I did not say that looking into things closer meant that he found Shadow innocent. I still think he could have thought that the complaints he received from accusing Shadow based on one post were reasonable complaints and so decided to review Shadow’s overall posting history. Whether he finds Shadow scummy or not doesn’t really affect my view of the situation. He never claimed his review of Shadow’s posts was the reason for changing his vote.
I feel a little silly defending Red here, since I am leaning toward him being scum now, but this is in the context of when I was first reviewing him.
And I realize now after writing all this, that I was answering the wrong question to begin with. As far as his actual unvote, I don’t know why I should have a problem with that. If he felt Jan was scummier, I see no reason he shouldn’t change his vote.
Right now I’d love to see Red Skeezix vig-kill either Suburban Plankton or septimus. He’s probably leaning septimus, I’m leaning Suburban Plankton.
Meanwhile, I’d suggest blocking or scanning Normal Phase, just because I need to know if she’s trustworthy enough to lead this discussion after I die. And then either blocking or scanning choie or USCDiver, leaning Diver, and leaning block on him and scan on Normal Phase.
I’d like to lynch ShadowFacts or Suburban Plankton today, failing that, septimus or Diver.
I’d like to follow up with a lynch on Suburban Plankton, septimus, or Diver tomorrow. I’d like to lynch Red Skeezix the moment he doesn’t vig who we say, or if septimus and/or ShadowFacts turn up townie.
But that’s my plan. My plan is not the popular plan. My plan is not likely to happen.
Why? They’re going to want Lightfoot dead and there’s a 50/50 shot she’s being protected at night by the paranoid doc if there is one.
But sure, they could have also tried to frame someone, I guess.
If the “cop” is guilty, then… yeah, that’s a really good thing.
Sure, that’s why I keep putting people up as my top suspects to be discussed by others, offering to vote for said people, giving reasons why they should die, and asking others to do the same thing. But I’ll take a random vig at this point if the vigilante has no idea what to do. I think the vigilante should have a fair idea what to do though.
Oh. Well, they could defer judgment onto the vigilante if they don’t want to pick. Was kinda hoping for some support from my fellow townies on finger pointing, though, because I’d prefer a townie ordering a lynch than everyone suffocating under the weight of true and false pro-town claims and the slings and arrows of political vulnerability when trying to select folks to be lynched.
Also Normal, I am not ignoring the case you made against me based on the septimus voting, but frankly, on some of that I was just plain wrong on my assumptions and I am having a hard time remembering what I was thinking at each step.
When I came on at the end of the Day and did not change my vote from him, though, I was strongly suspecting he was scum because of the very end of Day save he did (especially without explanation) and that his claim could easily be a fairly safe scum cover. As I said earlier, if I had had time to think it over, I think I would have switched my vote to Shadow, but that is neither here nor there in regards to septimus.
If I can sort out and remember what I was thinking earlier I will try to justify my earlier statements, even though they may be based on faulty premises or reasoning.
Come chat with me when there’s some substance behind what you’re saying.
Looks like you didn’t read the context of that discussion at all. If you had, you’d be able to answer these questions.
If you were *really *curious, then you’d just ask me. It wouldn’t be a lousy preamble for a vote disguised as a legitimate question.
No, because if I were, I wouldn’t be trying to make him dead as soon as possible, and wouldn’t have been trying to make him dead as soon as possible for a while now. That would bring the results of my error, if it is an error, down upon my head even faster.
What you consider ass-covering behavior doesn’t fit any definition I’m aware of.
Nuance eludes you.
*If *you were to lynch Red Skeezix, you’d do it now. Why? Because if he’s scum, he needs to die, and sooner is better than later. If he’s townie, then you may yet still have time to recover from the error. Though that time is quite short.
However, I believe Red Skeezix’ tale is more likely the case than not the case. I believe that folks other than Red Skeezix need to die. I’ve voted for those people and said why.
*If *you’re going to do an action I disagree with and think is bad, *then *here are my thoughts on it.
Of course, **nuance **doesn’t get factored in when you’re just throwing poop at pizzaguy’s wall to try to make it stick. As such, I don’t feel you’ve given my words any credit, weren’t listening, not even trying to view me as anything but a target. As such, I can’t work with you, and my previous suspicion only increases, because it implies your motive is not pure.
In spite of your pessimism, I am optimistic, and I believe in Red Skeezix pulling off something nice and devastating to the Lords of Slaughter if given a chance. Because he’s going to die either way, unless he does.
