or before the end of the night. Hopefully the vig, lynches, and block give us compensation for that worst-case. Alternative One: default. Call it ShadowFact’s plan.
We lynch Red Skeezix today, and avoid doing anything fancy. You bet the farm on Red Skeezix’ guilt, and if he’s not guilty, that is the worst, worst case scenario. I don’t like that idea, especially since a claimed vig isn’t going to last long anyway. Stickler knows what I’m talking about.
But, that’s the default action for today, and if Shadow is in fact guilty, lynching Red Skeezix might help bring some more of you around to that idea. The upside is we don’t risk revealing any new information, so the doctor is safe. And we don’t need to convince anyone. We just leave the vote sitting as it is, or better yet, if we’re doing that action, have everyone vote for Red Skeezix. He is a possible scumbag I’ll grant you that, and you’ll all get XP if you’re correct.
Alternative Two: Middle ground.
We don’t lynch Skeezix and we don’t claim; we should still coordinate a bit, and begin discussing options for the lynch other than Skeezix.
That’s an important discussion to have for many, many reasons. Please, even if you disagree with all of the above and still want to lynch Skeezix, weigh in on who goes next. “Next” is very important in a game where no scums have been revealed.
Pizza, please explain where this paranoid doc thing comes from. I see no evidence of one. Lightfoot’s never given the slightest indication that one of her investigations (after night one) got through, and she won’t be around to confirm or deny on anything until Wednesday anyway.
My assumption since the beginning has been regular town doc (probably) plus scum roleblocker (claimed by Lightfoot, essentially). How does the Pizza plan function in that scenario?
I’m trying to follow you; I want desperately to believe there’s a way to guarantee decent results over the next day or so. (Better than the 50-50 I think Red and SF most likely represent.) But I have no idea what you’re talking about half the time.
I don’t want to talk more about “why” on the paranoid doc at the moment. Perhaps at the end of the round or before the night phase is over. I’ll be accountable and explain, and it should make sense why I’m mum about it then, but not right at the moment.
If something happens which relieves me of the burden of silence, then yeah.
[OOG]I passed the NAPLEX I took Thursday! Woot! Took my law exam this morning (hope I passed!), and now only have the Georgia Wet Board on August 18th in the way of me getting my pharmacist license! Woot!!![/OOG]
Ok, quickly reviewing, I see Red had some questions for me.
Ok, looking at the vote history that Mental Guy posted, I see you’re actually one of the first votes on Silver Jan on day one. I wasn’t here on day one, so didn’t know all that led up to it, exept that I saw you voted for her, and she was 2nd in votes that day. I did see on day 2 (the day she got lynched), you voted in the middle of the pack, which I saw as a safe vote. You voted for Septimus on day 3 after his vote switching, which everyone (including me) voted him for at first. So, it was a safe vote.
When I said “safe vote” I meant that as in someone who had a case already on them, so it would have been safe to vote them if you are scum, and wouldn’t have to necessarily defend your vote.
Now, the fact that you are trying to OMGUS FoS me, I could take wrongly, but, you did the same thing in the last game we were in, Thundercats, when you disagreed with something I said, and where you were town after all. So, I’m taking that as a null-tell.
Now, while I haven't heard anything to make me take my vote off Red at this point, that could just because he "might" be town, and the scum is just sitting back laughing at us since we've lynched nothing but town so far, and "if" he is town, they like that we're doing all the work for them. Honestly, I think the day's talk has been too centered on just **Shadowfacts** and **Red Skeezix**. Even if one of them is scum, there is most likely is at least 3 others. Who else seems scummy to people?
I am looking forward to **Lightfoot** coming back, I'm really interested in what she (?) has to say about last night.
Oh, and **ShadowFacts**, I would really like you to use the message power on someone, just to prove you have it. While it wouldn't prove you're town, it would help put some of my doubts to rest. And, I don't see what reason you have for not using it so far, as far as I can see, there is no point in saving it right now. And, the fact that you haven't complied with that one reasonable request, does give me pause.
Like I said, use it on me, I’m your biggest critic. I’ll immediately mention that you’ve used it.
@Hirka
That said, he roleblocked Skeezix (probably) so I tend to believe the lesser claim, especially since it is so easy to prove and so foolish to be caught lying about. It’s the vote boosting power which makes my skin crawl, limited though it may be. I want to see it gone.
ATPG, why are you making this so complicated? It seems to me there is a good chance Red Skeezix is scum. If he isn’t, then there is an even better chance that Shadowfacts is scum. Once we find one, we can look at votes, and posts, and do all that analysis stuff. Making plans for ‘Town’ to agree on (and who is Town, BTW?) is like trying to make water run uphill, and is adding to the noise.