And, I’m inclined to give someone a chance, especially when the situation has been presented as so obvious that he has to die, at this stage of the game. Because I tell you what, I don’t like going with the flow and just letting only the most obvious suspects die.
I am doing what I’ve done on several rounds now, disagreed with the candidate for the lynch. Even though I had some suspicion on TexCat, which I later downgraded a bit, I still felt other suspects were better. I felt other suspects were better every round of the game so far.
Why? Because I like hearing myself talk? Or is it because I’m trying to find scum?
You decide. But wait, you’ve already decided. You chose wrong. Time to die.
I keep expecting Jon Lovitz to poke his head into my screen and say “acting!”
I want to hear some tales of ribaldry before I die.
You know, it’s so obvious to me that Red is lying, it blows my mind that others are giving him credence. So I’ll lay it out.
To believe that Red Skeezix is Town claiming truthfully, all of the following must be true:
[ul]
[li]Red was unable to kill three nights in a row. (Once because he “missed the deadline.”) Three in a row!![/ul][/li][/QUOTE]
I’ve observed that Red Skeezix goes inactive between posts for a much longer period than the standard player. Nights are much shorter than days. If he had posted after the first lynch and before the end of the first night, then yeah, it would be odd. I could take a look at that.
The second one makes sense because of the septimus situation and the fact that they’ve both verified the powers of the other… septimus says there is an assassin in the game, and Skeezix has not been counterclaimed. And, Skeezix admits he attacked septimus, so he has confirmed that septimus was either being protected (and therefore, a SCUMBAG) or he is bulletproof as he said. Skeezix has said he has reason to believe that’s not the case, and I believe he believes that. I would want him to clarify with the game host privately to be absolutely sure “he was protected” means he was protected by someone else, rather than “he self-protected”, because saying he self-protected is a bit too much info for the game host to probably be revealing. It’s not an investigation he’s doing, it’s a hit.
The third one makes even more sense, and they’ve both verified that’s what they were doing last night.
[QUOTE]
AND
[ul][li]Someone protected septimus on Night Two, after Lightfoot claimed Detective. [/ul][/li][/QUOTE]
Either a misinterpretation of the result PM from the host, or septimus is scum.
Both are very real possibilities.
All of those things could be true, and you could be scum or townie in both cases.
On review, Red Skeezix’ longest absence from the game was between before the first night and the middle of the second day. He was gone for several days in a row.
As such, there’s no conclusive evidence that he is lying about missing N1.
Note: this is not evidence in favor of his innocence, but it is a lack of evidence that he’s lying about his missing N1 action. That means his tale, true or false, is at least consistent with the data.
Re-reading Red Skeezix’ posts from the whole game, which takes all of 10 minutes TOPS, I can see he’s breadcrumbing, hitting the guys who should have been lynched that day, and that he immediately votes septimus for faking his claim.
So you know what? Let’s find out.
unvote: ShadowFacts
vote: Septimus
Because you guys aren’t going to lynch ShadowFacts. And, there’s at least some data showing ShadowFacts was occupado last night. Scum or not, I want to hit the guy who was *not *occupado last night.
Here’s what I’m thinking:
Red Skeezix is not mafia with ShadowFacts or septimus. I’d have to look at Suburban Plankton as a possible partner though, as his flip-floppery could indicate that I’m being boneheaded by defending Skeezix, but I’m also the biggest lynch alternative, so there are times when I’m a useful idiot and times when I’m a useful lynch alternative. I could look further into who Red is mafia with, but I want to examine something else for the moment:
septimus: Lord of Slaughter, busy killing peeps. someone else: Lord of Slaughter, protecting septimus, explaining why he was “protected” on a night when the cop should have been protected instead. A scum doctor. someone else: Lord of Slaughter, roleblocking the cop [alternatively, paranoid doc blocks the cop, and ShadowFacts is roleblocking the assassin] If I look at the data for the day septimus nearly got lynched, and the day afterward where I provided them an opportunity to spare his ass, let’s see who flinches.
Let’s see, here was the **literal **last minute save by [del]septiscum[/del] septimus.
Scroll back and see what…
Septimus (6): Askthepizzaguy, Askthepizzaguy, Normal Phase, special ed, Normal Phase, special ed
Let’s see. Who do I find on this list which really makes me grin?
Why, it’s SPECIAL ED. The guy who got kill-ified. :eek:
How coincidental he was voting for **septimus **and then he went and got died-ed. :mad:
Normal Phase is obviously not scum with septimus, nor am I. And obviously special ed was not, either.
Silver Jan (5): Choie, Suburban Plankton, Red Skeezix, Inner Stickler, Weedy
Why, it’s top suspect** Suburban Plankton**, other somewhat suspect choie, who is doing absolutely nothing constructive this round, then we have Red Skeezix who is definitely not mafia with septimus, and we have** Inner Stickler **and Weedy.
Now, Inner Stickler and Weedy, I’ve refrained from commenting on very much, for strategic reasons.
I’m betting at least one of them is townie, possibly both. Maybe SP is townie. Maybe choie is townie. But of those on the Jan wagon,** methinks Red Skeezix is the one who is definitely not associated with septimus.**
There’s septimus before his vote switch, and Diver who I’ve grown less and less convinced is townie for his opportunistic votes and lack of pro-town discussion material. pedescribe who is inactive as a doornail and silly to double-vote me, I am thinking is just a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad townie. But wouldn’t mind seeing him go at some point, when other suspects are dead.
So let’s put these names on my mental chalkboard for a second, like a paranoid Glenn Beck (redundant) and see if I can’t see all the connections like a pro.
All of this is wrong. For the Town Vig to miss on Night 1 doesn’t surprise me; there’s too little information to fire blindly. “missed the deadline” might be a euphemism for “dithered in fear of killing a Townie.”
Who protected Septimus on Night Two? Septimus is immune to the first Bullet; have you been skimming?
As for two kill attempts being thwarted last Night, it sounds like you’re unfamiliar with the “probability paradox” associated with the airplane bomb:
You can’t use the unlikelihood of something you already know to be true to assess the unlikelihood of something else.
I’ll admit that I’m changing my mind in this game. I’ve been defending Shadow, thinking at least one of Pizza or Normal is Scum. Yet I don’t see any obvious Scum insincerity from Pizza or Normal, and they’ve surprised me by pursuing lines that Scum wouldn’t. This could all be super-WIFOM, but a number of things, especially Shadow’s faulty analyses above, makes me wonder if I’ve been wrong all along. With ShadowFacts unwilling to submit to requested “proofs” and with no Town Vig counterclaiming Red, the possibility of Scum Shadow is growing strong in my own mind.
One thing is clear: if Shadow really is Scum with the quadruple-voting power, his advantage will grow rapidly. If we misLynch toDay and suffer an NK toNight, we’ll have lost four votes altogether, and Shadow may truly be unLynchable.
Pizza has proposed a plan where Shadow gets Lynched toDay, first specifying a Lynch target for toMorrow. If Shadow does flip Town, we Lynch Red toMorrow. If we do this we either get 1 Scum for 1 Lynch or, if Shadow is Town after all, I think the whole scum house-of-cards may begin to fall apart.
Until the logic errors above, I was getting no clear “pings” from Shadow. But I’m also getting no strong pings from anyone else. The argument that Scum Shadow must be Lynched before he becomes unLynchable seems strong to me. (I’m almost suspicious of Shadow’s detractors because they aren’t double-voting Shadow yet. :dubious: )
Okay I lied, let’s look directly afterward and make sure we don’t miss anything.
IMMEDIATELY choie comes up and says she doesn’t think septimus is scummy for what he died. Which pinged me as odd for a newbie to say against all veteran reasoning, but fine. Then I launched into a big analysis about how wrong she was acting, and then her activity level dropped off the freaking planet.
Do you see why I find this a little… coincidental?
**Stickler **agrees that **Suburban **is double-talking Pizza. Something SP just accused me of regarding Red Skeezix.
Projecting?
I like Stickler for some of these sorts of posts. Not sure if scum. However, scum do like to play devils’ advocate and disagree with one another. I’d be more convinced if I saw more concrete evidence that Stickler really thought SP was scum.
So, my eye is on septimus, Stickler, choie, and SP.
Weedy, like choie, defends the timing.
So, my eye is on septimus, Stickler, choie, Weedy, and SP.
unrelated, but gnarly seems completely indifferent to the in-game events, doesn’t even comment on them. I find this townie. Only the scums would really be flinching at septimus’ near-death.
Is this distancing?
Mentions a vigilante.
Interesting because there’s been no evidence to date of there being a vigilante, until later on in the game.
Who would know there’s a vigilante in the game? Scums with the ability to protect other scums. The only purpose for this is… to defend against…
Say it with me.
An assassin.
Next day begins, and Hirka, Normal, Stickler all vote septimus right away.
Stickler presses him on the claim.