(Maybe I am prejudiced because I don’t like vigs. If Townspeople talking together can’t come up with scum, then how is one person going to do it? They are just going to vig their current top suspect, or have Red Skeezix do it, under your plan (assuming I understand it correctly). Seems like a good way to get another dead Townie.)
I’ll turn it around, that will answer your question by showing my reasoning. Why railroad the discussion in one direction? Can’t I talk about alternative plans, contingency plans for the current plan, and alternative lynch suspects?
Besides what the heck else am I supposed to talk about today? Or should I just nod and agree with whatever?
Yup. And there’s a good chance he’s not.
How does that affect the odds, other than there being one less person that is a lord of slaughter? Is there any special reasoning here, because it is Skeezix?
Shadow could in fact be innocent as well. That’s not what I believe, but why are you thinking the odds are better that it’s not the case?
Waiting until later is not my modus operandi. Some of us assume we’ll be dead and unable to post at some point.
Also, planning ahead is better than reacting. Reactive play is panicky and wastes time, I prefer to think ahead for different outcomes.
Because a vigilante will kill whoever he thinks is scum, for whatever reason.
He will not need to listen to the input of the scumbags. He won’t need to vig-kill only someone who is politically vulnerable. He could in fact kill anyone he wants, even someone everyone assumes is townie.
A vigilante is far more powerful than a lynch, because for example, in order to get say Lightfoot dead, I’d need a powerful case, lots of reasoning, and supporters who would vote with me. Lynches are weak, as such.
Any vigilante with even the slightest reasoning to kill someone doesn’t have to argue about it. He just does it.
Every vig kill that occurs is another “lynch” from the town side, but it’s even better than that, because in theory, a vigilante doesn’t need to listen to scumbags to arrive at who dies.
I’ve been arguing Skeezix needs to kill who we say, but if Skeezix were to not listen and happened to kill a scumbag anyway, I’d also give him a pass for that. But shhhh don’t tell him this.
Voting for a lynch is a good way to get another dead townie. it’s also the only way to win the game.
Fraid I disagree with your philosophy on vigilantes. I can sort of prove it’s a bad one too.
Game with scumbags and a vigilante and a random lynch, random vigilante, all things being equal:
1 lynch (chance of hitting scum)
murder(s) (no chance of hitting scum)
Another lynch (chance of hitting scum)
murders (no chance of hitting scum)
Another lynch (chance of hitting scum)
murders (etc)
1 lynch (chance of hitting scum)
1 vig kill (chance of hitting scum)
murder(s) (no chance of hitting scum)
1 lynch (chance of hitting scum)
1 vig kill (chance of hitting scum)
murder(s) (no chance of hitting scum)
1 lynch (chance of hitting scum)
1 vig kill (chance of hitting scum)
murder(s) (no chance of hitting scum)
Tell me. Which game has a higher chance of hitting scum?
I will not be using the Message power toDay, because I can only use one Day power at a time. From the message I received regarding the powers I inherited: “You may use one ability per day, and one per night.” So, if I use Message, I can’t use Vote, and I am saving Vote for now in case I need it to get Red Skeezix lynched, as I explained earlier. As I offered to Normal Phase, if you or someone else wants to lock in on Skeezix, I will happily use the power on you to prove that I have it (and get what I want, of course). I am not “giving away” this power until the **Skeezix **lynch is assured. And I don’t care if **Normal ** and **Pizza **keep calling me scummy because of it.
Ok, that actually makes sense… I didn’t think of that… So that’s why you’re saving it… I am willing to lock in my vote on Red Skeezix since I think he is scum more then I think you are scum… However…
Mods, If ShadowFacts uses his vote power on someone, will it be noticeable to us before end of day?
I have no problems locking in my vote, but I want to see the response first.
I wouldn’t make a move yet, Hirka. I have doubts the mods would be able to answer your question because it would confirm or deny parts of SF’s claim, but further, I sorta expect ShadowFacts to not hold up his end of the bargain, or at least not in a way that can be verified.
Using it on you, for example, doesn’t satisfy my suspicions. I want it to be on someone that is not chosen by SF. What’s the point of holding him to removing the vote power if he can use it on whoever he wants?
Pizza, while I understand and respect your worries. I personally believe that a backup town player is within reason, and more likely then a scum power stealer, so I partially believe ShadowFacts is telling the truth. While I believe his claim to be true, I want “actual” proof his claim (or powers) is real. If it is, I’ll count him as town, but, I want proof he’s actually telling the truth and not making something up.