SP replies:
And Stickler responds:
I get mixed signals on Stickler then. I think he could be distancing or bussing, but I also get some signals he’s townie due to the above quote.
I like it.
And the point of all this, ladies and gentlemen, is to not just lynch septimus.
Because, you give him a chance to escape, who is going to agree with it?
His buddies.
Weedy doesn’t lay down a vote. This is when I start attacking choie. There’s a lot of noise because of that, so I’ll try to filter that out.
Weedy doesn’t want to vote for choie either.
Weedy doesn’t vote here either. Let’s see if and when he does.
choie doesn’t lay down a vote either. But to be fair, she was defending and could have been distracted. Weedy doesn’t really have an excuse. He seems to be stalling.
Suburban Plankton seems to be actively defending septimus, and bussing choie instead.
Indications favor Suburban Plankton being scum with septimus, and choie being the viable townie alternative lynch.
Indications favor Suburban Plankton and/or Weedy being scum with septimus, and choie and pedescribe being the viable townie alternative lynch.
Hirka is not scum with septimus.
Choie probably not scum with septimus. *Clearly *not scum with Normal.
Again no real comment from charlie on the septimus fiasco. I believe he’s completely out of the loop, not involved.
Townie read.
This is when I did a massive thing where I pointed out who said whose name in number of posts.
Click the arrow, read the context. I agree, why?
Stan is not keen on letting septimus go. Townie read, as always since my true analysis of him.
piles on septimus, doesn’t even try to let him go.
Again, townie read. And he’s even going after his own friggin suspect, MentalGuy.
Townie, townie, TOWN TOWN TOWN. (if septimus is scum)
MentalGuy reads as unperturbed by the septimus fiasco. And townie.
Plankton is CLEARLY distressed by my behavior.
A meaningless taunt.
He actually reacts to the taunt, and spends almost all his time today discussing alternatives to septimus.
What. A. Scum.
He takes my data and tries to direct the discussion towards the quiet folks. Mentions a lot of other names but doesn’t take a strong stance on them.
Smells of a caught mafioso trying not to further inflame anyone, but desperate to talk about others as suspects.
TO BE CONTINUED…
Keeping my eye on Diver, here’s a post of his which is noncommittal.
Sounds like a scum who needs to keep his head under the water, because his mates are being eaten alive.
Ah, Normal. You’re so Normal. It’s just a phase, though.
Okay, Normal picks up where I left off on TexCat. This doesn’t read scum or townie to me. I actually believe the scums would leap on a case, but not start one.
Next, septimus votes Normal Phase.
Hirka posts but doesn’t flinch or move his vote.
Well, well, well. Lookie here.
Who comes in and dives onto the TexCat case? Suspect* number two.*
And Tex’s response. Worth a read.
MWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAAA
Here I get the feeling that scums are leaping on TexCat. I reduce the wagon.
Mwhaahahahaha!
BECAUSE IT MATTERS!!!
Here, he doesn’t want to express a specific opinion of Suburban Plankton! These probing questions make him uneasy!
One little two little three little scumbags… who who who among you three are guilty? septimus, sure… but Plankton or Weedy? Plankton, or Weedy… or both?
Nice. Let’s see where he stands.
No flinch.
Talks to someone, no vote yet.
Oh me likey.
Well, this seems familiar to me.
Then, I am about to go after ShadowFacts hardcore.
Septimus (5): Inner Stickler [888], Stanislaus [893], gnarlycharlie [959], Mental Guy [968], Red Skeezix [1065]
ShadowFacts (5): Hirka T’Bawa [885], Askthepizzaguy [1030], Red Skeezix [1065], Normal Phase [1080], Hirka T’Bawa [1091]
TexCat (3): Normal Phase [1007], Suburban Plankton [1014], Septimus [1023]
Suburban Plankton (2): TexCat [1018], Weedy
Choie (1): Weedy [923]
Normal Phase (2): Choie [930], Septimus [1009]
Mental Guy (1): gnarlycharlie [959]
gnarlycharlie (1): Mental Guy [968]
Stanislaus (1): Askthepizzaguy [988]
Locked in: Hirka T’Bawa
Hirka locks in. But he didn’t flinch earlier. I think this may be coincidental.
SP and Weedy are both leaping all over Astral to make sure his vote tally is right.
Nervous, much?
I see…
Interesting point.
Oh snap.
So, Diver is scum with ShadowFacts, if SF is scum.
But, Diver is probably not scum with septimus. Interestink.
Boy did I ever call that.
Lightfoot tips the balance, but is not scum with septimus, don’t think.
Shadow seems completely unrelated to septimus. :dubious:
With TexCat in the lead, many many people post, but the tally doesn’t change for a while.
But SP makes certain Tex dies.
Septimus makes darn sure it’s not him who dies.
Shadow could still be scum. Not sure there’s a connection between him and septimus.
Why am I seeing the same three faces over and over again?
I’m 50/50 on Stickler. But, I’d like to leave Stickler alone for now for strategic reasons.
Septimus gotta die. If he’s scum:
Then, Red Skeezix gotta assassinate Suburban Plankton.
Then, Weedy gotta die.
If the game still happens, Stickler must claim.
I’m prepared to double-vote the following people:
Is the skimming thing a “scum tell” on this particular message board?
The “have you been skimming” feels tacked-on and disingenuous, and although I’m not as familiar with your customs here, I got a sense at the beginning of the game that “skimming” was a scum tell.
It’s not, in my experience. In my experience it’s lazy townies, or just plain old busy people with real lives. You know who hovers over the game like a cloud of death? Scumbags.
And pizzaguy.
And really enthusiastic townies, but they’re rarer.
Yes, it is fallacious thinking.
And I was never quite sure why, on any of those three things.
If you are guilty, you couldn’t have come up with worse timing for this line.
I approve… but man, shoot thyself in thy foot.
Oh be brave and take a stand. You know I ain’t gonna be protected at night.
Come on, *one *little sword through my skull, and it will be all over. You know you want to.
Too little, too late. Y’all had your chance to nibble on the Shadowy, Facty, kind of person. I hereby withdraw my support for the ShadowFacts lynch.
Steal my reasoning a day late, why don’t you.
evil cackle
Thanks for showing me they’re both probably innocent. I needed that.
When the Lords of slaughter are led to the slaughterhouse, I want you to remember the following:
Take risks. Safe play is scummy play.
You’d like us to muck things up with early lock-ins. That way it will be easier for the last-day gang to last-hour swing the last few votes in your last favor.
This will be the last thing you ever last do! Stop struggling and die!
In fact, I’d like to see a couple early lock-ins. This time, in reverse.
You folks who have been good enough to leave your votes unlocked until the last minute, why don’t you go ahead and take a stand at some point before it gets down to the wire. Your continued insistence on swinging the tally at the last few hours of the last day, tells me that you’re not interested in pressuring and voting scum, you’re interested in making sure nobody in your camp dies.
At SP’s insistence yesterday, I locked in on ShadowFacts when he was behind in the tally. That’s because I was sure he needed the pressure. But I openly challenge everyone I just accused to prove that you also have the cojones to take a risk, and stop overturning the will of everyone else in the final hours.
You really want to lock in on me, or Red Skeezix? Do it.
I completely agree with you that septimus is scum. (And that was quite the analysis, Pizza. My word.) It’s a pity you went off the boil for him yesterDay, though.
But I also still think Red is scum. This is only reinforced by the fact that septimus has taken the time today to attack Shadow’s (to me, very clear) reasoning about Red being scum. And if septimus isn’t on the same team as Shadow, (and I agree with you that this seems pretty likely) then that makes Shadow’s claims about blocking Red on a no-kill Night - always the simplest explanation - so much more believable.
I said before that I’d only double-vote if I didn’t mind which of two people swung. I sort of meant that in a “when hell freezes over” way, but it’s turned into more of a “when Birnam Wood shall come to Dunsinane” kind of way: I will happily see Red or septimus swing today. (And that’ll teach me to leave hostages to fortune.)
vote septimus
I won’t finish the Day voting for both of them of course, as that would be self-defeating. I’ll move my vote to which ever one is leading, probably as I leave work tomorrow which will be c. 7 hours before deadline. (So anyone who wants to muck around with the votes to save them will have to make it obvious by keeping their votes back until then.)
I quite like the rest of your case, particularly on the voting activity around TexCat. I hadn’t really noticed Weedy very much, which is interesting in itself. However, first things first! If we can get a scum lynch toDay, we can firm up a lot of the premises in your case.
OK, here’s a question - you seem to be placing a lot of credit on votes for septimus in your analysis of people (e.g., Hirka, gnarly, me). I wouldn’t be so quick to rule people out - the reason bussing works is that it looks very Townie. Is a vote for septimus really enough by itself to push people down/off your suspicion list?
Septimus is immune to the first Bullet; have you been skimming?
Ah, Normal. You’re so Normal. It’s just a phase, though.