I will not make a move until the mods make an announcement. I expect if I double vote Red, and he gives me the double vote power, there will be some sort of tell… If there isn’t, or he doesn’t give me the power, I expect everyone to turn on him and lynch him instead.
Either way, I want to hear if there will be notice that is obvious. Since, if there is no way to know if he used the power before the lynch, then what is the point?
I am banking a lot on Lightfoot’s innocence. That’s either the ballsiest move I’ve ever seen a scumbag play that early in the game, a game which she also cleverly pretended to not know she was playing, or she’s innocent.
I trust her with the additional vote power, and the only one I’d trust with that vote power besides myself, or whoever Lightfoot claims to have scanned as innocent.
If I simply get acknowledgment from said player that they have such a power, that will be a good enough demonstration for me. I don’t need to see it, I just need to see someone trustworthy vouch for it.
No offense Hirka, you’re not at the top of my suspect list, but ShadowFacts is, and you’re too close to him.
No offense taken, trust me, I understand the worries. I double voted for him before he claimed remember? However, I believe his claim of town backup is more likely then him being a scum who steals power on death (can you show me how common that is?*) However, I do have doubts about his claim, mainly if he actually has the power he says he does. So far, the only power he claimed to use is blocking Red, while Red agrees that he was blocked, I don’t know that red is town either… So, really, I’m looking for some sort of “proof” that he really has the power he says he does.
I would be totally agreeable to ShadowFacts giving his power to Lightfoot, since I have her marked as town in my book, however, the important thing to me right now is proving that he actually has the powers he claims. That means he has to do something that is vouched by someone he isn’t close to. A message to someone I believe is town, or a mod verified double vote, either would satisfy me.
*Since I haven’t played with you before, you should know, this is only my 3rd game of Mafia. I’m still learning. While I’ve done my share of research, and I’m trying to learn, I don’t have the knowledge of many games like y’all do. So if scum stealing town power roles is actually common, I would REALLY like to know.
For the record, I also think a backup town player is reasonable. It’s a very reasonable claim. It’s also likely to be true.
It’s also not a powerful enough role to be dangerous to claim in front of scumbags, thus it’s a great alibi for why you’re not being murdered right away. It’s also not a role that could never go to a scumbag.
We think there could be a janitor or someone hiding alignment and role of the dead, and someone reversing that; one advantage of having alignment and role of the dead hidden is so that the scumbags could steal the role of a pro-town player, and then pull it off without counterclaim.
I don’t care if I’ve never seen it before in a game; there’s a first time for everything, and this is the perfect game for such a role. And by the way, I have seen and participated in a game where a “universal backup” role existed. And, that was a game where the scums or the townies could have gotten any role on the list. It was a random-ish setup game, and universal backup was included on the list of roles that could be claimed, and everyone in the game had a role. The universal backup could have been a scum role.
The jack of some trades role is a stranger role than a universal backup “scum” role, or a shapeshifter type of role, and it would explain the need for janitors/coroners or whatever is going on with the delayed reveals. It presents the town a chance to see who the dead are, while also providing the scums a chance to cover up who the dead are, and take their place.
My pizza senses are tingling. Everything is not straightforward here. I’m looking at scumbags here, and I’m not entirely sure who. So I’m being a large pizza with extra paranoia on top. I don’t buy Lightfoot’s claim 100% but at least we will see murders in her direction or missing kills, or something, and if she doesn’t reveal a scumbag at some point then she could be a safe endgame lynch. I don’t trust septimus’ reveal, especially with Red Skeezix thinking it’s all baloney. I don’t trust Red Skeezix completely, but I have someone telling me Skeezix tried to kill them; that someone is my top suspect and the near-lynch of yesterday. I can therefore believe Skeezix’ vigilante claim, especially since septimus said the Assassin role exists and he hasn’t been counterclaimed.
Frankly, Skeezix’s role is a lot easier for me to swallow than ShadowFacts’ role or septimus’ role. At least I have some independent verification from no less than TWO people, both voting for him, that his powers exist and his role exists, and his claimed attacks have all been against suspects who nearly got lynched, AND he breadcrumb’ed and I can see that with my own eyes.
Basically it all boils down to: ShadowFacts’ and others claim needs as much or more skepticism than Red Skeezix’ claim. And that’s the truth.
I would not be surprised to see a doctor claim and say that Lightfoot got attacked last night. I will have called it, and I will be declared to have PIS and I will probably be lynched for it.
Okay good point. That’s a very strong argument. Not ironclad, but yeah, I forgot you were with me on that one. @Stickler- yeah agreed. I just wouldn’t complain as loudly because that’s a small chance versus a much greater chance of hitting scum.
